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UNP vs WAB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Union Pacific (UNP) vs. Wabtec (WAB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Union Pacific delivered record full-year 2025 results, with net income growing 6% and diluted EPS (earnings per share) rising 8%, supported by industry-leading safety and operating metrics.
- Wabtec posted full-year 2025 adjusted EPS growth of nearly 19%, driven by a record $27 billion multi-year backlog and a series of strategic acquisitions that expanded its technology portfolio.
- UNP's signature move — a proposed merger with Norfolk Southern to create the first transcontinental U.S. railroad — introduces a major regulatory catalyst alongside execution uncertainty.
- WAB's $1.2 billion locomotive modernization contract with Union Pacific itself underscores the deepening commercial ties between these two rail industry players.
- In terms of market positioning, UNP offers a mature, dividend-focused value profile, while WAB presents a higher-growth, technology-driven narrative within the same broad transportation ecosystem.
- Both stocks operate in the cyclical railroad sector, making them sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, but their contrasting business models provide distinctly different risk-reward profiles for investors.
Introduction
Comparing UNP (Union Pacific Corporation) and WAB (Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation, known as Wabtec) offers a compelling study in two different ways to invest in the railroad industry. Union Pacific is a Class I freight railroad operator — one of the largest in North America — generating revenue by hauling goods across its 32,000-mile network. Wabtec, by contrast, manufactures locomotives, provides rail equipment, and delivers digital and aftermarket services to railroads and transit systems worldwide. Together, they sit at opposite ends of the rail value chain: one is an operator, the other a supplier. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a mature, dividend-paying industrial giant against a faster-growing technology-enabled equipment and services provider within the same sector.
UNP Overview and Recent Performance
Union Pacific, headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, is the largest public railroad in North America by market capitalization, connecting Pacific Coast and Gulf Coast ports to the Midwest and Eastern United States. The company generates freight revenue across three segments: Bulk (grain, fertilizers, coal, and renewables), Industrial (construction products, chemicals, plastics, metals), and Premium (intermodal containers and finished automobiles).
Financially, Union Pacific delivered a record-breaking 2025. Full-year net income reached $7.1 billion, reflecting a 6% increase over 2024, while diluted EPS rose 8% to $11.98. The company's operating ratio (operating expenses as a percentage of revenue, a key efficiency metric in the railroad industry) improved to 59.8% on a reported basis. Operational metrics reached historic highs as well: freight car velocity of 225 daily miles per car, terminal dwell of 20.9 hours, and workforce productivity all set full-year records. These results reinforced management's commitment to precision scheduled railroading principles.
In recent months, attention has centered on Union Pacific's proposed merger with Norfolk Southern, a transformative deal that would create America's first transcontinental railroad. The merger remains under regulatory review, and freight customers have urged regulators to scrutinize the combination for its potential impact on pricing and service. Meanwhile, the company's 2026 outlook calls for mid-single-digit EPS growth against a muted economic backdrop, with a $3.3 billion capital plan and consistent dividend increases. The company also finalized a $1.2 billion locomotive modernization agreement with Wabtec, targeting efficiency and reliability gains across more than 1,700 units beginning in 2027.
WAB Overview and Recent Performance
Wabtec, based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, operates across two primary segments: Freight (manufacturing and servicing components for freight cars and locomotives, building new commuter locomotives, and providing digital and signaling solutions) and Transit (manufacturing and servicing components for passenger transit vehicles, including high-speed trains, subway cars, and buses). With roots dating back to 1869, Wabtec has evolved from a braking equipment manufacturer into a diversified rail technology company.
Wabtec's full-year 2025 results demonstrated strong momentum. Total sales reached $11.17 billion, up 7.5% year over year, while adjusted diluted EPS surged nearly 19% to $8.97, marking the fifth consecutive year of high-teens adjusted EPS growth. The company's multi-year backlog hit a record $27 billion, up 23% from the prior year, providing substantial revenue visibility. Cash from operations totaled $1.76 billion, representing 104% cash conversion. In the fourth quarter alone, sales jumped 14.8% to $2.97 billion, fueled by growth in the Freight segment — including contributions from acquisitions — and a solid performance in Transit.
Wabtec has been active on the M&A (mergers and acquisitions) front, committing $3.5 billion in 2025 to strategic deals including Evident's Inspection Technologies division, Frauscher Sensor Technology Group, and the recently closed acquisition of Dellner Couplers in early 2026. These acquisitions expand Wabtec's digital intelligence and rail safety capabilities. The company also secured a landmark $4.2 billion locomotive order from Kazakhstan and a $386 million follow-on order from New York's MTA (Metropolitan Transportation Authority). Looking ahead, 2026 guidance calls for adjusted EPS between $10.05 and $10.45 — up approximately 14% at the midpoint — on sales of $12.19 billion to $12.49 billion. The board raised the quarterly dividend by 24% and increased the share buyback authorization to $1.2 billion.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Business Model and Revenue Drivers: Union Pacific is a pure-play freight railroad operator; its revenue depends on carload volumes, pricing power, and operational efficiency. Wabtec is an equipment manufacturer and service provider; its revenue is driven by locomotive orders, modernization programs, aftermarket parts and services, and digital solutions. UNP benefits when the economy moves more goods by rail; WAB benefits when railroads and transit agencies invest in new equipment and technology upgrades — including those purchased by customers like Union Pacific itself.
