Advertisement
FAST vs FERG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Fastenal (FAST) vs. Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FAST has posted double-digit sales growth in recent quarters, driven by managed inventory adoption and share gains, but trades at a premium valuation relative to distribution peers.
- FERG is a larger, more diversified distributor growing in the low-to-mid single digits, with momentum concentrated in non-residential and HVAC markets.
- Fastenal carries a near debt-free balance sheet and returns roughly 80% of net income to shareholders, while Ferguson operates with modest leverage and an active acquisition strategy.
- Both stocks benefit from long-term industrial and construction demand trends, but their growth profiles, margins, and risk exposures differ meaningfully.
- The AI-driven comparison hinges on trend consistency, stability, and catalysts rather than any single valuation metric.
Introduction
Industrial distribution is a sector where scale, service density, and disciplined execution often determine which companies outgrow their markets. FAST (Fastenal) and FERG (Ferguson Enterprises) are two of North America's most prominent names in this space, yet they serve different niches: Fastenal focuses on industrial and construction supplies such as fasteners and safety products, while Ferguson concentrates on plumbing, HVAC, and water solutions. This stock comparison examines their relative performance, market positioning, and momentum, providing a framework for traders and investors weighing two quality operators against very different growth and valuation profiles.
FAST Overview and Recent Performance
Fastenal Company is a wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies, known for its fasteners, safety products, cutting tools, and an expanding vending and managed inventory platform. The company's business model leans heavily on placing Fastenal Managed Inventory (FMI) devices and on-site services inside large customer facilities, which now account for roughly 45% of sales and have supported deepening customer relationships.
In recent quarters, FAST has delivered accelerating top-line growth. Daily sales growth strengthened from about 12% in the first quarter to nearly 15% in the second, reflecting share gains, contract wins, and broad-based demand across manufacturing and non-residential construction. Operating margin has held near 21%, and return on invested capital (ROIC, a measure of how efficiently a company uses its capital to generate profit) expanded to its highest level in more than a decade. The company also announced a CEO transition, with Jeff Watts succeeding Dan Florness, signaling continuity in its strategic direction.
Sentiment has been supported by strong cash generation and consistent shareholder returns, but valuation remains a focal point. Fastenal's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, a common measure of what investors pay for each dollar of profit, sits well above the trade-distributor average, leaving limited room for disappointment if industrial demand softens or cost inflation pressures margins.
FERG Overview and Recent Performance
Ferguson Enterprises is North America's largest value-added distributor of water and air solutions, serving specialized professionals across plumbing, HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning), appliances, lighting, and water and wastewater markets. With annual sales of roughly $31 billion and more than 1,700 locations, Ferguson operates at a scale far larger than Fastenal and relies on a balanced mix of residential and non-residential construction demand.
Recent performance has been steady rather than spectacular. FERG reported mid-single-digit sales growth in its most recent quarters, with operating margin expansion and a return to residential growth despite a challenging housing backdrop. Non-residential and HVAC demand have been the clear bright spots, and management raised full-year guidance after a stronger-than-expected first half. The company completed several acquisitions during the period, including the FloWorks transaction, adding roughly $1.4 billion in annualized revenue across eight deals year-to-date.
Ferguson has also been simplifying its corporate structure, completing the cancellation of its secondary London Stock Exchange listing. With a $2 billion share repurchase authorization and a quarterly dividend of $0.89 per share, capital returns remain a priority, though the company carries modest net debt relative to Fastenal's nearly debt-free balance sheet.
Trending AI Robots
For investors who prefer a systematic, data-driven approach to stock selection, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of its AI trading bots. Tickeron maintains hundreds of AI Trading Bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance statistics, and set of securities. Because market conditions change constantly, only the bots best suited to the current environment earn a place in the Trending AI Robots section. This curation helps traders filter through a large universe of automated strategies to identify those demonstrating the most relevant recent performance. Explore the Trending AI Robots page to see which strategies are currently positioned for names like these and beyond.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is growth versus scale. FAST is growing revenue at a double-digit clip through organic share gains and deeper customer penetration, but investors pay a premium for that momentum. FERG grows more slowly, using acquisitions and market outperformance to compound at a steadier, lower rate while trading at a more moderate valuation.
Business mix also separates them. Fastenal's exposure skews toward manufacturing and industrial production, making it sensitive to factory activity and capital spending. Ferguson's exposure spans residential and non-residential construction, water infrastructure, and HVAC, giving it a broader set of demand drivers but also exposure to housing softness and interest-rate-sensitive activity.
