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GBX vs WAB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Greenbrier Companies (GBX) vs. Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Greenbrier (GBX) is navigating a cyclical downturn in railcar manufacturing, with fiscal 2026 guidance pointing to materially lower deliveries and earnings compared to its record fiscal 2025.
- Wabtec (WAB) continues to demonstrate broad-based momentum, underpinned by a record $27 billion multi-year backlog, double-digit adjusted earnings growth, and a rapidly expanding international footprint.
- GBX offers a compelling valuation at a single-digit price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and a dividend yield near 2.7%, but faces near-term headwinds from softening freight rail demand in North America and European restructuring costs.
- WAB trades at a premium valuation reflecting its diversified revenue mix, recurring aftermarket and services income, and completed transformative acquisitions that strengthen its digital and transit portfolios.
- Both companies are leaders in the global rail equipment and services industry, yet their diverging growth trajectories, scale, and market positioning create a stark contrast for investors evaluating this sector.
Introduction
Comparing GBX (The Greenbrier Companies) and WAB (Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies, commonly known as Wabtec) offers investors a revealing look at two distinct approaches to the global rail industry. Greenbrier is primarily a freight railcar manufacturer and lessor, while Wabtec is a diversified industrial technology company spanning locomotives, braking systems, digital solutions, and transit equipment. This stock comparison is particularly relevant for investors seeking to understand how business model diversification, backlog composition, and exposure to different end markets influence relative performance and risk. Both names operate in the transportation equipment sector, yet their recent market positioning could not be more different.
GBX Overview and Recent Performance
GBX, headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon, is a leading international supplier of freight railcars, wheel services, and fleet management solutions. The company designs, manufactures, and markets railcars across North America, Europe, and Brazil, and owns a lease fleet of approximately 17,000 units with sustained utilization of 98%. Greenbrier closed its fiscal 2025 with record diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.35 and full-year revenue of $3.24 billion, marking a high-water mark in profitability.
In recent weeks, however, sentiment has shifted. The company's fiscal 2026 guidance calls for a meaningful downshift: deliveries of 17,500 to 20,500 units, revenue of $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion, and EPS of $3.75 to $4.75 — a notable contraction from the prior year's record. First-quarter fiscal 2026 results confirmed this trajectory, with EPS of $1.14 on revenue of $706 million, reflecting lower production rates and planned volume declines. Greenbrier has also been executing European facility rationalization, which carries near-term costs but is expected to generate approximately $20 million in annualized savings. The stock has been range-bound in the mid-to-high $40s, with a 52-week range spanning roughly $38 to $59. The market appears to be pricing in a cyclical trough, with shares trading at a modest P/E ratio around 10 and a dividend yield near 2.7%, supported by 47 consecutive quarterly payouts.
WAB Overview and Recent Performance
WAB, based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, is one of the world's largest providers of equipment, systems, digital solutions, and aftermarket services for both freight rail and passenger transit. Wabtec's product portfolio spans locomotives, braking systems, couplers, signaling, platform doors, and a growing suite of digital and inspection technologies. Its revenue base is geographically diversified, with international operations contributing a growing and increasingly profitable share.
Wabtec's recent market activity reflects strong operational momentum. Full-year 2025 produced GAAP EPS of $6.83 and adjusted EPS of $8.97 on $11.17 billion in revenue, with operating cash flow reaching $1.76 billion — a cash conversion rate of 104%. The company's multi-year backlog hit a record $27 billion, up 23% year over year, providing exceptional forward visibility. For 2026, management has guided adjusted EPS to $10.05–$10.45 on revenue of $12.19 billion to $12.49 billion, reflecting approximately 14% growth at the midpoint. Wabtec has been active in mergers and acquisitions (M&A), closing the acquisitions of Evident's Inspection Technologies division, Frauscher Sensor Technology, and most recently Dellner Couplers — deals collectively valued at several billion dollars and expected to be accretive to margins and EPS in their first year. The board raised the quarterly dividend by 24% and expanded the share repurchase authorization to $1.2 billion. The stock has traded firmly above the $200 level, supported by investment-grade credit ratings from both Moody's (Baa2) and S&P (BBB).