Scale and Profitability: Union Pacific dwarfs Wabtec in size, with a market capitalization of approximately $140 billion versus roughly $44 billion, and annual revenue of $24.5 billion against $11.2 billion. UNP's operating ratio of 59.8% reflects best-in-class efficiency for a Class I railroad. Wabtec's adjusted operating margin of approximately 17.7% in Q4 2025 (21.0% for the full year on an adjusted basis) reflects its higher-margin aftermarket and digital businesses but also the capital-intensive nature of locomotive manufacturing.
Growth Trajectory: Wabtec has demonstrated faster earnings growth, with adjusted EPS up nearly 19% in 2025 and guidance pointing to another 14% growth in 2026. Union Pacific's EPS growth of 8% in 2025 and its mid-single-digit 2026 outlook reflect a more mature, steady-growth profile. WAB's $27 billion backlog provides multi-year visibility that UNP, as an operator with no comparable backlog metric, does not offer in the same way.
Risk Factors: Union Pacific faces regulatory risk from its proposed Norfolk Southern merger, macroeconomic sensitivity to freight volumes, and exposure to cyclical industrial and agricultural end markets. Wabtec faces integration risk from its rapid pace of acquisitions, tariff-related cost pressures on its global supply chain, and potential headwinds if railroad industry consolidation reduces customer capital spending. Notably, JPMorgan analysts have flagged that railroad mergers could represent a modest headwind to Wabtec's organic revenue growth through fleet rationalization.
Shareholder Returns: Union Pacific offers a dividend yield of approximately 2.3%, supported by consistent annual increases and strong free cash flow. Wabtec's dividend yield is substantially lower at around 0.4%, but the company has demonstrated a commitment to rapid dividend growth (the recent 24% increase) and active share repurchases, reflecting a capital allocation strategy tilted toward reinvestment and M&A.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, relative momentum, and catalyst profiles, Tickeron's AI would likely view both UNP and WAB favorably but for different reasons. Wabtec's stronger earnings growth trajectory, record backlog, and multiple product-cycle catalysts — including the EVO modernization program and recent international orders — suggest it may hold an edge in near-term momentum and sentiment. The stock's double-digit adjusted EPS growth and upward estimate revisions point to a more dynamic growth narrative. Union Pacific, meanwhile, offers greater stability, a proven efficiency track record, and a potential transformative catalyst in its transcontinental merger, but that catalyst remains subject to uncertain regulatory outcomes. In a market environment where growth visibility commands a premium, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward Wabtec for its combination of backlog visibility, acquisition-driven expansion, and sustained earnings momentum — while recognizing Union Pacific as a higher-quality defensive holding for income-oriented portfolios.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is UNP is a Hold and WAB is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
UNP’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileWAB’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- UNP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- WAB’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
UNP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WAB’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- UNP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- WAB’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
UNP (@Railroads) experienced а -4.94% price change this week, while WAB (@Railroads) price change was -3.85% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Railroads industry was -4.57%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.54%.
Reported Earning Dates
UNP is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
WAB is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Railroads (-4.57% weekly)The Railroad industry includes passenger and freight transportation services along rail lines. This also includes companies that provide maintenance and switching duties as part of rail services. Within North America, the industry is largely dominated by some large operators. Several short-line railroads serve regional and local routes. Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, and CSX Corporation are some of the prominent names in the business. The railroad business is relatively cyclical; economic expansion boost the freight services in particular, while economic stagnation often dampens transportation demand.
| UNP | WAB | UNP / WAB | |
| Capitalization | 174B | 49.1B | 354% |
| EBITDA | 13.3B | 2.49B | 534% |
| Gain YTD | 27.608 | 36.597 | 75% |
| P/E Ratio | 23.65 | 39.15 | 60% |
| Revenue | 25.4B | 12B | 212% |
| Total Cash | 2.11B | 670M | 316% |
| Total Debt | 31.2B | 6.57B | 475% |
UNP | WAB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 89 | 27 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 43 | 4 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 67 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 18 | 10 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 29 | 22 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 45 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UNP's Valuation (85) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as WAB (90) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry. This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to WAB’s over the last 12 months.
WAB's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UNP (43) in the Railroads industry. This means that WAB’s stock grew somewhat faster than UNP’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's SMR Rating (25) in the Railroads industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WAB (67) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry. This means that UNP’s stock grew somewhat faster than WAB’s over the last 12 months.
WAB's Price Growth Rating (10) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as UNP (18) in the Railroads industry. This means that WAB’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
WAB's P/E Growth Rating (22) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as UNP (29) in the Railroads industry. This means that WAB’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
| UNP | WAB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 43% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 42% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 47% | 4 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 43% | 4 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 48% | 4 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 55% | 11 days ago 65% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 47% | 15 days ago 43% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 47% | 4 days ago 46% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 33% | 4 days ago 66% |
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UNP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNP has been closely correlated with NSC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNP jumps, then NSC could also see price increases.
WAB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WAB has been loosely correlated with UNP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 46% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if WAB jumps, then UNP could also see price increases.