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FNV vs KGC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Franco-Nevada (FNV) vs. Kinross Gold (KGC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FNV, a leading royalty and streaming company, offers lower operational risk with a beta of 0.89 and consistent dividends at 0.76% yield, but trades at a higher P/E ratio of 40.3.
- KGC, an operating gold miner, has delivered stronger 1-year returns of over 113% and a lower P/E of 13.4, supported by record Q1 free cash flow amid elevated gold prices.
- Both stocks show positive YTD performance around 10-12%, influenced by recent gold market strength, though recent weeks saw pullbacks due to sector rotation and softening commodity momentum.
- FNV provides diversified precious metals exposure with minimal capex needs, while KGC benefits from production growth at assets like Tasiast but faces higher volatility (beta 1.37).
- Market caps are comparable at ~$45B for FNV and ~$38B for KGC, positioning both as large-cap plays in the gold sector.
- Recent catalysts include FNV's new royalty financings and KGC's strong Q1 earnings, highlighting relative stability versus growth potential.
Introduction
Franco-Nevada (FNV) and Kinross Gold (KGC) represent contrasting approaches within the gold sector: royalty/streaming versus direct mining operations. Both benefit from elevated gold prices in recent market activity, drawing interest from investors seeking inflation hedges, sector diversification, or commodity-linked growth. Traders focused on relative performance may appreciate FNV's asset-light model for stability, while KGC's operational leverage appeals to those eyeing production upside. This comparison analyzes their business models, recent momentum, and market positioning to inform stock comparison decisions in the current environment.
FNV Overview and Recent Performance
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) is a premier royalty and streaming company, deriving over 70% of revenue from gold and silver across a diversified portfolio of 430+ assets spanning mining, energy, and platinum group metals (PGMs). Unlike operators, FNV avoids operational costs, generating high margins (around 60-90%) through upfront financing for percentage royalties or metal purchases at fixed prices.
In recent market activity, FNV shares experienced downward pressure, declining about 11-12% over the past 30 days amid softening gold prices and sector rotation toward equities. Year-to-date gains stand at approximately 12%, with a 1-year return of 41-46%. Sentiment has been influenced by record 2025 results (revenue up 65% to $1.82B), new financings like $250M with i-80 Gold, and progress at Cobre Panamá, though broader precious metals volatility capped upside. Trading around $232 with a market cap of $45B, beta of 0.89, P/E of 40.3, and 0.76% dividend yield, FNV emphasizes long-term optionality over short-term swings.
KGC Overview and Recent Performance
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) is a global gold producer with operations in the Americas and West Africa, including key mines like Tasiast, Paracatu, and Fort Knox. The company focuses on maximizing free cash flow through cost discipline and development projects like Great Bear.
Recent weeks have seen KGC shares fluctuate, down around 6% in the past month but up 10-12% YTD and over 113% in the last year, outperforming broader indices. Strong Q1 2026 results drove sentiment, with revenue up 61% YoY to $2.41B, record free cash flow of $837.5M, and net income of $843M, fueled by higher gold prices and production. At ~$31.50 per share, market cap ~$38B, beta 1.37, P/E 13.4, and 0.46% yield, KGC reflects operational leverage but higher exposure to costs and geopolitics.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
FNV’s royalty model delivers predictable cash flows with near-zero debt/equity and low beta (0.89), contrasting KGC’s higher ROE (31%) but elevated risks from mining costs, capex, and beta (1.37). Growth drivers differ: FNV expands via financings (e.g., Bullabulling, i-80), while KGC ramps production at Tasiast and advances Great Bear. Recent momentum favors KGC’s 113% 1-year gain over FNV’s 41%, though both pulled back lately amid gold softening. Risk trade-offs highlight FNV’s stability (higher dividend yield) versus KGC’s value (P/E 13 vs. 40). Sector exposure is pure gold for both, but sentiment tilts toward KGC on earnings beats.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors KGC due to superior trend consistency from record free cash flow, lower valuation (forward P/E ~10), and stronger relative momentum in recent gold rallies. While FNV excels in stability and catalysts like Cobre Panamá, KGC’s production positioning suggests higher probability of outperformance in sustained high-gold environments, based on observable factors like ROE and YTD alignment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FNV is a Hold and KGC is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FNV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileKGC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- FNV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KGC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FNV’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KGC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FNV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KGC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
FNV (@Precious Metals) experienced а -4.04% price change this week, while KGC (@Precious Metals) price change was -2.44% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was +1.32%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.06%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.20%.
Reported Earning Dates
FNV is expected to report earnings on Aug 12, 2026.
KGC is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (+1.32% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
| FNV | KGC | FNV / KGC | |
| Capitalization | 40.5B | 30.6B | 132% |
| EBITDA | 2.06B | 5.15B | 40% |
| Gain YTD | 1.433 | -8.924 | -16% |
| P/E Ratio | 29.50 | 10.89 | 271% |
| Revenue | 2.11B | 7.96B | 26% |
| Total Cash | 434M | 2.19B | 20% |
| Total Debt | 82.6M | 738M | 11% |
FNV | KGC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 61 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 29 Undervalued | 28 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 52 | 40 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 47 | 27 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 91 | 83 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KGC's Valuation (28) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (29). This means that KGC’s stock grew similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
KGC's Profit vs Risk Rating (40) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (52). This means that KGC’s stock grew similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
KGC's SMR Rating (27) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (47). This means that KGC’s stock grew similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
KGC's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (61). This means that KGC’s stock grew similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
KGC's P/E Growth Rating (83) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (91). This means that KGC’s stock grew similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
| FNV | KGC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 86% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 5 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 81% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 61% |
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FNV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FNV has been closely correlated with WPM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FNV jumps, then WPM could also see price increases.