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CMS vs DUK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CMS Energy (CMS) vs. Duke Energy (DUK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale gap: Duke Energy (DUK) carries a market capitalization near $99 billion, roughly four times larger than CMS Energy (CMS) at approximately $21 billion.
- Growth profile: CMS targets long-term adjusted EPS (earnings per share) growth of 6%–8%, while Duke Energy guides to 5%–7% growth through 2030.
- Momentum contrast: Duke has outperformed CMS over recent months, with CMS trading near the lower end of its 52-week range.
- Demand catalyst: Duke's substantial data center pipeline (about 7.6 gigawatts of signed agreements) is a more visible load-growth driver than CMS's Michigan-centric expansion.
- Income appeal: Both offer defensive, regulated-utility characteristics and dividend yields in the mid-3% range.
Introduction
Utilities occupy a distinct corner of the equity market, prized for stable cash flows, regulated earnings, and dependable dividends. CMS Energy (CMS) and Duke Energy (DUK) both fit that profile, yet they differ sharply in scale, geography, and growth catalysts. This stock comparison is most relevant for investors and traders weighing a large-cap diversified utility against a smaller, regionally concentrated operator, as well as for those evaluating relative performance within the electric-utility sector. By examining recent market activity, business fundamentals, and market positioning, this article aims to clarify how these two names stack up in the current environment.
CMS Overview and Recent Performance
CMS Energy Corporation is a Michigan-based energy provider whose primary business is Consumers Energy, a regulated electric and natural gas utility. The company also operates independent power generation through its NorthStar Clean Energy segment. In recent weeks, CMS has simplified its portfolio by announcing it will exit non-utility renewables development, retaining Michigan-based assets to focus more fully on regulated energy services.
The stock has shown relative weakness over recent months, underperforming both the broader market and its utility peer group and trading near the lower end of its 52-week range. Sentiment has been pressured by a year-over-year decline in quarterly earnings, with adjusted EPS falling versus the prior-year period, and by concerns around environmental compliance costs tied to coal-ash disposal. On the positive side, management reaffirmed full-year guidance and introduced 2027 earnings guidance, while continuing to target long-term adjusted EPS growth of 6%–8%, supported by a planned capital program of nearly $24 billion through 2030.
DUK Overview and Recent Performance
Duke Energy Corporation, headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, is one of the largest electric power holding companies in the United States. It serves roughly 7.9 million electric customers across the Carolinas, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky, along with about 1.6 million natural gas customers. Its regulated footprint, large nuclear fleet, and multi-state rate recovery mechanisms define its business model.
In recent market activity, Duke has outperformed CMS, with shares posting positive year-to-date gains while still trailing the broader S&P 500 over the trailing year. Recent quarters featured earnings beats, supported by the recovery of infrastructure investments and rising demand from data centers and commercial customers. Duke has signed approximately 7.6 gigawatts of data center electric service agreements, with construction already underway on a meaningful share. The company has also strengthened its balance sheet by closing more than $5 billion in strategic transactions, including a minority stake sale in its Florida utility and the sale of its Tennessee gas business.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most immediate contrast between these two names is scale and diversification. Duke's multi-state footprint and roughly $103 billion capital plan give it broader exposure to electrification, data center load growth, and a larger, more diversified rate base. CMS, by comparison, operates primarily within Michigan and carries a more concentrated regional and regulatory profile, but it also offers a higher long-term EPS growth target.
On momentum, Duke has held up better in recent trading, benefiting from visible demand catalysts and balance-sheet strengthening, while CMS has lagged amid softer quarterly results and portfolio simplification. Risk factors also differ: CMS faces environmental-compliance and coal-ash remediation costs, whereas Duke manages storm-related operating costs and the execution risks of a large generation build-out, including new gas and nuclear projects.
From a sentiment standpoint, both remain defensive, income-oriented holdings with mid-3% dividend yields, but Duke's earnings surprise history has recently been stronger than CMS's, which has seen downward estimate pressure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, catalyst visibility, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward Duke Energy (DUK) in the current environment. Duke's stronger recent momentum, more diversified rate base, and substantial contracted data center pipeline provide comparatively more visible growth drivers. However, this is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive ranking; CMS Energy's (CMS) higher guided EPS growth rate and cleaner regulated focus could regain favor if its earnings trajectory stabilizes. As market conditions evolve, the relative positioning of these two utilities may shift accordingly.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMS is a Buy and DUK is a Buy.
CMS | DUK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 49 Fair valued | 27 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 35 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 66 | 70 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 58 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DUK's Valuation (27) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as CMS (49). This means that DUK’s stock grew similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
DUK's Profit vs Risk Rating (35) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as CMS (61). This means that DUK’s stock grew similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
CMS's SMR Rating (66) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (70). This means that CMS’s stock grew similarly to DUK’s over the last 12 months.
DUK's Price Growth Rating (59) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as CMS (61). This means that DUK’s stock grew similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
CMS's P/E Growth Rating (53) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (58). This means that CMS’s stock grew similarly to DUK’s over the last 12 months.
| CMS | DUK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 44% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 49% | 4 days ago 33% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 49% | 4 days ago 48% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 47% | 4 days ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 43% | 4 days ago 40% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 48% | 14 days ago 50% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 43% | 12 days ago 41% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 48% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 39% | 4 days ago 29% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMS’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while DUK’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CMS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- DUK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMS’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DUK’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- DUK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CMS (@Electric Utilities) experienced а +2.86% price change this week, while DUK (@Electric Utilities) price change was +3.38% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electric Utilities industry was +1.69%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.99%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.68%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMS is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
DUK is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electric Utilities (+1.69% weekly)Electric utilities companies generate, transmit and distribute electricity to businesses/offices and residences. Companies may be owned by the government or investors or public shareholders, or a combination thereof. The industry also includes firms that buy and sell electricity. Companies in this industry typically require significant investments in infrastructure. Many firms in this industry pay substantial and regular dividends to shareholders. However, changes in interest rates (and their impact on debt burdens), natural disasters and changing commodity prices could be factors affecting energy utilities’ profit margins. NextEra Energy, Inc., Duke Energy Corporation, Dominion Energy Inc. and Southern Company are among U.S. electric utilities companies with the largest market capitalizations.
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CMS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMS has been closely correlated with DTE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CMS jumps, then DTE could also see price increases.
DUK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DUK has been closely correlated with SO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DUK jumps, then SO could also see price increases.