On financial strength, Fastenal's near debt-free balance sheet and high ROIC stand out, while Ferguson uses modest leverage (net debt to adjusted EBITDA, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, around 1.3x) to fund acquisitions and buybacks. Risk profiles differ accordingly: Fastenal's main risk is its premium valuation and concentration in industrial end markets, while Ferguson's key sensitivities are residential construction volumes and integration of its acquisition pipeline.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin stability, and catalyst strength, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward FAST in the current environment. Fastenal's accelerating daily sales growth, record ROIC, expanding managed-inventory footprint, and consistent shareholder returns suggest a more robust and persistent uptrend than Ferguson's steadier, acquisition-supported growth. That said, the AI's preference is expressed in probabilistic terms: Fastenal's premium valuation introduces the possibility of mean reversion if momentum cools, while Ferguson's diversified model and improving guidance offer a more balanced, lower-volatility alternative. The relative positioning favors Fastenal on trend and momentum, with Ferguson remaining competitive on valuation and diversification.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FAST is a Buy and FERG is a Buy.
Momentum Indicator for FAST turns positive, indicating new upward trend
FAST saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 83 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 58 of the 83 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FAST just turned positive on September 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where FAST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
FAST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FAST advanced for three days, in 213 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FAST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
FAST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. FAST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: FAST's P/B Ratio (14.871) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.092). P/E Ratio (44.686) is within average values for comparable stocks, (1.310). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.357) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.500) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.447) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
FERG in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
FERG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 25 of 34 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FERG's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 23 of 32 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FERG as a result. In 59 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FERG just turned positive on September 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where FERG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +0.71% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FERG advanced for three days, in 224 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 174 of 313 cases where FERG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 42 of 67 cases where FERG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FERG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
FERG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. FERG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.112) is normal, around the industry mean (4.092). P/E Ratio (23.026) is within average values for comparable stocks, (1.310). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.426) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.500) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.351) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
FAST | FERG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 40 | 39 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 35 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 30 | 31 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 27 | 56 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FERG's Valuation (76) in the null industry is in the same range as FAST (93) in the Wholesale Distributors industry. This means that FERG’s stock grew similarly to FAST’s over the last 12 months.
FERG's Profit vs Risk Rating (35) in the null industry is in the same range as FAST (55) in the Wholesale Distributors industry. This means that FERG’s stock grew similarly to FAST’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's SMR Rating (30) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as FERG (31) in the null industry. This means that FAST’s stock grew similarly to FERG’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's Price Growth Rating (20) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FERG (55) in the null industry. This means that FAST’s stock grew somewhat faster than FERG’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's P/E Growth Rating (27) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as FERG (56) in the null industry. This means that FAST’s stock grew similarly to FERG’s over the last 12 months.
| FAST | FERG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 72% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 49% | 22 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 56% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FAST’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while FERG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- FAST’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- FERG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FAST’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FERG’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FAST’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- FERG’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
FAST (@Electronics Distributors) experienced а +0.94% price change this week, while FERG (@Electronics Distributors) price change was +2.25% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronics Distributors industry was +0.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.32%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.73%.
Reported Earning Dates
FAST is expected to report earnings on Jan 19, 2027.
FERG is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronics Distributors (+0.02% weekly)Electronics distributors are companies that are involved in distribution of one or more of the following: electronic components, computer products/ peripherals and software products & services. Several electronics distributors are also becoming the point of contact for technical/pre- & post-sale support in many cases, in an attempt to bolster their position in the market. Tariffs and/or cross-border trade barriers are some of the potential threats to the electronics supply chain, but that could also potentially lead to re-directing to markets where tariffs/restrictions are lower depending on demand. The industry is also vulnerable in the event of economic slowdowns. Arrow Electronics, Inc., SYNNEX Corporation and Versum Materials, Inc. are some of the major electronics distributors in the U.S.
Advertisement
FAST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FAST has been loosely correlated with GWW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FAST jumps, then GWW could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FAST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST | 100% | +0.46% | ||
| GWW - FAST | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.61% | ||
| FERG - FAST | 47% Loosely correlated | -0.29% | ||
| WSO - FAST | 42% Loosely correlated | +7.22% | ||
| QXO - FAST | 41% Loosely correlated | +6.89% | ||
| CNM - FAST | 39% Loosely correlated | +2.17% | ||
More | ||||
FERG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FERG has been loosely correlated with AIT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FERG jumps, then AIT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FERG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FERG | 100% | -0.29% | ||
| AIT - FERG | 59% Loosely correlated | -5.75% | ||
| CNM - FERG | 56% Loosely correlated | +2.17% | ||
| WSO - FERG | 56% Loosely correlated | +7.22% | ||
| WCC - FERG | 53% Loosely correlated | -7.23% | ||
| SITE - FERG | 51% Loosely correlated | +5.87% | ||
More | ||||