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EXPE vs TNL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Expedia Group (EXPE) vs. Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- EXPE (Expedia Group) is a high-growth online travel agency (OTA), while TNL (Travel + Leisure Co.) operates a vacation-ownership and travel-club model — two very different businesses within the same travel sector.
- EXPE has posted double-digit revenue and bookings growth with expanding margins, while TNL offers steadier, more consistent execution at a lower valuation with a higher dividend yield.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: TNL — based on trend consistency, stability, valuation, and analyst conviction, Travel + Leisure Co. is the ticker of choice in this comparison.
- Recent market activity has seen EXPE pressured by concerns over artificial-intelligence (AI) agents disintermediating online travel platforms, while TNL has benefited from repeated upward guidance revisions.
- For more information on each ticker's major developments and daily price action, explore the EXPE Major News and EXPE Today's Price Move pages, as well as TNL Major News and TNL Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated systems are applying these signals in real time, explore the curated Trending AI Robots section.
Introduction
Investors screening the travel sector often encounter two very different companies that share a single theme: consumer demand for leisure. EXPE, the parent of Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo, and Trivago, is the world's second-largest online travel agency by bookings and a direct play on digital travel distribution. TNL is a vacation-ownership, travel-club, and lifestyle-brand operator behind Club Wyndham, WorldMark, and RCI. This stock comparison is relevant to investors weighing a high-growth, higher-valuation growth name against a steadier, income-oriented leisure business, and to traders assessing relative performance, market positioning, and momentum between the two.
EXPE Overview and Recent Performance
EXPE operates a portfolio of online travel brands, earning the bulk of its revenue from transaction fees on lodging bookings, supplemented by advertising and its business-to-business (B2B) segment serving travel partners. In recent quarters, the company delivered strong operating results: first-quarter 2026 revenue rose roughly 15% year over year to about $3.43 billion, with a sharp swing to operating income, and management subsequently raised its full-year revenue outlook to a midpoint near $16.1 billion.
Despite this fundamental momentum, EXPE has experienced notable volatility in recent weeks. Shares pulled back roughly 10% at one point amid investor concerns that AI-powered agents from major technology platforms could reduce reliance on traditional online travel agencies, a debate that has pressured peers across the sector. Supporting factors include a new $5 billion share-repurchase authorization, a modest quarterly dividend, and growth in its B2B platform, which has been expanding faster than its consumer business. These developments leave EXPE with strong catalysts but a higher valuation and greater sensitivity to AI-related sentiment shifts.
TNL Overview and Recent Performance
TNL is a diversified leisure-travel company focused on vacation ownership (timeshare) sales, travel-club memberships, and lifestyle brands, including Club Wyndham, WorldMark, RCI, Margaritaville Vacation Club, and Accor Vacation Club. Its model blends one-time vacation-ownership sales with recurring service and membership fees, providing a steadier revenue base than a purely transactional online marketplace.
In recent market activity, TNL has shown consistency. Its third-quarter 2026 results reflected mid-single-digit revenue growth and a roughly 23% year-over-year increase in earnings per share (EPS), and management again raised full-year guidance for adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) and gross vacation-ownership interest (VOI) sales. The company completed the acquisition of Spinnaker Resorts ahead of schedule and has expanded its new-brand pipeline. With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in the low double digits, a higher dividend yield than EXPE, and leverage near the low end of its peer group, TNL presents a stability-oriented profile supported by a consensus "Strong Buy" analyst rating and an average price target well above recent trading levels.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively monitor and trade thousands of different tickers across varied strategies, timeframes, and risk profiles. Because not every bot suits every market condition, Tickeron curates only its most effective and currently relevant systems into a dedicated Trending AI Robots section. These bots differ in trading style — from short-term momentum to longer-horizon trend-following — and each carries its own performance statistics, win rates, and set of covered tickers, giving traders a range of tools matched to current market positioning. For investors seeking a data-driven view of relative performance between names such as EXPE and TNL, exploring the Trending AI Robots page offers a practical way to observe how automated strategies are navigating these markets in real time.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ sharply in business model. EXPE is an asset-light, transaction-driven platform whose growth depends on booking volumes, marketing efficiency, and its expanding B2B distribution; its recent results show faster top-line growth but greater exposure to competitive and AI-driven disruption. TNL, by contrast, owns and manages resort inventory and generates recurring membership and service fees, producing a more predictable earnings stream with less sensitivity to search-engine and AI traffic dynamics.
