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FWRD vs LSTR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) vs. Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both FWRD and LSTR operate as asset-light logistics providers in the trucking and freight sector, but LSTR boasts a larger market cap of $6.16 billion compared to FWRD's $538 million.
- LSTR shows stronger recent stability with positive EPS (earnings per share) of $3.61 and YTD gains of 28%, while FWRD has faced volatility, including a sharp recent decline and negative EPS of -$3.51.
- FWRD carries higher risk with a beta of 1.59 and elevated debt levels, contrasting LSTR's lower beta of 0.80 and conservative balance sheet.
- Recent market activity highlights LSTR's quarterly revenue growth of 1.6% and earnings growth of 32%, outpacing FWRD's slight revenue dip.
- Investor sentiment leans toward LSTR for its dividend yield and consistent performance amid sector headwinds.
Introduction
In the competitive asset-light logistics sector, Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) and Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) offer distinct approaches to freight and truckload brokerage. This comparison analyzes their business models, recent stock behavior, and market positioning to aid traders seeking momentum plays and long-term investors evaluating stability. With trucking demand influenced by economic cycles and supply chain dynamics, understanding relative performance helps navigate sector volatility. Both stocks have shown resilience in recent market activity, but divergences in momentum and risk profiles make this head-to-head review timely for portfolio decisions.
FWRD Overview and Recent Performance
Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) specializes in expedited less-than-truckload (LTL) freight, global logistics via its Omni segment, and intermodal services across North America and beyond. As an asset-light provider, it partners with carriers for flexible capacity. In recent weeks, FWRD stock has exhibited heightened volatility, with a sharp pullback amid broader market pressures and company-specific challenges like rising costs and liquidity concerns. Year-to-date gains stand at around 34%, but trading near the lower end of its 52-week range reflects sentiment shifts tied to integration efforts post-acquisition and upcoming earnings. Positive recognitions, such as climate leadership awards, have provided some offset, yet high debt levels and negative profitability have weighed on performance.
LSTR Overview and Recent Performance
Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) is an agent-based third-party logistics firm emphasizing truckload brokerage, rail intermodal, and multimodal services for diverse industries. Its asset-light model relies on a network of independent agents and capacity providers. Recent market activity has seen LSTR maintain relative stability, with year-to-date advances of 28% and one-year gains exceeding 40%. The first-quarter results showed revenue of $1.17 billion and EPS of $1.16, signaling modest growth amid trucking recovery. Lower beta and strong cash position have supported steady performance, though elevated valuations reflect optimism in sector rebound.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both FWRD and LSTR leverage asset-light models to minimize capital intensity, FWRD emphasizes expedited LTL and intermodal, exposing it more to time-sensitive freight, whereas LSTR focuses on truckload brokerage with broader multimodal options. Growth drivers differ: LSTR benefits from agent network expansion and recent earnings momentum (32% quarterly growth), while FWRD navigates post-merger synergies but contends with revenue stagnation. Recent momentum favors LSTR's consistent uptrend versus FWRD's swings. Risk factors highlight contrasts—FWRD's high beta and debt-to-equity over 1,300% signal volatility, against LSTR's low leverage. Sector exposure overlaps in industrials, but LSTR garners stronger sentiment via dividends and profitability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models would likely favor LSTR in the current environment due to its superior trend consistency, positive earnings trajectory, lower volatility, and robust balance sheet. FWRD offers higher potential upside from catalysts like earnings but trails in stability and risk-adjusted positioning. Probabilistically, LSTR aligns better with sustained market uptrends.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FWRD is a Hold and LSTR is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FWRD’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileLSTR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- FWRD’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- LSTR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FWRD’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LSTR’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FWRD’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- LSTR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
FWRD (@Other Transportation) experienced а +13.69% price change this week, while LSTR (@Other Transportation) price change was +0.82% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was -0.28%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.16%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.41%.
Reported Earning Dates
FWRD is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
LSTR is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (-0.28% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
| FWRD | LSTR | FWRD / LSTR | |
| Capitalization | 427M | 7.02B | 6% |
| EBITDA | 189M | 229M | 83% |
| Gain YTD | -40.520 | 48.288 | -84% |
| P/E Ratio | 10.21 | 57.74 | 18% |
| Revenue | 2.46B | 4.76B | 52% |
| Total Cash | 141M | 411M | 34% |
| Total Debt | 2.15B | 124M | 1,734% |
FWRD | LSTR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 73 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 58 Fair valued | 73 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 56 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 99 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 76 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FWRD's Valuation (58) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as LSTR (73) in the Trucking industry. This means that FWRD’s stock grew similarly to LSTR’s over the last 12 months.
LSTR's Profit vs Risk Rating (56) in the Trucking industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FWRD (100) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that LSTR’s stock grew somewhat faster than FWRD’s over the last 12 months.
LSTR's SMR Rating (59) in the Trucking industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FWRD (99) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that LSTR’s stock grew somewhat faster than FWRD’s over the last 12 months.
LSTR's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as FWRD (52) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that LSTR’s stock grew similarly to FWRD’s over the last 12 months.
LSTR's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Trucking industry is significantly better than the same rating for FWRD (76) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that LSTR’s stock grew significantly faster than FWRD’s over the last 12 months.
| FWRD | LSTR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 73% | 7 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 29 days ago 78% | 14 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 6 days ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 60% |
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FWRD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FWRD has been closely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FWRD jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FWRD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWRD | 100% | N/A | ||
| XPO - FWRD | 75% Closely correlated | -0.41% | ||
| PAL - FWRD | 45% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| FDX - FWRD | 35% Loosely correlated | -3.77% | ||
| JBHT - FWRD | 32% Poorly correlated | N/A | ||
| UPS - FWRD | 32% Poorly correlated | -0.47% | ||
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LSTR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LSTR has been loosely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if LSTR jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LSTR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSTR | 100% | N/A | ||
| XPO - LSTR | 65% Loosely correlated | -0.41% | ||
| JBHT - LSTR | 63% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| HUBG - LSTR | 59% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| EXPD - LSTR | 59% Loosely correlated | +0.62% | ||
| FDX - LSTR | 55% Loosely correlated | -3.77% | ||
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