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GRBK vs KBH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Green Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. KB Home (KBH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Green Brick Partners (GRBK) posted record full-year home deliveries of 3,943 and maintained industry-leading gross margins of 30.5% in its most recent fiscal year, despite a challenging housing market.
- KB Home (KBH) delivered over 12,900 homes and generated $6.24 billion in revenue, but has faced meaningful margin compression, with housing gross profit margins declining to approximately 17% in its latest reported quarter.
- GRBK operates with a notably conservative balance sheet (net debt-to-total capital of just 6.3%), while KBH carries higher leverage (debt-to-capital ratio of 30.3%) but returns substantial capital to shareholders through aggressive buybacks and dividends.
- Year-to-date, GRBK has significantly outperformed KBH in terms of stock price appreciation, reflecting stronger relative momentum and investor confidence in its niche-focused business model.
- Both companies face the same macro headwinds — elevated mortgage rates, affordability concerns, and softening consumer sentiment — but their divergent geographic footprints, margin profiles, and capital strategies create distinct risk-reward profiles for investors.
Introduction
The U.S. homebuilding sector continues to navigate a complex environment shaped by persistently elevated mortgage interest rates, affordability pressures, and uneven consumer confidence. Within this landscape, two publicly traded homebuilders — Green Brick Partners (GRBK) and KB Home (KBH) — present contrasting approaches to the same market challenges. GRBK is a regional specialist concentrated on high-demand infill and infill-adjacent communities in Texas, Georgia, and Florida, while KBH is a diversified national builder operating across 49 markets. This stock comparison examines how these two companies differ in business model, recent performance, margin quality, balance sheet strength, and market positioning — offering traders and investors a clearer picture of relative performance and where the current opportunity may lie.
GRBK Overview and Recent Performance
Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK), headquartered in Plano, Texas, is a diversified homebuilding and land development company that operates through seven subsidiary builders across Texas, Georgia, and Florida. The company is the third-largest homebuilder in the Dallas-Fort Worth market and has built a reputation around its self-development land strategy, which gives it greater control over lot costs and delivery timelines. This approach has enabled GRBK to consistently post the highest gross margins among publicly traded homebuilders.
In its most recent fiscal year (ended December 31, 2025), GRBK reported record new home deliveries of 3,943 units and record home closings revenue of approximately $2.09 billion. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $7.07, and the company maintained a homebuilding gross margin of 30.5%, even as the broader industry experienced significant margin compression. In recent months, the stock has traded in a range between roughly $60 and $83, with year-to-date gains well into double digits, reflecting resilience relative to many peers. Key developments in recent weeks include the adoption of a new $150 million share repurchase program and continued expansion of the company's Trophy Signature Homes brand into growing Texas submarkets. With a cancellation rate of just 7.6% — among the lowest in the industry — and a net debt-to-total capital ratio of only 6.3%, GRBK has positioned itself with what management describes as a "fortress balance sheet."
KBH Overview and Recent Performance
KB Home (KBH), based in Los Angeles, California, is one of the largest and most established homebuilders in the United States, with operations spanning 49 markets and a history of nearly 700,000 homes built over more than 65 years. The company distinguishes itself through a build-to-order model that allows buyers to personalize their homes, and it consistently ranks as the #1 customer-ranked national homebuilder based on third-party buyer surveys. KBH also leads the industry in sustainability, having delivered more ENERGY STAR® certified homes than any other builder.
For its fiscal year ended November 30, 2025, KBH reported total revenues of $6.24 billion and net income of $428.8 million, with diluted EPS of $6.15. However, the company has faced notable headwinds: home deliveries declined 9% year-over-year to 12,902, and the housing gross profit margin fell to approximately 17% in the most recent quarter, down from nearly 21% a year earlier, reflecting price reductions, higher relative land costs, and geographic mix shifts. In recent weeks, KBH shares have pulled back from levels above $60 to the mid-$50s, with the stock's year-to-date performance essentially flat. On the positive side, the company completed an upsized $1.20 billion five-year credit facility, extended its $360 million term loan to 2029, and returned more than $600 million to shareholders during fiscal 2025 through share repurchases and dividends — underscoring a strong commitment to capital return even in a softening demand environment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both GRBK and KBH compete in the same industry, their profiles differ sharply across several dimensions that matter to investors.
