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ONB vs WTFC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Old National Bancorp (ONB) vs. Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ONB and WTFC are Midwest regional banks with comparable market capitalizations near $9.5 billion, yet they hold distinct growth profiles.
- Wintrust has delivered seven consecutive quarters of record net income, reflecting consistent operating momentum and steady net interest margin.
- Old National is absorbing its $1.4 billion acquisition of Bremer Financial, a deal that expands its footprint into Minnesota but pressures near-term loan growth.
- WTFC trades around $142 with a forward consensus target near $176, while ONB trades near $25 with a consensus target near $29.
- Recent analyst activity has been constructive on ONB (including an upgrade to Outperform), while WTFC has seen more mixed estimate revisions.
- Sentiment favors WTFC's organic growth story, while ONB offers a higher dividend yield and a value-oriented profile.
Introduction
Regional bank stocks have become a focal point for investors navigating a shifting interest-rate environment and renewed attention on balance-sheet strength. This stock comparison examines ONB (Old National Bancorp) and WTFC (Wintrust Financial Corporation), two Midwestern financial institutions with similar scale but different strategic paths. Old National is an Evansville, Indiana-based bank expanding through acquisition, while Wintrust is a Chicago-area community banking and specialty finance franchise growing organically. Investors focused on relative performance, dividend income, growth quality, and market positioning may find this side-by-side review useful when evaluating which name better fits their objectives in the current market environment.
ONB Overview and Recent Performance
Old National Bancorp (ONB) is a bank holding company headquartered in Evansville, Indiana, operating through Old National Bank across the Midwest with commercial, consumer, and wealth management services. A defining recent development has been the integration of the $1.4 billion Bremer Financial acquisition, which extended the company's reach into Minnesota while creating temporary pressure on loan growth and net interest income (NII, the difference between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits) as legacy portfolios run off.
In recent market activity, ONB shares have pulled back modestly even as the broader regional bank group softened, with the stock holding near the $25 level. This relative stability has been supported by several constructive analyst moves, including an upgrade to Outperform by Raymond James and positive commentary around improving loan growth, profitability, and a shift toward share repurchases. The company has also raised its quarterly dividend to $0.145 per share, translating to a yield of roughly 2.2% — an attractive feature for income-oriented investors. Leadership changes within its "1834" wealth division signal continued investment in fee-based revenue streams.
WTFC Overview and Recent Performance
Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) is a financial holding company based in Rosemont, Illinois, operating community banks primarily across the Chicago area while also providing specialty finance services such as insurance premium financing and wealth management. Unlike peers pursuing large acquisitions, Wintrust has emphasized disciplined organic growth, opening new branches and steadily gaining deposit market share.
The company recently reported its seventh consecutive quarter of record net income, with net interest income rising 9.6% year over year and a net interest margin (NIM, a key measure of lending profitability) held stable at 3.51% for eleven straight quarters. Its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of 10.5% — a measure of a bank's core capital relative to risk-weighted assets — reflects a well-capitalized balance sheet. Despite strong fundamentals, WTFC shares have pulled back from recent highs, trading near $142 after a multi-month decline. This retreat has occurred even as the firm posts consistent earnings beats and maintains a forward consensus price target well above current levels, suggesting the market is discounting near-term rate and credit uncertainties.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies are regional banks with similar market values, their business models diverge meaningfully. Old National is executing an acquisition-led expansion strategy, using scale to extend its geographic reach and enhance fee income through wealth management. Wintrust, by contrast, favors organic growth through community banking, specialty finance, and steady deposit gathering, which has produced more consistent earnings momentum.
On growth quality, Wintrust currently shows an edge, with record profitability and a stable net interest margin despite shifting rates. Old National's near-term metrics are more subdued as it works through the Bremer integration and softer loan growth. On valuation and income, the roles reverse: ONB trades at a forward multiple near 11 times earnings with a dividend yield above 2%, while WTFC offers a lower yield near 1.5% but carries a materially higher consensus target relative to its price.
Risk profiles also differ. Wintrust's mortgage banking segment faces headwinds from higher rates, while Old National's tangible book value remains sensitive to accumulated losses on its securities portfolio. Both carry the sector-wide exposure to commercial real estate and credit normalization that defines regional banks today.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward WTFC as the more favorable candidate in the current environment. The stock's streak of record quarterly net income, remarkably stable net interest margin, and strong deposit market-share gains point to durable operating momentum that algorithmic models tend to reward. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: ONB holds appeal on valuation, dividend yield, and improving analyst sentiment, and a successful Bremer integration could narrow the gap. Traders and investors should weigh these trade-offs in the context of their own time horizon and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ONB is a Hold and WTFC is a Buy.
ONB in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026
ONB moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 34 of 52 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ONB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
ONB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ONB entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ONB's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 20 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 34 of 57 cases where ONB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ONB as a result. In 55 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ONB just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where ONB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Following a +2.97% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ONB advanced for three days, in 168 of 290 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 44 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.149) is normal, around the industry mean (1.263). P/E Ratio (11.053) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.507). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.160) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.482) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ONB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
WTFC in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for WTFC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WTFC as a result. In 56 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WTFC just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where WTFC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
WTFC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +0.95% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WTFC advanced for three days, in 187 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for WTFC moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 22 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 56%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for WTFC moved below the 200-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WTFC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
WTFC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for WTFC entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WTFC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.448) is normal, around the industry mean (1.263). P/E Ratio (12.074) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.507). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.150) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.527) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
ONB | WTFC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 36 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 44 Fair valued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 22 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 9 | 9 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 41 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ONB's Valuation (44) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as WTFC (63). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to WTFC’s over the last 12 months.
WTFC's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (28). This means that WTFC’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
WTFC's SMR Rating (9) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (9). This means that WTFC’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
WTFC's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (48). This means that WTFC’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
WTFC's P/E Growth Rating (41) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (54). This means that WTFC’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
| ONB | WTFC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 58% | 6 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 71% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ONB’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while WTFC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ONB’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- WTFC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ONB’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WTFC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ONB’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WTFC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ONB (@Regional Banks) experienced а -0.91% price change this week, while WTFC (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.07% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -1.29%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.46%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.38%.
Reported Earning Dates
ONB is expected to report earnings on Jan 26, 2027.
WTFC is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-1.29% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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ONB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONB has been closely correlated with ASB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ONB jumps, then ASB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONB | 100% | -0.55% | ||
| ASB - ONB | 90% Closely correlated | -0.75% | ||
| FNB - ONB | 89% Closely correlated | -1.42% | ||
| FULT - ONB | 89% Closely correlated | -0.89% | ||
| WTFC - ONB | 87% Closely correlated | -1.14% | ||
| UBSI - ONB | 87% Closely correlated | -1.01% | ||
More | ||||
WTFC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WTFC has been closely correlated with FNB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WTFC jumps, then FNB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WTFC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTFC | 100% | -1.14% | ||
| FNB - WTFC | 88% Closely correlated | -1.42% | ||
| ZION - WTFC | 88% Closely correlated | -1.30% | ||
| ONB - WTFC | 86% Closely correlated | -0.55% | ||
| ASB - WTFC | 86% Closely correlated | -0.75% | ||
| HWC - WTFC | 85% Closely correlated | -0.85% | ||
More | ||||
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