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The contrast between GBX and WAB is fundamentally about breadth and diversification. Greenbrier's business is concentrated in freight railcar manufacturing and leasing — a cyclical industry sensitive to North American rail traffic volumes, commodity demand, and fleet replacement cycles. When freight markets are strong, Greenbrier's operating leverage can produce rapid earnings expansion, as seen in fiscal 2024–2025. When demand softens, as current guidance suggests, revenue and margins compress more sharply.
Wabtec, by contrast, operates across multiple segments — Freight (equipment, services, components, digital) and Transit (original equipment and aftermarket) — with a far larger installed base of locomotives and transit systems generating recurring aftermarket revenue. Its $27 billion backlog spans years and includes both new equipment and multi-year service contracts, insulating it from short-term cyclical swings. Wabtec's adjusted operating margins, consistently above 20%, dwarf Greenbrier's mid-to-high single-digit manufacturing margins, though Greenbrier's leasing segment delivers substantially higher margins on its own.
From a risk perspective, Greenbrier carries higher cyclical beta and more concentrated exposure to North American and European freight railcar demand. Wabtec's risks include integration complexity from multiple large acquisitions, tariff exposure given its global supply chain, and execution risk in its ongoing restructuring programs. On valuation, GBX trades at a significant discount to WAB across nearly every metric, but that discount reflects a fundamentally different growth and stability profile rather than a simple mispricing.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend characteristics and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI-driven analytical framework would likely favor WAB in the current environment. Wabtec's combination of a record backlog, consistent double-digit adjusted EPS growth, expanding margins, and a diversified revenue base across freight and transit creates a more stable and predictable trend profile. Greenbrier's valuation may appeal to deep-value and cycle-timing investors, and its leasing segment provides a durable earnings floor, but the prevailing trajectory of downward earnings revisions and manufacturing headwinds introduces trend inconsistency that most AI models would penalize. This assessment reflects a probabilistic reading of momentum, stability, and catalyst alignment — not a definitive prediction — and conditions can shift as new data emerges.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GBX is a Hold and WAB is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GBX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileWAB’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- GBX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- WAB’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GBX’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WAB’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GBX’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WAB’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
GBX (@Railroads) experienced а -5.51% price change this week, while WAB (@Railroads) price change was -3.85% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Railroads industry was -4.57%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.54%.
Reported Earning Dates
GBX is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
WAB is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Railroads (-4.57% weekly)The Railroad industry includes passenger and freight transportation services along rail lines. This also includes companies that provide maintenance and switching duties as part of rail services. Within North America, the industry is largely dominated by some large operators. Several short-line railroads serve regional and local routes. Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, and CSX Corporation are some of the prominent names in the business. The railroad business is relatively cyclical; economic expansion boost the freight services in particular, while economic stagnation often dampens transportation demand.
| GBX | WAB | GBX / WAB | |
| Capitalization | 1.52B | 49.1B | 3% |
| EBITDA | 326M | 2.49B | 13% |
| Gain YTD | 7.516 | 36.597 | 21% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.57 | 39.15 | 37% |
| Revenue | 2.63B | 12B | 22% |
| Total Cash | 274M | 670M | 41% |
| Total Debt | 1.88B | 6.57B | 29% |
GBX | WAB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 27 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 14 Undervalued | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 73 | 4 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 82 | 67 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 10 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 22 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GBX's Valuation (14) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for WAB (90). This means that GBX’s stock grew significantly faster than WAB’s over the last 12 months.
WAB's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for GBX (73). This means that WAB’s stock grew significantly faster than GBX’s over the last 12 months.
WAB's SMR Rating (67) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as GBX (82). This means that WAB’s stock grew similarly to GBX’s over the last 12 months.
WAB's Price Growth Rating (10) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GBX (50). This means that WAB’s stock grew somewhat faster than GBX’s over the last 12 months.
GBX's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as WAB (22). This means that GBX’s stock grew similarly to WAB’s over the last 12 months.
| GBX | WAB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 43% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 42% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 73% | 11 days ago 65% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 73% | 15 days ago 43% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 49% | 4 days ago 46% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 66% |
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GBX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GBX has been loosely correlated with TRN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GBX jumps, then TRN could also see price increases.
WAB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WAB has been loosely correlated with UNP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 46% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if WAB jumps, then UNP could also see price increases.