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HIG vs PGR
Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) vs Progressive Corporation (PGR) Earnings Preview: Q1 Expectations and Peer Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both HIG and PGR are leading property and casualty (P&C) insurers with upcoming Q1 2026 earnings, PGR reporting on April 15 and HIG on April 23.
- Analysts expect PGR Q1 EPS of ~$4.77 on $22.6B revenue, following a Q4 2025 beat with $4.67 EPS (vs. $4.44 est.).
- HIG Q1 consensus EPS ~$3.37 on ~$7.3B revenue, building on strong Q4 2025 core EPS of $4.06 (vs. $3.22 est.).
- PGR boasts superior scale with ~$114B market cap vs. HIG's $39B, and higher ROE (~40% full-year 2025).
- Both show premium growth and improving profitability, but PGR leads in revenue scale while HIG excels in diversified P&C segments.
- Combined ratios remain favorable, signaling underwriting discipline amid rising catastrophe risks.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
The property and casualty insurance sector faces ongoing pressures from catastrophe losses, inflation in claims costs, and competitive premium pricing. Yet, both HIG (The Hartford Financial Services Group) and PGR (The Progressive Corporation) have demonstrated resilience through premium growth and expense control. As diversified P&C players—HIG spanning commercial, personal lines, and group benefits, and PGR dominating personal auto with expanding property—this matchup highlights contrasts in scale, growth trajectories, and profitability. Investors watch Q1 results closely for signals on combined ratio (losses plus expenses divided by premiums earned), net favorable prior year development (PYD), and investment income amid volatile markets.
Progressive Corporation Focus
Progressive reports Q1 2026 earnings on April 15, with consensus expecting EPS around $4.77, up modestly from $4.65 year-ago, on revenue of ~$22.6 billion (9.7% growth). This follows a stellar Q4 2025 where EPS hit $4.67 (beat $4.44 est. by 5%), driven by net premiums earned up 10% to $21.1B for the year and a combined ratio below 90%, yielding 40% ROE. Key watches include policies in force growth (recently ~4% in property), personal auto retention amid competition, and investment yields. Progressive's data-driven underwriting has sustained premium momentum, with net premiums written up 8% in Q4, though revenue slightly missed in some reports due to earned premium timing.
Hartford Financial Services Group Context
Hartford's Q1 2026 results arrive April 23 (release) and April 24 (call), with EPS consensus ~$3.37 (up from $2.20 year-ago) and revenue ~$7.3B. Q4 2025 showcased core EPS $4.06 (beat $3.22 est. by 26%), net income $1.1B, and full-year core earnings $3.8B with 19.4% ROE. P&C written premiums grew 5%, Business Insurance underlying combined ratio at 88.1%, bolstered by 7% premium growth and favorable PYD. Personal lines restored profitability, while Employee Benefits margins hit 7.6%. Diversification mitigates auto volatility seen at pure-plays like Progressive.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
Progressive dwarfs Hartford in scale—$87.6B TTM revenue vs. $28B, $114B market cap vs. $39B—but Hartford's diversification yields steadier earnings beats (recent streak). Both crushed Q4 estimates: PGR's 5% EPS surprise on premium growth; HIG's 26% on investment income and lower cats. ROE favors PGR (~40%) over HIG (19.4%), reflecting superior underwriting (87.4 combined ratio vs. HIG P&C ~88-90). Growth drivers: PGR's auto/property expansion vs. HIG's commercial strength (9% small business premiums). Risks align on catastrophe exposure and loss trends, but PGR's higher policies in force amplify volatility. Sentiment tilts to PGR for momentum, HIG for value (similar P/E ~10).
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI currently favors PGR (~65% probability) for superior earnings quality, trend strength, and ROE dominance, though HIG offers stability with diversification (35% edge in risk-adjusted positioning).
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HIG is a Hold and PGR is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HIG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whilePGR’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- HIG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PGR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HIG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PGR’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HIG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PGR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HIG (@Multi-Line Insurance) experienced а -1.27% price change this week, while PGR (@Property/Casualty Insurance) price change was -1.17% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Multi-Line Insurance industry was -0.08%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.38%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.17%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Property/Casualty Insurance industry was -0.41%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.90%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
HIG is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
PGR is expected to report earnings on Jul 09, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Multi-Line Insurance (-0.08% weekly)A multi-line insurance contract bundles together exposures to risk and covers them under a single contract. For providers of such policies, the bundle is a potential risk diversification strategy since their exposure gets spread over several factors, which helps them mitigate a financial burden if a catastrophic event were to occur. Other potential benefits include getting more premiums from including more than one type of insurance in a bundle, and getting a competitive edge by procuring multiple insurance contracts with a customer. Examples of companies in this industry are Berkshire Hathaway (which owns several insurance companies), Chubb Limited, American International Group, Inc. and Sun Life Financial Inc.
@Property/Casualty Insurance (-0.41% weekly)Property and casualty companies insure against accidents of non-physical harm, such as lawsuits, damage to personal assets, car crashes and more. Progressive Corporation, Travelers Companies, Inc. and Allstate Corporation are some of the biggest providers of such products.
| HIG | PGR | HIG / PGR | |
| Capitalization | 36.2B | 115B | 31% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | -3.719 | -7.990 | 47% |
| P/E Ratio | 9.30 | 10.02 | 93% |
| Revenue | 28.5B | 89.4B | 32% |
| Total Cash | 21.8B | 13.1B | 166% |
| Total Debt | 4.37B | 8.39B | 52% |
HIG | PGR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 66 | 76 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 55 Fair valued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 39 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 89 | 75 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 79 | 92 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 45 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HIG's Valuation (55) in the Multi Line Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (76) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry. This means that HIG’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
HIG's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Multi Line Insurance industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PGR (39) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry. This means that HIG’s stock grew somewhat faster than PGR’s over the last 12 months.
PGR's SMR Rating (75) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as HIG (89) in the Multi Line Insurance industry. This means that PGR’s stock grew similarly to HIG’s over the last 12 months.
HIG's Price Growth Rating (60) in the Multi Line Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (61) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry. This means that HIG’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
HIG's P/E Growth Rating (79) in the Multi Line Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (92) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry. This means that HIG’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
| HIG | PGR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 46% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 47% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 41% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 58% | 15 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 44% | 5 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 55% |
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PGR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PGR has been closely correlated with HIG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PGR jumps, then HIG could also see price increases.