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CMS vs DUK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CMS Energy (CMS) vs. Duke Energy (DUK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CMS is a Michigan-focused regulated utility with roughly 1.9 million electric and 1.8 million natural gas customers, while DUK operates a far larger multi-state franchise serving about 7.9 million electric and 1.6 million gas customers.
- DUK has outpaced the broader market in 2026, rising roughly 8% year to date, whereas CMS has lagged its utility peer group over the past six months.
- Both companies reaffirmed their earnings-per-share (EPS) guidance, but CMS targets faster long-term growth (6%–8% annually) than DUK (5%–7% through 2030).
- DUK holds a much larger data-center demand pipeline (about 7.8 gigawatts of signed agreements), a catalyst CMS is only beginning to tap at a smaller scale.
- Both stocks offer defensive, dividend-oriented profiles, making this comparison most relevant to income and low-volatility investors evaluating relative value and momentum.
Introduction
Utilities are often grouped together as a single "defensive" asset class, yet individual companies can diverge sharply in scale, geography, growth drivers, and market sentiment. This stock comparison examines CMS (CMS Energy Corporation) and DUK (Duke Energy Corporation) side by side. The two names share a regulated-utility business model and dependable dividends, but they differ in size, service territory, and exposure to emerging electricity demand from data centers. Investors and traders weighing income stability, relative performance, and market positioning may find this analysis useful when deciding how to allocate capital across the electric utility sector.
CMS Overview and Recent Performance
CMS is a Michigan-based energy provider whose primary business is Consumers Energy, a regulated electric and natural gas utility. The company also owns independent power generation assets. In recent weeks, the stock has traded in the mid-to-high $60s range, and its six-month relative performance has trailed the broader utility industry, reflecting softer momentum despite generally constructive fundamentals.
Operationally, CMS reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.13, up from $1.02 a year earlier, and reaffirmed full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $3.83 to $3.90. Management has expressed confidence toward the high end of its 6%–8% long-term EPS growth range. The company also raised its annual dividend to $2.28 per share, marking its 20th consecutive annual increase. A supportive Michigan regulatory environment—including approval of the majority of a recent electric rate request—and a nearly $24 billion capital plan for 2026–2030 have underpinned sentiment, even as coal-ash disposal costs remain a watch item.
DUK Overview and Recent Performance
DUK is a Charlotte, North Carolina-based utility serving millions of customers across the Carolinas, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky, with roughly 51,000 megawatts (MW) of generation capacity. The stock has shown comparatively stronger momentum, gaining around 8% year to date and trading near recent highs in the mid-$120s to low-$130s range.
Recent results have been solid: first-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.93 beat estimates on higher revenue, and management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 alongside a 5%–7% long-term growth target. A defining theme for DUK is its contracted data-center load—roughly 7.8 gigawatts (GW) of signed electric service agreements and a late-stage pipeline of about 15.4 GW. The company is executing a $103 billion capital plan, recently closed $5.3 billion in strategic transactions, and marked its 100th consecutive year of dividend payments. Rising depreciation, storm-related costs, and affordability concerns in rate cases represent the principal offsets.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is scale. DUK is a multi-state operator with roughly four times the electric customer base of CMS, giving it broader geographic diversification but also greater exposure to multi-state regulatory and storm-related risk. CMS offers a more concentrated, Michigan-centric profile with a slightly faster stated EPS growth target.
On growth drivers, DUK holds a substantial advantage in data-center and large-load demand, with gigawatts of signed agreements and a late-stage pipeline that could add $5 billion to $10 billion to its capital plan. CMS is pursuing similar opportunities—including battery storage and renewable expansion—but at a more modest scale. In terms of recent momentum and market sentiment, DUK has outperformed, while CMS trades at a lower price-to-earnings ratio and a more attractive valuation on some measures. The trade-off is essentially between stronger recent price momentum and scale (DUK) versus faster targeted growth and relative valuation (CMS).
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor DUK in the current environment. The stock demonstrates stronger trend consistency and relative performance, backed by a more robust contracted-demand pipeline and constructive regulatory momentum across its Carolinas footprint. That said, CMS presents a credible case on valuation and long-term growth targeting. A probabilistic framework would assign a higher current weighting to DUK for momentum and catalysts, while noting that CMS remains a stable, lower-volatility alternative that could appeal to income-focused investors.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMS is a Buy and DUK is a Buy.
CMS in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026
The 10-day moving average for CMS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CMS as a result. In 39 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 45%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CMS just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where CMS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
CMS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.77% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMS advanced for three days, in 168 of 345 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 105 of 260 cases where CMS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 40%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CMS moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 12 of the 31 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 39%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 25 of 69 cases where CMS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 36%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
CMS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 51, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CMS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.302) is normal, around the industry mean (2.063). P/E Ratio (21.051) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.917). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.257) is also within normal values, averaging (1.785). Dividend Yield (0.033) settles around the average of (0.053) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.291) is also within normal values, averaging (187.392).
DUK in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026
DUK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 32 of 48 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DUK as a result. In 54 of 98 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DUK just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where DUK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The 10-day moving average for DUK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +3.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DUK advanced for three days, in 170 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 147 of 300 cases where DUK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 49%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 16 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DUK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
DUK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 51, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DUK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.847) is normal, around the industry mean (2.063). P/E Ratio (19.128) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.917). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.112) is also within normal values, averaging (1.785). Dividend Yield (0.034) settles around the average of (0.053) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.756) is also within normal values, averaging (187.392).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
CMS | DUK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 75 Overvalued | 53 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 21 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 66 | 70 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 54 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DUK's Valuation (53) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as CMS (75). This means that DUK’s stock grew similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
DUK's Profit vs Risk Rating (21) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as CMS (44). This means that DUK’s stock grew similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
CMS's SMR Rating (66) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (70). This means that CMS’s stock grew similarly to DUK’s over the last 12 months.
DUK's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as CMS (48). This means that DUK’s stock grew similarly to CMS’s over the last 12 months.
CMS's P/E Growth Rating (46) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (54). This means that CMS’s stock grew similarly to DUK’s over the last 12 months.
| CMS | DUK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 39% | 3 days ago 32% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 36% | 3 days ago 43% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 45% | 3 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 44% | 3 days ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 45% | 7 days ago 41% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 27% | 3 days ago 43% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 40% | 3 days ago 49% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMS’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while DUK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CMS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- DUK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMS’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DUK’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMS’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- DUK’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CMS (@Electric Utilities) experienced а +0.75% price change this week, while DUK (@Electric Utilities) price change was +1.93% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electric Utilities industry was +0.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.37%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMS is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
DUK is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electric Utilities (+0.47% weekly)Electric utilities companies generate, transmit and distribute electricity to businesses/offices and residences. Companies may be owned by the government or investors or public shareholders, or a combination thereof. The industry also includes firms that buy and sell electricity. Companies in this industry typically require significant investments in infrastructure. Many firms in this industry pay substantial and regular dividends to shareholders. However, changes in interest rates (and their impact on debt burdens), natural disasters and changing commodity prices could be factors affecting energy utilities’ profit margins. NextEra Energy, Inc., Duke Energy Corporation, Dominion Energy Inc. and Southern Company are among U.S. electric utilities companies with the largest market capitalizations.
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DUK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DUK has been closely correlated with SO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DUK jumps, then SO could also see price increases.