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UNP vs WAB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Union Pacific (UNP) vs. Wabtec (WAB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- WAB has significantly outperformed UNP year-to-date (YTD, meaning from the start of the current year), gaining 23.95% compared to UNP's 9.59%.
- UNP provides a higher dividend yield of 2.19%, appealing to income-focused investors, versus WAB's 0.40%.
- Both stocks are poised for first-quarter earnings reports this week, with analysts expecting EPS (earnings per share) of $2.85 for UNP and $2.62 for WAB.
- WAB trades at a premium P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) of 38.75 compared to UNP's 21.05, reflecting its growth expectations.
- A recent $1.2 billion locomotive modernization deal between UNP and WAB underscores synergies in the rail sector.
- Analyst price targets indicate potential upside: $273 for UNP and $293 for WAB.
Introduction
This stock comparison pits UNP, a leading Class I railroad operator, against WAB, a key supplier of rail equipment and digital solutions. Both companies operate within the rail transportation sector, benefiting from freight demand and infrastructure modernization. Traders seeking momentum plays may eye WAB's recent outperformance, while long-term investors might prefer UNP's scale and dividends. With earnings season underway and rail synergies evident, this analysis highlights relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning to aid informed decision-making in the current environment.
UNP Overview and Recent Performance
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is one of North America's largest railroads, transporting freight across 23 western states with a focus on efficiency and precision scheduled railroading. In recent market activity, UNP shares have risen about 9.59% YTD, trading in the $250-$260 range amid stable volumes. Sentiment has been influenced by operational improvements, a settled dispute with a steel producer, and ongoing merger discussions with Norfolk Southern, which could reshape coast-to-coast rail dynamics. Despite softer freight demand in prior quarters, volume recovery and cost controls have supported resilience, with shares up roughly 12% over the past six months.
WAB Overview and Recent Performance
Wabtec Corporation (WAB) designs and manufactures locomotives, railcar components, and digital signaling systems, serving global freight and transit markets. Recent performance has been robust, with shares advancing 23.95% YTD and reaching a 52-week high near $276 earlier this month. Key drivers include a strong backlog, higher locomotive deliveries, and major contracts like the $1.2 billion deal with UNP and a $4.2 billion agreement in Kazakhstan. Positive Q4 results and upbeat 2026 guidance have boosted sentiment, though shares pulled back slightly in recent weeks amid broader market rotations.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
UNP and WAB both thrive in rail but differ in business models: UNP as a capital-intensive network operator emphasizes volume and efficiency, while WAB focuses on equipment sales, aftermarket services, and digital innovations for higher margins. Growth drivers contrast with WAB's backlog-fueled expansion versus UNP's steady freight recovery. Recent momentum favors WAB's 55% one-year gains over UNP's 17%, though UNP exhibits greater stability with lower volatility and a larger $150 billion market cap versus WAB's $45 billion. Risk factors include freight cyclicality for both, but UNP faces regulatory hurdles from merger talks, while WAB contends with supply chain pressures. Sector exposure ties them to industrial and energy demand, with positive sentiment from modernization deals enhancing WAB's positioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward WAB over UNP, citing superior trend consistency, YTD momentum, expanding backlogs, and catalysts like international contracts amid rail upgrades. While UNP offers defensive qualities and dividends, WAB's relative strength and growth trajectory present higher probabilistic upside in the near term, pending earnings outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is UNP is a Buy and WAB is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
UNP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileWAB’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- UNP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- WAB’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
UNP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WAB’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- UNP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WAB’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
UNP (@Railroads) experienced а -0.50% price change this week, while WAB (@Railroads) price change was +3.57% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Railroads industry was +1.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.57%.
Reported Earning Dates
UNP is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
WAB is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Railroads (+1.13% weekly)The Railroad industry includes passenger and freight transportation services along rail lines. This also includes companies that provide maintenance and switching duties as part of rail services. Within North America, the industry is largely dominated by some large operators. Several short-line railroads serve regional and local routes. Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, and CSX Corporation are some of the prominent names in the business. The railroad business is relatively cyclical; economic expansion boost the freight services in particular, while economic stagnation often dampens transportation demand.
| UNP | WAB | UNP / WAB | |
| Capitalization | 159B | 46.2B | 344% |
| EBITDA | 13.1B | 2.36B | 555% |
| Gain YTD | 16.827 | 27.796 | 61% |
| P/E Ratio | 22.01 | 38.49 | 57% |
| Revenue | 24.7B | 11.5B | 215% |
| Total Cash | 1.04B | 531M | 195% |
| Total Debt | 31.5B | 6.54B | 482% |
UNP | WAB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 72 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 82 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 5 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 23 | 67 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 25 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 34 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UNP's Valuation (82) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as WAB (88) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry. This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to WAB’s over the last 12 months.
WAB's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UNP (53) in the Railroads industry. This means that WAB’s stock grew somewhat faster than UNP’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's SMR Rating (23) in the Railroads industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WAB (67) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry. This means that UNP’s stock grew somewhat faster than WAB’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Price Growth Rating (25) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as WAB (25) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry. This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to WAB’s over the last 12 months.
WAB's P/E Growth Rating (34) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as UNP (46) in the Railroads industry. This means that WAB’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
| UNP | WAB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 47% | 9 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 43% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 59% |
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UNP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNP has been closely correlated with NSC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNP jumps, then NSC could also see price increases.
WAB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WAB has been loosely correlated with UNP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if WAB jumps, then UNP could also see price increases.