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GPC vs ORLY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Genuine Parts Company (GPC) vs. O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GPC is a diversified distributor of automotive and industrial parts, while ORLY is a pure-play automotive aftermarket retailer, creating distinct growth and margin profiles.
- GPC is executing a planned separation of its automotive and industrial businesses, while ORLY is expanding its store network and lean share count through buybacks.
- GPC returns cash primarily through dividends, with 70 consecutive years of increases; ORLY favors aggressive share repurchases over dividends.
- ORLY trades at a premium forward earnings multiple of roughly 26x versus a lower valuation for GPC, reflecting different risk and growth expectations.
- Both businesses benefit from an aging U.S. vehicle fleet, but GPC faces near-term cost and supply-chain pressure from geopolitical tensions.
Introduction
Investors weighing the automotive aftermarket often compare GPC (Genuine Parts Company) and ORLY (O'Reilly Automotive) as two ways to gain exposure to the same durable demand driver: the steadily rising average age of vehicles on U.S. roads. Yet the two companies are far from interchangeable. GPC is a global parts distributor spanning both automotive and industrial end markets, while ORLY is a focused specialty retailer serving professional mechanics and do-it-yourself customers. This stock comparison examines their relative performance, market positioning, and risk factors to help traders and investors understand which profile may be more suitable in the current environment.
GPC Overview and Recent Performance
Genuine Parts Company is a global distributor of automotive and industrial replacement parts, operating a network of more than 10,800 locations across 17 countries. In recent months, the company's most significant strategic development has been its announced plan to separate its automotive and industrial businesses into two independent, publicly traded companies, a move targeting completion in the first quarter of 2027 and pursued following pressure from activist investor Elliott Investment Management.
Recent financial results reflect a mixed picture. Second-quarter revenue rose roughly 6% year over year to about $6.54 billion, with the industrial segment, Motion, leading growth as comparable sales climbed in the mid-single digits. However, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) grew only modestly, while generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) net income declined amid restructuring and separation costs. Management has cited elevated freight, fuel, and logistics costs tied to Middle East conflict as a persistent drag on margins. Sentiment has been supported by the company's 70-year record of dividend growth, though the shares have shown uneven momentum in recent weeks as investors weigh execution risk around the upcoming separation.
ORLY Overview and Recent Performance
O'Reilly Automotive is one of the largest specialty retailers of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, and accessories in the United States, serving both professional service providers and do-it-yourself customers. The company ended its most recent quarter with nearly 6,700 stores across the U.S., Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada, and has laid out plans for one of its largest-ever years of store openings, including a meaningful long-term expansion opportunity in Mexico.
Fundamentally, ORLY has continued to post consistent growth. In its most recent quarter, revenue increased about 8% to $4.89 billion and comparable store sales rose 6%, with professional sales climbing 12.5% for a fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit gains. The company also raised its full-year outlook. Notably, ORLY returned significant capital to shareholders through buybacks, repurchasing billions of dollars of stock in the first half of the year and meaningfully reducing its diluted share count. Despite this operating strength, the share price has lagged, trading roughly 19% below its level of a year ago and below a record high reached in late 2025, as investors weigh a premium valuation and softer do-it-yourself traffic.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between these two stocks is business scope. GPC blends cyclical industrial distribution with automotive parts, which diversifies its revenue but also exposes it to industrial demand swings and restructuring complexity. ORLY, by contrast, is a concentrated, high-margin retailer with a gross margin above 50%, well above GPC's level, and a long track record of comparable-store sales growth.
Capital allocation also differs sharply. GPC prioritizes a growing dividend, appealing to income-oriented investors, while ORLY reinvests heavily in buybacks that reduce share count and accelerate EPS growth. In terms of momentum, ORLY has shown stronger and more consistent operational performance, yet its premium valuation has left the stock vulnerable to profit-taking, whereas GPC trades at a lower multiple but carries greater uncertainty around its pending separation and near-term cost inflation. Risk factors diverge accordingly: GPC faces margin pressure from freight and geopolitical supply-chain disruptions, while ORLY faces softer consumer discretionary spending, fading same-SKU price inflation, and higher leverage tied to its buyback strategy.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely view ORLY as the more consistent trend candidate, given its sustained comparable-store sales growth, strong professional-channel momentum, and reliable free cash flow generation. That said, the verdict is nuanced: ORLY's elevated valuation and negative recent price momentum temper the signal, while GPC's lower multiple, improving industrial demand, and catalyst-rich separation plan could attract models that favor value and event-driven positioning. In probabilistic terms, an AI framework would likely lean toward ORLY for trend stability, while acknowledging GPC as a higher-uncertainty, potentially higher-reward alternative depending on market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GPC is a Hold and ORLY is a Buy.