On momentum, EXPE holds the growth advantage, while TNL has shown more consistent, lower-volatility performance and repeated upward guidance revisions. Risk profiles also diverge: EXPE carries a higher beta and a premium valuation, whereas TNL trades at a lower multiple and returns more capital to shareholders through dividends. Sector exposure is shared, but the trade-off is between growth and stability — and between paying a premium for expansion versus a discount for consistency.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would currently favor TNL. The analysis emphasizes trend consistency and stability: TNL has delivered repeated earnings beats, raised guidance across consecutive quarters, and maintained a lower valuation with a more attractive dividend yield and a "Strong Buy" analyst consensus. While EXPE presents stronger growth momentum and meaningful capital-return catalysts, its higher valuation and current sensitivity to AI-disintermediation concerns introduce greater near-term uncertainty. In relative positioning terms, TNL offers a more favorable balance of consistency, valuation, and analyst conviction — making it the more probable candidate for the AI's current preference, though both stocks remain subject to broader travel-demand and macro conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is EXPE is a Hold and TNL is a Buy.
EXPE in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026
The 10-day moving average for EXPE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 44 of 60 cases where EXPE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on EXPE as a result. In 61 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for EXPE just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where EXPE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
EXPE moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.75% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EXPE advanced for three days, in 233 of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for EXPE moved out of overbought territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 33 of the 48 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 69%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EXPE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
EXPE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for EXPE entered a downward trend on October 15, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. EXPE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: EXPE's P/B Ratio (29.681) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.364). P/E Ratio (18.110) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.229). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.694) is also within normal values, averaging (1.617). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.186) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.315) is also within normal values, averaging (2.686).
TNL in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026
The 10-day moving average for TNL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TNL as a result. In 63 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
TNL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TNL advanced for three days, in 201 of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 155 of 250 cases where TNL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for TNL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TNL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
TNL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TNL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-4.542) is normal, around the industry mean (0.364). P/E Ratio (19.874) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.229). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (1.617). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.186) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.027) is also within normal values, averaging (2.686).
EXPE | TNL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 87 | 45 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 53 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 10 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 81 | 6 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TNL's Valuation (53) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for EXPE (86) in the Other Consumer Services industry. This means that TNL’s stock grew somewhat faster than EXPE’s over the last 12 months.
TNL's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as EXPE (44) in the Other Consumer Services industry. This means that TNL’s stock grew similarly to EXPE’s over the last 12 months.
TNL's SMR Rating (3) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as EXPE (10) in the Other Consumer Services industry. This means that TNL’s stock grew similarly to EXPE’s over the last 12 months.
TNL's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as EXPE (43) in the Other Consumer Services industry. This means that TNL’s stock grew similarly to EXPE’s over the last 12 months.
TNL's P/E Growth Rating (6) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is significantly better than the same rating for EXPE (81) in the Other Consumer Services industry. This means that TNL’s stock grew significantly faster than EXPE’s over the last 12 months.
| EXPE | TNL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 67% | 30 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EXPE’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TNL’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- EXPE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TNL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EXPE’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TNL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EXPE’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TNL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
EXPE (@Consumer Sundries) experienced а +5.29% price change this week, while TNL (@Consumer Sundries) price change was +15.09% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Consumer Sundries industry was +3.11%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.00%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.17%.
Reported Earning Dates
EXPE is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
TNL is expected to report earnings on Feb 24, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Consumer Sundries (+3.11% weekly)Consumer sundries companies make products that usually do not have another classification, such as lawn and garden products, pest-control products, pet food and pet products like leashes, collars, and harnesses. Central Garden & Pet Company and Dogness (International) Corporation are examples of companies operating in this industry.
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EXPE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EXPE has been closely correlated with BKNG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if EXPE jumps, then BKNG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To EXPE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPE | 100% | +4.57% | ||
| BKNG - EXPE | 74% Closely correlated | +3.79% | ||
| ABNB - EXPE | 54% Loosely correlated | +4.09% | ||
| MMYT - EXPE | 51% Loosely correlated | +6.84% | ||
| TRIP - EXPE | 45% Loosely correlated | +2.39% | ||
| TNL - EXPE | 45% Loosely correlated | +5.37% | ||
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TNL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TNL has been loosely correlated with NCLH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 57% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TNL jumps, then NCLH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TNL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TNL | 100% | +5.37% | ||
| NCLH - TNL | 57% Loosely correlated | +2.11% | ||
| CCL - TNL | 57% Loosely correlated | +4.23% | ||
| SABR - TNL | 52% Loosely correlated | +3.09% | ||
| RCL - TNL | 51% Loosely correlated | +4.52% | ||
| VIK - TNL | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.47% | ||
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