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CMS vs DUK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CMS Energy (CMS) vs. Duke Energy (DUK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CMS and DUK are both regulated electric utilities focused on rate-base growth and grid investments amid rising electricity demand.
- CMS recently reported Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.37, beating estimates, and reaffirmed full-year guidance of $3.83–$3.90 while shifting emphasis to regulated operations.
- DUK delivered stronger year-to-date performance of approximately 8.86% compared with CMS at 4.52%, with Q2 earnings scheduled for August 4, 2026.
- Both companies maintain defensive profiles with low betas, dividend yields near 3%, and multi-billion-dollar capital expenditure plans supporting long-term earnings visibility.
- Market sentiment for CMS reflects a portfolio shift toward higher-quality regulated assets, while DUK benefits from expanded five-year capital plans and recent dividend increases.
- Relative positioning favors DUK on scale and momentum, though both stocks trade in line with broader utilities sector stability.
Introduction
Investors and traders often compare CMS and DUK as representative names in the regulated utilities sector, where stable cash flows, regulatory mechanisms, and infrastructure spending provide defensive characteristics. This comparison examines recent performance, business fundamentals, and market positioning within the current environment of elevated electricity demand and interest-rate sensitivity. Portfolio managers seeking income generation, sector rotation opportunities, or relative-value analysis between mid-cap and large-cap utilities may find the side-by-side review particularly relevant for assessing trade-offs in growth visibility, risk exposure, and dividend sustainability.
CMS Overview and Recent Performance
CMS Energy Corporation operates primarily as a regulated electric and gas utility serving Michigan customers, with a strategic pivot toward rate-regulated businesses following the exit from certain non-utility renewable projects. In recent market activity, the stock has traded around $72, reflecting modest year-to-date gains of approximately 4.5% amid broader sector stability. Second-quarter 2026 results showed adjusted earnings per share of $0.37, exceeding consensus estimates, while the company reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.83 to $3.90. Sentiment has been supported by a planned $24 billion investment program aimed at enhancing grid infrastructure and rate-base growth, though reported net income declined year-over-year due to the portfolio transition. Analysts maintain a mix of Hold and Buy ratings with price targets generally in the mid-to-high $70s to low $80s.
DUK Overview and Recent Performance
Duke Energy Corporation is one of the largest U.S. electric utilities, serving customers across multiple states with a focus on regulated generation, transmission, and distribution. The stock recently closed near $125, delivering stronger year-to-date returns of approximately 8.9% relative to the broader market. First-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.93 exceeded the prior-year period, and the company has reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance range of $6.55 to $6.80. Recent developments include an expanded $103 billion five-year capital expenditure plan and a quarterly dividend increase, extending a century-long payout history. Upcoming second-quarter results, scheduled for release on August 4, 2026, are expected to show modest EPS growth. Analyst consensus leans toward Hold ratings with price targets clustered in the mid-to-high $130s, reflecting steady earnings visibility from infrastructure spending and regulatory frameworks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both companies operate within the regulated utilities sector, yet differ in scale and geographic reach: DUK manages a significantly larger asset base and customer footprint across multiple states, while CMS maintains a more concentrated Michigan presence. Growth drivers center on infrastructure investments for both, with CMS emphasizing a $24 billion regulated capex program and DUK advancing a $103 billion multi-year plan. Recent momentum shows DUK outperforming on a year-to-date basis, supported by dividend growth and earnings visibility ahead of its quarterly report. Risk factors include interest-rate sensitivity and regulatory outcomes, with CMS additionally navigating the transition from non-regulated activities. Market sentiment remains constructive for both amid sector demand for grid modernization, though DUK’s larger size provides greater liquidity and broader analyst coverage. Trade-offs include CMS’s potentially higher earnings growth rate target (6–8%) versus DUK’s established scale and defensive income profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as stronger year-to-date price performance, larger capital expenditure visibility, and upcoming earnings catalysts, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a probabilistic preference to DUK over CMS for relative positioning within the utilities sector. Trend consistency and stability metrics appear more favorable for the larger operator, though both names exhibit defensive characteristics that could support sector allocation depending on broader market conditions and interest-rate developments.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMS is a Buy and DUK is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMS’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileDUK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CMS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- DUK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMS’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DUK’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- DUK’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
CMS (@Electric Utilities) experienced а -1.40% price change this week, while DUK (@Electric Utilities) price change was +0.12% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electric Utilities industry was +0.16%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.23%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.24%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMS is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
DUK is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electric Utilities (+0.16% weekly)Electric utilities companies generate, transmit and distribute electricity to businesses/offices and residences. Companies may be owned by the government or investors or public shareholders, or a combination thereof. The industry also includes firms that buy and sell electricity. Companies in this industry typically require significant investments in infrastructure. Many firms in this industry pay substantial and regular dividends to shareholders. However, changes in interest rates (and their impact on debt burdens), natural disasters and changing commodity prices could be factors affecting energy utilities’ profit margins. NextEra Energy, Inc., Duke Energy Corporation, Dominion Energy Inc. and Southern Company are among U.S. electric utilities companies with the largest market capitalizations.
| CMS | DUK | CMS / DUK | |
| Capitalization | 22B | 96.3B | 23% |
| EBITDA | 3.3B | 17.6B | 19% |
| Gain YTD | 2.482 | 7.173 | 35% |
| P/E Ratio | 21.06 | 18.60 | 113% |
| Revenue | 8.81B | 33.2B | 27% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 2.14B | - |
| Total Debt | 19.3B | 91.2B | 21% |
CMS | DUK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 68 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 60 Fair valued | 36 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 32 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 67 | 72 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 60 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DUK's Valuation (36) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as CMS (60). This means that DUK’s stock grew similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
DUK's Profit vs Risk Rating (32) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as CMS (50). This means that DUK’s stock grew similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
CMS's SMR Rating (67) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (72). This means that CMS’s stock grew similarly to DUK’s over the last 12 months.
DUK's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as CMS (61). This means that DUK’s stock grew similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
CMS's P/E Growth Rating (51) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (60). This means that CMS’s stock grew similarly to DUK’s over the last 12 months.
| CMS | DUK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 37% | 2 days ago 34% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 39% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 38% | 2 days ago 37% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 42% | 9 days ago 41% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 35% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 30% | 2 days ago 46% |
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CMS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMS has been closely correlated with DTE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CMS jumps, then DTE could also see price increases.
DUK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DUK has been closely correlated with SO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DUK jumps, then SO could also see price increases.