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FDX vs GXO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? FedEx Corporation (FDX) vs. GXO Logistics (GXO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FDX has delivered strong relative performance over the past year, supported by cost-savings programs and the completed spin-off of its FedEx Freight business.
- GXO is growing revenue and raising guidance, but its share price has lagged on a year-to-date and trailing twelve-month basis.
- The two companies operate in different parts of logistics: FDX is a global express and parcel carrier, while GXO is a pure-play contract logistics and warehouse automation provider.
- FDX offers a more established earnings and cash-flow profile, whereas GXO presents a smaller, higher-growth business tied to outsourcing and automation trends.
- Risk profiles differ sharply: FDX faces fuel, labor, and trade-policy exposure, while GXO contends with customer concentration, integration costs, and competition from larger players.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the transportation and logistics sector often encounter two very different businesses under the same broad umbrella. FDX (FedEx Corporation) is a global express shipping and parcel delivery giant, while GXO (GXO Logistics, Inc.) is the world's largest pure-play contract logistics provider. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors weighing a large, cash-generative carrier against a smaller, faster-growing outsourcing and automation specialist. Because the two stocks respond to different demand drivers and sentiment forces, understanding their relative performance and market positioning can help clarify which profile fits a given portfolio objective in the current environment.
FDX Overview and Recent Performance
FedEx Corporation is the world's largest express air cargo carrier, operating a fleet of more than 650 aircraft and delivering to over 220 countries. In recent weeks, the company's share price has reflected a strong multi-month advance, with the stock up substantially over the trailing year, even after a pullback that followed the June 1 spin-off of its less-than-truckload (LTL) FedEx Freight segment into a separate publicly traded company.
Recent market activity has been shaped by several catalysts. FedEx reported solid fiscal fourth-quarter results, with revenue up roughly 12.5% year over year and continued strength in package yields and international export volumes. Management has raised its calendar-year 2026 outlook, projecting roughly 11% revenue growth and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $16.90 to $18.10. The company is also progressing its Network 2.0 efficiency initiative, which aims to consolidate express and ground networks, close hundreds of shipping stations, and deliver over $2 billion in savings by late 2027. Sentiment has been further supported by FedEx's plan to use proceeds from selling its retained stake in FedEx Freight to reduce more than $22 billion in long-term debt. Headwinds include elevated fuel costs, rising labor expenses, and trade-policy uncertainty.
GXO Overview and Recent Performance
GXO Logistics is a global contract logistics provider that designs, manages, and operates warehousing and fulfillment operations for enterprise customers, with a growing emphasis on warehouse automation and technology. The company has been expanding its footprint in strategic verticals such as aerospace and defense, life sciences, industrial, and technology—including data center and artificial intelligence (AI) cloud infrastructure.
In its most recent reported quarter, GXO delivered revenue of approximately $3.3 billion, up 11% year over year, with organic revenue growth of 4% and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) up 23%. The company raised its full-year guidance, now expecting adjusted diluted EPS of $2.90 to $3.20. Management has highlighted a record sales pipeline of roughly $2.7 billion and a 10-year logistics partnership with Columbia Sportswear in Europe. Despite this operational momentum, GXO's share price has declined on a year-to-date and trailing twelve-month basis, reflecting investor concerns about competition—including Amazon's expansion into supply chain services—as well as acquisition integration costs and weaker cash conversion. Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight in late May, citing long-term growth prospects.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge most clearly in their business models and growth drivers. FDX is a capital-intensive, asset-heavy express and parcel network whose profitability depends on pricing power, volume, and operating efficiency. Its near-term narrative is centered on the freight spin-off, debt reduction, and margin expansion through Network 2.0. In contrast, GXO is an asset-light services business whose growth relies on winning long-duration outsourcing contracts and deploying automation, with a total addressable market management estimates in the hundreds of billions of dollars.
Recent momentum favors FDX, which has outperformed over the past year, while GXO's stock has lagged despite improving fundamentals. Risk factors also differ: FDX is exposed to fuel prices, pilot and labor costs, and global trade policy, whereas GXO faces customer concentration, integration expenses from acquisitions such as Wincanton, and intensifying competition. From a market positioning standpoint, FDX offers scale, cash generation, and a dividend, while GXO offers a smaller, higher-growth profile with greater sensitivity to contract wins and automation adoption.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor FDX in the current environment. FDX combines a multi-quarter streak of adjusted EPS and free cash flow growth with a well-defined cost-reduction catalyst and stronger recent share-price momentum. GXO's improving fundamentals and upgraded guidance are notable, but its weaker trailing price trend and cash-conversion questions introduce more uncertainty into the near-term technical picture. This verdict reflects a probabilistic assessment of trend strength and stability rather than a definitive forecast, and it may shift as new earnings, contract, or market data emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FDX is a Hold and GXO is a Hold.
FDX's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for FDX moved out of oversold territory on September 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 20 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 16 of the 20 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FDX as a result. In 59 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FDX just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where FDX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +0.93% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FDX advanced for three days, in 234 of 332 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
FDX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for FDX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FDX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator for FDX entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 19 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.166) is normal, around the industry mean (3.756). P/E Ratio (15.615) is within average values for comparable stocks, (222.905). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.224) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.013) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.761) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FDX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
GXO in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on September 24, 2026
GXO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 29 of 41 cases where GXO's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GXO as a result. In 54 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GXO just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where GXO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +0.52% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GXO advanced for three days, in 191 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 41 of 62 cases where GXO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GXO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator for GXO entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.719) is normal, around the industry mean (3.756). P/E Ratio (39.619) is within average values for comparable stocks, (222.905). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.140) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.013) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.392) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GXO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GXO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
FDX | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 10 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 19 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 38 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 57 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 29 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| FDX | GXO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 58% | 1 day ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 74% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FDX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while GXO’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- FDX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- GXO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FDX’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GXO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FDX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- GXO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
FDX (@Other Transportation) experienced а +0.77% price change this week, while GXO (@Other Transportation) price change was -0.26% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was +1.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.25%, and the average quarterly price growth was -24.21%.
Reported Earning Dates
FDX is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
GXO is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (+1.05% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
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FDX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FDX has been loosely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FDX jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FDX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDX | 100% | +0.24% | ||
| XPO - FDX | 63% Loosely correlated | +2.18% | ||
| UPS - FDX | 50% Loosely correlated | +1.04% | ||
| GXO - FDX | 49% Loosely correlated | -1.35% | ||
| SFWL - FDX | 32% Poorly correlated | N/A | ||
| RLGT - FDX | 31% Poorly correlated | -0.33% | ||
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