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GRBK vs KBH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Green Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. KB Home (KBH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GRBK leads the public homebuilding industry in gross margins (about 30.5% for full-year 2025) and has maintained one of the lowest cancellation rates among its peers.
- KBH delivered an earnings beat in its latest quarter, yet revenue, net orders, and backlog declined sharply year over year amid affordability and mortgage-rate pressure.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: GRBK is the favored ticker, reflecting stronger trend consistency, superior margins, and a more defensive balance sheet relative to KBH.
- Both companies face the same housing-sector headwinds, but their relative performance and market positioning have diverged meaningfully in recent months.
- Explore more details on GRBK Major News and GRBK Today's Price Move, as well as KBH Major News and KBH Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated systems are navigating this market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Green Brick Partners (GRBK) and KB Home (KBH) are two U.S. homebuilders operating in the same challenging environment of elevated mortgage rates and constrained affordability, yet they occupy very different niches and exhibit distinct financial profiles. This stock comparison examines their relative performance, market positioning, and risk characteristics for traders and investors evaluating which name may offer more consistent trend quality and resilience. Growth-oriented investors seeking a high-margin, land-focused builder may find GRBK's profile compelling, while value-oriented investors may weigh KBH's lower valuation against its softer near-term demand and margin compression.
GRBK Overview and Recent Performance
GRBK is a Texas-based homebuilder concentrated in Texas, Georgia, and Florida, with a differentiated strategy built on self-developing land in supply-constrained infill and infill-adjacent submarkets. This positioning supports industry-leading profitability: full-year 2025 homebuilding gross margins reached roughly 30.5%, with record annual deliveries of 3,943 homes and nearly $2.1 billion in home closing revenue. In recent market activity, the stock has outperformed its construction peers, reflecting its top-tier margins, a low sales cancellation rate (around 7.6% in the latest quarter), and a conservative capital structure with a homebuilding debt-to-total capital ratio near 12.8%. Sentiment has been supported by management's disciplined pace-versus-price approach and share repurchases, even as affordability pressures have trimmed average selling prices and compressed margins from prior-year highs.
KBH Overview and Recent Performance
KBH is a national homebuilder targeting first-time and move-up buyers through a predominantly built-to-order model across multiple states and roughly 49 major markets. In its latest fiscal quarter (ended November 30, 2025), KBH reported revenue of about $1.69 billion, down roughly 15% year over year, while adjusted earnings per share of $1.92 exceeded consensus estimates. However, net orders fell about 10% and backlog value declined sharply (down around 37%), while the housing gross margin contracted to approximately 17.8%. These trends reflect price reductions, higher relative land costs, and an unfavorable geographic mix. KBH has nonetheless returned substantial capital to shareholders—more than $600 million in fiscal 2025, largely through buybacks—and has improved construction cycle times, though its near-term outlook remains pressured by soft consumer confidence and elevated rates.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively monitor and trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, and set of covered securities. Because not every bot suits every market regime, Tickeron curates only the strongest and most relevant strategies into its Trending AI Robots section. This curated list surfaces bots whose recent performance and statistical profiles align with current market conditions, giving traders a focused way to evaluate automated strategies across stocks like GRBK and KBH. Whether you are comparing momentum, trend-following, or swing-style approaches, reviewing these robots can provide a useful, data-driven perspective on how systematic models are positioning in the homebuilding sector.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two builders differ sharply in business model and profitability. GRBK's infill land self-development strategy produces materially higher gross margins and a lighter debt load, translating into stronger relative momentum and a low cancellation rate. KBH, by contrast, operates a broader, volume-oriented built-to-order model with lower gross margins, a thinner backlog, and greater sensitivity to mortgage-rate-driven demand swings. On valuation, KBH trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple and has returned more cash via aggressive buybacks, which may appeal to value-focused investors. On momentum and margin durability, however, GRBK has shown more consistent relative strength and balance-sheet flexibility. Key risk factors—affordability, incentives, land costs, and interest-rate sensitivity—affect both names, but their exposure and absorption differ materially given their distinct geographies and buyer bases.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, gross-margin leadership, a conservative balance sheet, and a low cancellation rate, Tickeron's AI would currently favor GRBK over KBH. GRBK's relative performance and defensiveness appear more aligned with sustained positive positioning, whereas KBH's declining backlog and margin compression introduce greater near-term uncertainty. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: it reflects current market conditions and may shift as mortgage rates, housing demand, and sentiment evolve. The verdict is a comparative analytical signal, not personalized investment advice.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GRBK is a StrongBuy and KBH is a StrongBuy.
GRBK's Stochastic Oscillator stoops into oversold zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for GRBK moved into oversold territory on November 12, 2026. Be on the watch for the price uptrend or consolidation in the future. At that time, consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GRBK's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 19 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GRBK just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where GRBK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 183 of 262 cases where GRBK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GRBK as a result. In 51 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
GRBK moved below its 50-day moving average on November 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GRBK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
GRBK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.446) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (9.733) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.110) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.421) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. GRBK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
KBH in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026
KBH moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 26 of 35 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KBH as a result. In 59 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KBH just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where KBH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The 10-day moving average for KBH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +6.30% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KBH advanced for three days, in 207 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 173 of 233 cases where KBH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for KBH moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 64%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 39 of 58 cases where KBH's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KBH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
KBH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. KBH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.812) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (12.071) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.280) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.573) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KBH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
GRBK | KBH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 22 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 47 Fair valued | 50 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 80 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 79 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 12 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GRBK's Valuation (47) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (50). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's Profit vs Risk Rating (33) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KBH (80). This means that GRBK’s stock grew somewhat faster than KBH’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's SMR Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (79). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
KBH's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (58). This means that KBH’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
KBH's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (25). This means that KBH’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
| GRBK | KBH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | N/A | 12 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 74% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GRBK’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while KBH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- GRBK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- KBH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GRBK’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KBH’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GRBK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KBH’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
GRBK (@Homebuilding) experienced а -7.56% price change this week, while KBH (@Homebuilding) price change was -6.51% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -3.55%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.79%.
Reported Earning Dates
GRBK is expected to report earnings on Mar 03, 2027.
KBH is expected to report earnings on Dec 17, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-3.55% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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GRBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GRBK has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GRBK jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GRBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | 100% | -2.71% | ||
| MTH - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | -2.60% | ||
| PHM - GRBK | 87% Closely correlated | -2.01% | ||
| TOL - GRBK | 84% Closely correlated | -1.99% | ||
| KBH - GRBK | 83% Closely correlated | -2.73% | ||
| DHI - GRBK | 83% Closely correlated | -1.72% | ||
More | ||||
KBH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KBH has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KBH jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
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