Scale and Diversification. KBH is roughly three times larger by revenue ($6.24 billion vs. $2.09 billion) and operates in 49 markets, providing geographic diversification that can cushion regional downturns. GRBK, by contrast, is concentrated in three Sun Belt states — a narrower footprint that exposes it to regional economic risk but also allows deep local expertise and operational efficiency.
Margin Quality. This is perhaps the starkest differentiator. GRBK posted a 30.5% homebuilding gross margin for its full fiscal year, roughly double KBH's comparable figure. GRBK's margin advantage stems from its self-development land strategy, infill location focus, and lower reliance on price incentives. KBH, meanwhile, has seen its margins steadily compress as it navigates a more price-sensitive, entry-level buyer demographic across a wider range of markets.
Balance Sheet Strength. GRBK carries significantly less financial leverage, with a net debt-to-total capital ratio of 6.3% and no outstanding borrowings on its revolving credit facilities. KBH's debt-to-capital ratio stands at 30.3%, giving GRBK a clear advantage in financial flexibility during periods of market stress.
Shareholder Returns. KBH returned over $600 million to shareholders in fiscal 2025 via buybacks and dividends, far exceeding GRBK's $83 million in repurchases. Additionally, KBH pays a dividend (yielding roughly 1.7%), while GRBK does not.
Recent Momentum. GRBK has demonstrated stronger stock price momentum in recent months and year-to-date, buoyed by record operational results and its margin leadership. KBH, despite beating earnings expectations in its most recent quarters, has seen its stock price exhibit more sideways-to-downward movement, reflecting persistent concerns about margin erosion and order trends.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin stability, balance sheet quality, and relative momentum, Tickeron's AI-driven analytical framework would likely favor Green Brick Partners (GRBK) over KB Home (KBH) in the current market environment. GRBK's combination of industry-leading gross margins, a near-debt-free balance sheet, the lowest cancellation rates among public homebuilder peers, and record-setting operational metrics suggests a more durable competitive position. While KBH offers the advantages of scale, national diversification, and an aggressive capital return program, its trajectory of margin compression and softer order trends introduces a level of uncertainty that quantitative models typically penalize. That said, the AI's preference would reflect a probabilistic assessment of relative strength — not a prediction — and both stocks carry exposure to the same macro risks facing the entire housing sector. Investors should consider how each company's risk profile aligns with their own objectives before drawing conclusions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GRBK is a Hold and KBH is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GRBK’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileKBH’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- GRBK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- KBH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GRBK’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KBH’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GRBK’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 8 bearish.
- KBH’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
GRBK (@Homebuilding) experienced а -2.41% price change this week, while KBH (@Homebuilding) price change was -3.15% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -3.97%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.67%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.04%.
Reported Earning Dates
GRBK is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
KBH is expected to report earnings on Sep 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-3.97% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| GRBK | KBH | GRBK / KBH | |
| Capitalization | 3.04B | 3.37B | 90% |
| EBITDA | 376M | 368M | 102% |
| Gain YTD | 12.879 | -1.658 | -777% |
| P/E Ratio | 10.65 | 13.37 | 80% |
| Revenue | 2.03B | 5.5B | 37% |
| Total Cash | 132M | 201M | 66% |
| Total Debt | 292M | 2B | 15% |
GRBK | KBH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 13 | 12 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 51 Fair valued | 10 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 75 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 55 | 82 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 23 | 11 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KBH's Valuation (10) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GRBK (51). This means that KBH’s stock grew somewhat faster than GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KBH (75). This means that GRBK’s stock grew somewhat faster than KBH’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's SMR Rating (55) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (82). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (58). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
KBH's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (23). This means that KBH’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
| GRBK | KBH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 76% | 6 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 65% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 74% | 7 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 74% |
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| LRND | 44.98 | 0.85 | +1.92% |
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GRBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GRBK has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GRBK jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GRBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | 100% | +0.86% | ||
| PHM - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | -1.76% | ||
| MTH - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | -0.86% | ||
| TMHC - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| TOL - GRBK | 84% Closely correlated | -2.76% | ||
| KBH - GRBK | 83% Closely correlated | -2.45% | ||
More | ||||
KBH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KBH has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KBH jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.