Advertisement
FDX vs FWRD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? FedEx Corporation (FDX) vs. Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FedEx Corporation (FDX) holds a dominant market position with a market capitalization exceeding $85 billion, compared to Forward Air Corporation's (FWRD) roughly $540–700 million, highlighting stark scale differences.
- Both stocks in the air freight and logistics sector have faced sharp declines in recent market activity amid Amazon's expanded supply chain services, with FDX down around 9% and FWRD dropping over 22% in a single session.
- FDX demonstrates robust profitability with positive net income of $4.48 billion and ROE (return on equity) of 15.87%, while FWRD reports net losses exceeding $107 million and negative ROE.
- FDX trades at a trailing P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio of about 19–21 with forward P/E around 18, contrasting FWRD's elevated forward P/E near 20 amid ongoing losses.
- Analyst price targets suggest upside for both, with FDX averaging $402 and FWRD at $35, but FDX shows stronger momentum in recent quarters.
- FWRD carries higher risk with debt-to-equity over 1,300% versus FDX's 141%, amplifying volatility in uncertain markets.
Introduction
This comparison examines FedEx Corporation (FDX) and Forward Air Corporation (FWRD), two players in the air freight and logistics sector. Both companies provide critical transportation services but differ in scale, focus, and financial health. Traders seeking exposure to industrials amid e-commerce growth and supply chain shifts, or investors evaluating relative performance in a competitive landscape intensified by tech giants like Amazon, will find value in analyzing their business models, recent momentum, and risk profiles. This analysis draws on current market data to highlight key contrasts.
FDX Overview and Recent Performance
FedEx Corporation (FDX) is a global leader in express package delivery, ground shipping, and freight services, operating through segments like Federal Express and FedEx Ground. In recent market activity, FDX shares have shown resilience with year-to-date gains, driven by cost-cutting measures, upbeat fiscal 2026 guidance, and strong quarterly results where revenue and EPS exceeded expectations. Sentiment has been influenced by e-commerce demand and operational efficiencies, though broader sector pressures from Amazon's logistics expansion have triggered sharp pullbacks. Trading near its 52-week midpoint with a beta of 1.3, FDX reflects steady volume and analyst optimism, with average price targets implying potential upside.
FWRD Overview and Recent Performance
Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) specializes in asset-light freight services, including less-than-truckload (LTL) consolidation, expedited freight, and intermodal solutions via its Omni Logistics segment. Recent performance has been challenged by integration issues post-merger, elevated expenses, and weak liquidity, contributing to net losses and high volatility. Shares have underperformed broader indices in recent weeks, exacerbated by sector headwinds like Amazon's supply chain moves, with a beta of 1.59 signaling amplified market sensitivity. Despite some positive recognitions for sustainability and trustworthiness, upcoming Q1 2026 earnings loom as a key catalyst amid strategic reviews nearing completion.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page features a curated selection of the top-performing AI trading bots from over 350 available, which collectively trade thousands of tickers across diverse strategies, timeframes from 5 minutes to 60 minutes, and sectors like industrials and logistics. Only the most suitable for current volatility make the cut, showcasing annualized returns ranging from 40% to over 160%, win rates of 50–88%, and profit factors between 1.5 and 7. Industrials bots, relevant here, deliver standout results such as 94% returns with 67% win rates on multi-ticker strategies. These bots employ AI/ML models, trend following, take-profit/stop-loss corridors, and risk management for real-time signals. Explore them to align with your trading style.
Head-to-Head Comparison
FedEx (FDX) operates a fully integrated global network emphasizing package delivery and e-commerce, contrasting Forward Air's (FWRD) niche in LTL freight and intermodal with post-merger expansion efforts. Growth drivers for FDX include domestic package strength and cost discipline, while FWRD relies on logistics integration amid revenue growth to $2.5 billion. Recent momentum favors FDX with positive EPS trends versus FWRD's losses. Risk factors highlight FWRD's extreme leverage (debt-to-equity over 1,300%) and negative ROE, compared to FDX's balanced profile. Market sentiment tilts toward FDX for stability, though both face Amazon competition in sector exposure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor FedEx Corporation (FDX) over Forward Air Corporation (FWRD), based on superior trend consistency, profitability metrics like positive EBITDA and ROE, lower relative risk, and stronger positioning amid logistics pressures. While FWRD offers value potential at depressed valuations, FDX's scale and catalysts suggest higher probability of outperformance in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FDX is a Hold and FWRD is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FDX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileFWRD’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- FDX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- FWRD’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FDX’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FWRD’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FDX’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- FWRD’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
FDX (@Other Transportation) experienced а -0.74% price change this week, while FWRD (@Other Transportation) price change was -11.25% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was -1.91%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.46%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.69%.
Reported Earning Dates
FDX is expected to report earnings on Jun 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (-1.91% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
| FDX | FWRD | FDX / FWRD | |
| Capitalization | 89.7B | 277M | 32,383% |
| EBITDA | 10.8B | 189M | 5,714% |
| Gain YTD | 30.618 | -64.960 | -47% |
| P/E Ratio | 20.06 | 10.21 | 196% |
| Revenue | 90.1B | 2.46B | 3,657% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 141M | - |
| Total Debt | 37.8B | 2.15B | 1,758% |
FDX | FWRD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 89 | 57 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 68 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 98 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 97 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 77 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FDX's Valuation (68) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as FWRD (88). This means that FDX’s stock grew similarly to FWRD’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's Profit vs Risk Rating (56) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FWRD (100). This means that FDX’s stock grew somewhat faster than FWRD’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's SMR Rating (54) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FWRD (98). This means that FDX’s stock grew somewhat faster than FWRD’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's Price Growth Rating (25) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is significantly better than the same rating for FWRD (97). This means that FDX’s stock grew significantly faster than FWRD’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FWRD (77). This means that FDX’s stock grew somewhat faster than FWRD’s over the last 12 months.
| FDX | FWRD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 66% | 13 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 60% | 6 days ago 78% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 66% |
Advertisement
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| RMMZ | 15.02 | 0.14 | +0.97% |
| RiverNorth Managed Duration Municipal Income Fund II | |||
| MBNE | 29.00 | N/A | N/A |
| State Street® Nuveen Muncpl Bd ESG ETF | |||
| OSCV | 40.18 | -0.48 | -1.18% |
| Opus Small Cap Value Plus ETF | |||
| DFAI | 40.83 | -0.68 | -1.64% |
| Dimensional International Cr Eq Mkt ETF | |||
| QUIZ | 28.47 | -0.62 | -2.13% |
| Zacks Quality International ETF | |||
FDX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FDX has been closely correlated with UPS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FDX jumps, then UPS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FDX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDX | 100% | -1.11% | ||
| UPS - FDX | 68% Closely correlated | +0.52% | ||
| XPO - FDX | 63% Loosely correlated | -0.64% | ||
| GXO - FDX | 61% Loosely correlated | -3.49% | ||
| JBHT - FDX | 54% Loosely correlated | +2.96% | ||
| HUBG - FDX | 48% Loosely correlated | +0.16% | ||
More | ||||
FWRD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FWRD has been closely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FWRD jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FWRD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWRD | 100% | -6.81% | ||
| XPO - FWRD | 75% Closely correlated | -0.64% | ||
| PAL - FWRD | 43% Loosely correlated | -6.82% | ||
| GXO - FWRD | 39% Loosely correlated | -3.49% | ||
| FDX - FWRD | 37% Loosely correlated | -1.11% | ||
| UPS - FWRD | 34% Loosely correlated | +0.52% | ||
More | ||||