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CMS vs DUK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CMS Energy (CMS) vs. Duke Energy (DUK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CMS and DUK offer defensive utility plays with dividend yields near 3%, low betas around 0.4, and year-to-date gains exceeding 9% amid sector strength.
- CMS recently beat Q1 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates at $1.13 adjusted, reaffirming full-year guidance of $3.83–$3.90.
- DUK benefits from regulatory approval combining its South Carolina utilities, projecting $2.3 billion in customer savings over 14 years, supporting long-term stability.
- DUK shows slightly stronger recent momentum with 10.65% YTD return versus CMS's 9.54%, alongside a higher analyst target upside.
- Tickeron's Trending AI Robots highlight high-performing bots with up to 163% annualized returns, offering strategies adaptable to utilities like these.
Introduction
In the utilities sector, CMS Energy and DUK Duke Energy stand out as regulated giants providing essential electric and gas services. This comparison analyzes their recent market positioning, performance, and growth drivers amid rising power demand from data centers and renewables. Income-focused investors seeking stability, dividend reliability, and exposure to defensive assets in volatile markets will find value in evaluating their relative strengths, business models, and sentiment shifts over recent market activity.
CMS Overview and Recent Performance
CMS Energy Corporation, headquartered in Michigan, serves 1.9 million electric and 1.8 million gas customers through its electric utility, gas utility, and clean energy segments. The company generates power from diverse sources including nuclear, renewables, and natural gas. In recent weeks, CMS shares traded around $76, reflecting a year-to-date gain of 9.54% within a 52-week range of $67.71–$80.36. Market cap stands at $23.5 billion, with a trailing P/E ratio of 21.06 and forward dividend yield of 3% following a quarterly declaration of $0.57 per share. Strong Q1 2026 results, with adjusted EPS of $1.13 beating estimates, and reaffirmed annual guidance have bolstered sentiment, despite minor pullbacks tied to broader sector rotations. Michigan's constructive regulatory environment continues to support capital investments and EPS growth targets of 6–8% long-term.
DUK Overview and Recent Performance
DUK Duke Energy Corporation, based in North Carolina, operates across the Southeast and Midwest, delivering electricity and natural gas via its electric utilities and infrastructure, and gas utilities segments. It powers customers with a mix of nuclear, renewables, natural gas, and coal. Shares recently hovered near $129, up 10.65% year-to-date in a 52-week range of $111–$134, backed by a $100 billion market cap, P/E of 20.38, and 3.31% dividend yield. Regulatory wins, including approval for combining South Carolina utilities with projected multibillion-dollar savings, have enhanced outlook amid data center growth. Recent market activity shows resilience with low volatility (beta 0.40), though shares dipped slightly on sector-wide pressures. Analyst targets average $139, signaling upside potential tied to infrastructure investments.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both CMS and DUK thrive as regulated multi-utilities with stable cash flows from essential services, but DUK's broader geographic footprint offers greater scale and diversification versus CMS's Michigan focus. Growth drivers include surging electricity demand from AI data centers, renewables expansion, and grid upgrades; DUK edges in regulatory catalysts like South Carolina approvals. Recent momentum favors DUK with superior YTD returns and higher price targets, though CMS shows earnings consistency. Risk profiles align with low betas and payout ratios under 70%, but DUK's size mitigates volatility better. Market sentiment reflects utilities' appeal as defensive havens, with trade-offs in yield (DUK higher) versus growth trajectory.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models currently lean toward DUK due to its relative momentum, larger scale for capital deployment, regulatory tailwinds, and stronger year-to-date positioning amid utilities sector trends. While CMS demonstrates solid earnings stability, DUK's higher analyst targets and dividend yield suggest greater probabilistic upside in the near term, barring shifts in interest rates or demand forecasts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMS is a StrongBuy and DUK is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMS’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileDUK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CMS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- DUK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMS’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DUK’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- DUK’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
CMS (@Electric Utilities) experienced а +2.12% price change this week, while DUK (@Electric Utilities) price change was +0.60% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electric Utilities industry was +0.73%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.38%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.66%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMS is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
DUK is expected to report earnings on Aug 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electric Utilities (+0.73% weekly)Electric utilities companies generate, transmit and distribute electricity to businesses/offices and residences. Companies may be owned by the government or investors or public shareholders, or a combination thereof. The industry also includes firms that buy and sell electricity. Companies in this industry typically require significant investments in infrastructure. Many firms in this industry pay substantial and regular dividends to shareholders. However, changes in interest rates (and their impact on debt burdens), natural disasters and changing commodity prices could be factors affecting energy utilities’ profit margins. NextEra Energy, Inc., Duke Energy Corporation, Dominion Energy Inc. and Southern Company are among U.S. electric utilities companies with the largest market capitalizations.
| CMS | DUK | CMS / DUK | |
| Capitalization | 22.7B | 97.4B | 23% |
| EBITDA | 3.4B | 17.6B | 19% |
| Gain YTD | 6.816 | 8.458 | 81% |
| P/E Ratio | 20.35 | 19.23 | 106% |
| Revenue | 8.82B | 33.2B | 27% |
| Total Cash | 175M | 2.14B | 8% |
| Total Debt | 19.1B | 91.2B | 21% |
CMS | DUK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 17 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 71 Overvalued | 44 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 46 | 28 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 64 | 72 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 53 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DUK's Valuation (44) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as CMS (71). This means that DUK’s stock grew similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
DUK's Profit vs Risk Rating (28) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as CMS (46). This means that DUK’s stock grew similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
CMS's SMR Rating (64) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (72). This means that CMS’s stock grew similarly to DUK’s over the last 12 months.
DUK's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as CMS (53). This means that DUK’s stock grew similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
DUK's P/E Growth Rating (53) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as CMS (54). This means that DUK’s stock grew similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
| CMS | DUK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 72% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 31% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 50% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 37% | 2 days ago 49% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 49% | 4 days ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 39% | 13 days ago 41% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 21% | 2 days ago 28% |
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CMS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMS has been closely correlated with DTE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CMS jumps, then DTE could also see price increases.
DUK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DUK has been closely correlated with SO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DUK jumps, then SO could also see price increases.