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FDX vs GXO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? FedEx (FDX) vs. GXO Logistics (GXO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FDX raised its fiscal 2026 earnings guidance and recorded its strongest U.S. market-share gains in more than two decades while completing the spin-off of FedEx Freight.
- GXO delivered record 2025 revenue of $13.2 billion, but its net margin remains thin at roughly 0.2%, leaving profitability as its key challenge.
- FedEx offers greater scale and stronger current profitability, while GXO offers faster top-line growth and deeper exposure to automation, robotics, and AI.
- The two companies operate very different models: FedEx is an asset-heavy express and parcel carrier, while GXO is a contract logistics and warehouse-fulfillment provider.
- Recent market sentiment has improved for GXO following an analyst upgrade, while FedEx remains a sell-side "top pick" within transportation.
Introduction
FedEx and GXO Logistics both operate in the global logistics sector, yet they sit on opposite ends of the industry's value chain. This stock comparison examines how these two names diverge in business model, growth drivers, margin structure, and market positioning. Investors weighing an established, asset-heavy transportation network against a faster-growing, technology-enabled contract logistics platform may find this relative performance analysis useful. The comparison is especially relevant given a shifting macro backdrop, where cost discipline, network efficiency, and automation are shaping investor sentiment across the sector.
FDX Overview and Recent Performance
FedEx is the world's largest express air cargo carrier, operating more than 650 aircraft and serving over 220 countries and territories. In recent weeks, sentiment toward FDX has been shaped by strong execution of its cost-reduction agenda. The company raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance to a range of $19.30 to $20.10 and reported its strongest quarter of profitable U.S. market-share gains in more than two decades, driven by the Federal Express segment.
FedEx has also restructured its portfolio, completing the spin-off of its less-than-truckload (LTL) freight business, FedEx Freight, in June 2026. The separation simplifies its Network 2.0 initiative, which merges express and ground operations using automation and AI. Management expects the network redesign to generate more than $2 billion in annual savings by the end of 2027. These catalysts have supported a notable re-rating of the stock over the past several months.
GXO Overview and Recent Performance
GXO Logistics is the world's largest pure-play contract logistics provider, operating roughly 1,000 facilities and offering warehousing, distribution, order fulfillment, and reverse logistics services. In recent weeks, GXO has drawn renewed attention after an analyst upgrade, with the stock trading near the lower end of its 52-week range following a period of de-rating.
Fundamentally, GXO reported record 2025 revenue of $13.2 billion, up 12.5% year over year, and record adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $881 million. However, net income declined, and full-year net margin compressed to about 0.2%, reflecting integration costs from the Wincanton acquisition and one-time charges. GXO has guided for 4% to 5% organic revenue growth in 2026 and is prioritizing margin expansion through automation, robotics, and its AI-powered warehouse operating system. Its contractual, recurring revenue model provides visibility, but thin margins remain a central risk.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two stocks lies in their business models. FedEx is an asset-heavy express and parcel network with significant capital intensity, exposure to fuel and labor costs, and sensitivity to global trade volumes. GXO, by contrast, operates a more asset-light, contract-based fulfillment model, with revenue visibility tied to long-term customer agreements but thinner margins and higher exposure to labor productivity and integration execution.
On growth, GXO has expanded revenue faster, aided by the Wincanton acquisition and new contract wins in aerospace, defense, and life sciences. FedEx, however, generates far stronger absolute profitability and cash flow, allowing it to fund buybacks, dividends, and debt reduction. Risk profiles also differ: FedEx faces competitive pressure in B2B (business-to-business) logistics and macro-driven volume swings, while GXO faces margin compression from integration costs and modest organic growth. Market sentiment currently rewards FedEx's execution and GXO's valuation reset, but the two stocks appeal to different investor priorities.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor FDX at present. The stock demonstrates stronger trend consistency, higher and more stable profitability, and a clearer near-term catalyst path through its cost programs and portfolio simplification. GXO's faster revenue growth and improving sentiment are notable, but its compressed margins and integration-related earnings volatility introduce greater uncertainty. In probabilistic terms, FedEx currently offers a more favorable combination of momentum, earnings quality, and relative positioning, while GXO would likely require confirmation of sustained margin expansion before signaling a comparable trend profile.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FDX is a Buy and GXO is a Hold.
FDX in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026
The 10-day moving average for FDX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FDX as a result. In 53 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FDX just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where FDX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
FDX moved above its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FDX advanced for three days, in 225 of 325 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 167 of 263 cases where FDX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for FDX moved below the 200-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FDX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
FDX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. FDX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.378) is normal, around the industry mean (2.631). P/E Ratio (16.997) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.628). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.224) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.761) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
GXO's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GXO turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where GXO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GXO as a result. In 54 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
GXO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GXO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 7 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +4.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GXO advanced for three days, in 184 of 294 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 160 of 228 cases where GXO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GXO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
GXO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GXO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.998) is normal, around the industry mean (2.631). GXO's P/E Ratio (46.044) is considerably higher than the industry average of (7.628). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.140) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.392) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GXO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
FDX | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 59 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 21 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 57 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 24 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 28 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| FDX | GXO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | about 1 month ago 58% | 22 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 70% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FDX’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while GXO’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- FDX’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- GXO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FDX’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GXO’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FDX’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
- GXO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FDX (@Other Transportation) experienced а +3.56% price change this week, while GXO (@Other Transportation) price change was +3.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was -0.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was -29.69%.
Reported Earning Dates
FDX is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
GXO is expected to report earnings on Feb 16, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (-0.39% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
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FDX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FDX has been loosely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FDX jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FDX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDX | 100% | -0.07% | ||
| XPO - FDX | 63% Loosely correlated | -0.30% | ||
| UPS - FDX | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.49% | ||
| GXO - FDX | 48% Loosely correlated | -0.17% | ||
| SFWL - FDX | 32% Poorly correlated | -0.27% | ||
| RLGT - FDX | 31% Poorly correlated | +0.53% | ||
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GXO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GXO has been closely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GXO jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GXO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GXO | 100% | -0.17% | ||
| XPO - GXO | 71% Closely correlated | -0.30% | ||
| UPS - GXO | 57% Loosely correlated | -0.49% | ||
| FDX - GXO | 48% Loosely correlated | -0.07% | ||
| JBHT - GXO | 41% Loosely correlated | +0.38% | ||
| RLGT - GXO | 39% Loosely correlated | +0.53% | ||
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