GPC's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GPC turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where GPC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GPC's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +1.77% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GPC advanced for three days, in 194 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 39 of 64 cases where GPC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GPC as a result. In 48 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
GPC moved below its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GPC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 24, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GPC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
GPC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for GPC entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GPC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GPC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 99 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.762) is normal, around the industry mean (0.841). GPC's P/E Ratio (475.077) is considerably higher than the industry average of (40.223). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.362) is also within normal values, averaging (1.471). Dividend Yield (0.034) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.722) is also within normal values, averaging (49.084).
ORLY's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ORLY turned positive on September 24, 2026. Looking at past instances where ORLY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ORLY as a result. In 49 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
ORLY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ORLY advanced for three days, in 207 of 384 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 136 of 267 cases where ORLY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 51%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ORLY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
ORLY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 3 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ORLY's P/B Ratio (-39.670) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (0.841). P/E Ratio (28.487) is within average values for comparable stocks, (40.223). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.620) is also within normal values, averaging (1.471). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.798) is also within normal values, averaging (49.084).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ORLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
GPC | ORLY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 32 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 99 Overvalued | 3 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 84 | 21 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 65 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 46 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ORLY's Valuation (3) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for GPC (99) in the Wholesale Distributors industry. This means that ORLY’s stock grew significantly faster than GPC’s over the last 12 months.
ORLY's Profit vs Risk Rating (21) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GPC (84) in the Wholesale Distributors industry. This means that ORLY’s stock grew somewhat faster than GPC’s over the last 12 months.
ORLY's SMR Rating (3) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for GPC (90) in the Wholesale Distributors industry. This means that ORLY’s stock grew significantly faster than GPC’s over the last 12 months.
GPC's Price Growth Rating (36) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as ORLY (51) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that GPC’s stock grew similarly to ORLY’s over the last 12 months.
GPC's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ORLY (65) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that GPC’s stock grew somewhat faster than ORLY’s over the last 12 months.
| GPC | ORLY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 37% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 60% | 5 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 16 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 51% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GPC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ORLY’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- GPC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ORLY’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GPC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ORLY’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GPC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
- ORLY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
GPC (@Auto Parts: OEM) experienced а -5.50% price change this week, while ORLY (@Auto Parts: OEM) price change was +4.64% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Auto Parts: OEM industry was -3.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.37%, and the average quarterly price growth was -17.31%.
Reported Earning Dates
GPC is expected to report earnings on Feb 18, 2027.
ORLY is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Auto Parts: OEM (-3.10% weekly)OEM or Original Equipment Manufacturer of auto parts refers to the original producer of a vehicles components, and so OEM car parts are usually identical to the parts used in producing the vehicle in the first place. OEM parts tend to fit the specifications of a particular model, and their compatibility is often guaranteed by the automaker itself. OEM parts could be more expensive to buy (compared to other vendors’ products) when a consumer goes for replacement. However, increased competition from aftermarket parts/third-party vendors could, in some cases, keep EOM prices in check. The industry might progress further in adopting newer technologies like 3D printing to boost supply chain performance and quality. Aptiv PLC, Magna International Inc. and BorgWarner Inc. are major OEMs for autos.
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GPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GPC has been loosely correlated with LKQ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GPC jumps, then LKQ could also see price increases.
ORLY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ORLY has been closely correlated with AZO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ORLY jumps, then AZO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ORLY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLY | 100% | +1.07% | ||
| AZO - ORLY | 79% Closely correlated | +2.01% | ||
| AAP - ORLY | 50% Loosely correlated | +1.03% | ||
| CPRT - ORLY | 45% Loosely correlated | +1.16% | ||
| LKQ - ORLY | 39% Loosely correlated | +0.05% | ||
| MUSA - ORLY | 36% Loosely correlated | -0.94% | ||
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