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HIG vs PGR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) vs. The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HIG and PGR are both major U.S. property and casualty (P&C) insurers, with HIG offering multi-line coverage including group benefits and PGR focusing primarily on personal and commercial auto and property lines.
- Recent market activity shows both stocks trading below their 52-week highs, with HIG near $132 and PGR near $213 as of mid-to-late September 2026, reflecting modest pullbacks amid broader sector dynamics.
- HIG reported Q2 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of $3.42, exceeding consensus, alongside revenue growth and a share repurchase program, supporting relative stability in recent weeks.
- PGR posted strong net premiums written growth of 6% in August 2026, though its stock has shown greater year-to-date (YTD) pressure compared with HIG.
- Market capitalization differs significantly, with PGR at approximately $124 billion versus HIG near $36 billion, highlighting scale advantages for the larger insurer.
- Both companies maintain low beta values, indicating lower volatility relative to the broader market, though HIG has exhibited slightly more consistent recent performance metrics.
Introduction
The comparison of HIG and PGR focuses on two established players in the property and casualty insurance sector. Investors and traders seeking exposure to the insurance industry often evaluate these names for differences in business mix, scale, earnings consistency, and market positioning. This analysis examines recent price behavior, operational developments, and relative factors that may influence sentiment over the coming periods. Portfolio managers and active traders monitoring financials stocks may find the side-by-side review useful for assessing diversification within the sector.
HIG Overview and Recent Performance
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. operates as a multi-line insurer providing property and casualty coverage, group benefits, and related services. In recent market activity, the stock has traded in a range below its 52-week high of $146.07, closing near $132 in mid-September 2026 sessions. Q2 2026 results showed EPS of $3.42, surpassing analyst estimates, with revenue reaching $7.26 billion, an 8.1% year-over-year increase. A multi-billion-dollar share repurchase authorization has supported investor focus on capital return. Year-to-date performance reflects a modest decline of approximately 2-3%, with the 50-day moving average around $139. Institutional ownership remains high at over 93%. Sentiment has been influenced by disciplined underwriting and expense management amid stable premium trends.
PGR Overview and Recent Performance
The Progressive Corporation specializes in personal and commercial auto insurance as well as property lines, serving a broad customer base through direct and agency channels. The stock has experienced recent downward pressure, trading near $213 in late September 2026 after closing sessions around that level, below its 52-week high of $248.17. August 2026 results highlighted 6% growth in net premiums written, with continued expansion in direct channels. Year-to-date returns show a decline near 6%, with one-month performance also negative. Trailing twelve-month EPS stands near $19.95, supporting a price-to-earnings ratio around 10.7. Market capitalization exceeds $124 billion. Recent sentiment reflects strong premium growth offset by broader market rotation away from the name in recent weeks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
HIG and PGR operate in overlapping insurance segments but differ in scale and emphasis. PGR commands significantly larger market capitalization and revenue, driven by its dominant position in personal auto. HIG maintains a more diversified multi-line model that includes group benefits, potentially offering steadier earnings across economic cycles. Recent momentum favors HIG on a relative YTD basis, while PGR has delivered stronger premium growth. Risk factors include catastrophe exposure for both, with PGR showing higher historical volatility. Market sentiment has been constructive on earnings beats for HIG and volume expansion for PGR, though both face sector-wide pressures from interest rates and claims trends. Trade-offs center on HIG’s relative stability versus PGR’s growth-oriented profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, and relative positioning in recent market activity, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a modestly higher probabilistic preference to HIG. The company’s recent earnings outperformance, share repurchase activity, and lower drawdown profile in the observed period contribute to this assessment. PGR demonstrates strong premium momentum but has faced greater price pressure year-to-date. These observations reflect probabilistic modeling rather than certainty, and outcomes remain subject to evolving market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HIG is a StrongBuy and PGR is a Buy.
HIG | PGR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 70 | 72 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 38 Fair valued | 59 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 30 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 91 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 68 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 21 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HIG's Valuation (38) in the Multi Line Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (59) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry. This means that HIG’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
HIG's Profit vs Risk Rating (10) in the Multi Line Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (30) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry. This means that HIG’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
HIG's SMR Rating (90) in the Multi Line Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (91) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry. This means that HIG’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
PGR's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as HIG (60) in the Multi Line Insurance industry. This means that PGR’s stock grew similarly to HIG’s over the last 12 months.
PGR's P/E Growth Rating (68) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as HIG (73) in the Multi Line Insurance industry. This means that PGR’s stock grew similarly to HIG’s over the last 12 months.
| HIG | PGR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 53% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 42% | 1 day ago 43% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 8 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 47% | 13 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 30% | 1 day ago 36% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HIG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PGR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- HIG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PGR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HIG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PGR’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HIG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PGR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HIG (@Multi-Line Insurance) experienced а +0.13% price change this week, while PGR (@Property/Casualty Insurance) price change was +1.55% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Multi-Line Insurance industry was +0.51%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.30%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.84%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Property/Casualty Insurance industry was +1.58%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.10%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.09%.
Reported Earning Dates
HIG is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
PGR is expected to report earnings on Oct 08, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Multi-Line Insurance (+0.51% weekly)A multi-line insurance contract bundles together exposures to risk and covers them under a single contract. For providers of such policies, the bundle is a potential risk diversification strategy since their exposure gets spread over several factors, which helps them mitigate a financial burden if a catastrophic event were to occur. Other potential benefits include getting more premiums from including more than one type of insurance in a bundle, and getting a competitive edge by procuring multiple insurance contracts with a customer. Examples of companies in this industry are Berkshire Hathaway (which owns several insurance companies), Chubb Limited, American International Group, Inc. and Sun Life Financial Inc.
@Property/Casualty Insurance (+1.58% weekly)Property and casualty companies insure against accidents of non-physical harm, such as lawsuits, damage to personal assets, car crashes and more. Progressive Corporation, Travelers Companies, Inc. and Allstate Corporation are some of the biggest providers of such products.
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HIG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HIG has been closely correlated with TRV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HIG jumps, then TRV could also see price increases.
PGR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PGR has been closely correlated with ALL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PGR jumps, then ALL could also see price increases.