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PGR vs WRB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Progressive (PGR) vs. W. R. Berkley (WRB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both PGR and WRB operate in the property and casualty (P&C) insurance sector, with PGR focusing on personal auto and WRB on specialty commercial lines.
- In recent market activity, PGR reported strong year-over-year growth in net premiums written and net income, while WRB announced an 11.1% dividend increase and a special cash dividend.
- Year-to-date through early July 2026, PGR posted an 8.88% return compared to 2.70% for WRB, though both trailed the S&P 500 in longer-term measures.
- PGR trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple around 11.9 with expectations of robust Q2 earnings, whereas WRB benefits from a recent rating upgrade and high return on equity of 21.2% in Q1.
- Sector sentiment remains supported by underwriting discipline amid evolving rate environments, with upcoming earnings reports for both stocks in mid-July 2026 serving as near-term catalysts.
- Relative positioning highlights trade-offs between PGR’s scale-driven growth and WRB’s capital return focus and specialty market exposure.
Introduction
The comparison between PGR and WRB offers insights for investors and traders evaluating property and casualty insurance equities in a period of shifting interest rates and economic conditions. Both companies have demonstrated resilience through underwriting performance and premium growth, yet they differ in business focus, capital allocation, and recent market reactions. This analysis appeals to those seeking data-driven perspectives on relative performance, sector exposure, and positioning within the broader insurance landscape.
PGR Overview and Recent Performance
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a major provider of personal auto insurance and related services. In recent market activity, the stock has shown resilience amid broader market fluctuations, with a year-to-date return of 8.88% as of early July 2026. Monthly reports highlighted continued expansion, including a 6% year-over-year increase in May net premiums written to $7.0 billion and a 36% rise in net income. Sentiment has been influenced by consistent policy growth and expectations for Q2 earnings, scheduled for mid-July, with analysts projecting EPS around $4.56. The shares have traded in a range near $232–$237 recently, reflecting steady demand for its core offerings despite longer-term underperformance relative to the S&P 500 over one year.
WRB Overview and Recent Performance
W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) specializes in commercial lines and specialty insurance products. Recent market activity featured positive developments around capital returns, including an 11.1% quarterly dividend increase and a special cash dividend announcement. The stock posted a year-to-date return of 2.70% through early July 2026. Q1 results showed net income growth of 23.4% and an operating return on equity of 21.2%, supported by underwriting and investment income. A rating upgrade from AM Best contributed to sentiment, though the shares have traded near $71 amid caution over valuation. Upcoming Q2 earnings in late July provide a focal point for assessing ongoing momentum in its diversified portfolio.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
PGR operates at larger scale in personal lines with emphasis on volume-driven premium growth, while WRB focuses on specialty commercial segments that often feature higher margins but different risk profiles. Recent momentum favors PGR through sustained premium expansion, contrasting with WRB’s strength in shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks. Risk factors include PGR’s sensitivity to auto claim trends versus WRB’s exposure to commercial cycles. Both maintain sector exposure in property and casualty insurance, yet market sentiment has highlighted PGR’s earnings visibility ahead of its report and WRB’s capital return initiatives as differentiators.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency in premium growth, earnings stability, and relative positioning within the sector, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a modest probabilistic edge to PGR over WRB. This assessment reflects stronger recent premium momentum and scale advantages, though outcomes remain subject to upcoming earnings data and broader market dynamics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PGR is a Hold and WRB is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PGR’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileWRB’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PGR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- WRB’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PGR’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WRB’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PGR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WRB’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PGR (@Property/Casualty Insurance) experienced а +1.21% price change this week, while WRB (@Property/Casualty Insurance) price change was +4.12% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Property/Casualty Insurance industry was +0.53%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +13.08%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
PGR is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
WRB is expected to report earnings on Jul 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Property/Casualty Insurance (+0.53% weekly)Property and casualty companies insure against accidents of non-physical harm, such as lawsuits, damage to personal assets, car crashes and more. Progressive Corporation, Travelers Companies, Inc. and Allstate Corporation are some of the biggest providers of such products.
| PGR | WRB | PGR / WRB | |
| Capitalization | 137B | 27.5B | 498% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 9.614 | 6.389 | 150% |
| P/E Ratio | 11.93 | 15.64 | 76% |
| Revenue | 89.4B | 14.8B | 604% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 8.39B | 2.84B | 295% |
PGR | WRB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 24 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 70 Overvalued | 79 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 33 | 53 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 30 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 80 | 54 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 43 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PGR's Valuation (70) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as WRB (79). This means that PGR’s stock grew similarly to WRB’s over the last 12 months.
WRB's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (26). This means that WRB’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
PGR's SMR Rating (33) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as WRB (53). This means that PGR’s stock grew similarly to WRB’s over the last 12 months.
WRB's Price Growth Rating (30) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (44). This means that WRB’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
WRB's P/E Growth Rating (54) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (80). This means that WRB’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
| PGR | WRB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 39% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 52% | 1 day ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 49% | 6 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 49% | 15 days ago 40% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 60% |
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PGR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PGR has been closely correlated with HIG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PGR jumps, then HIG could also see price increases.
WRB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WRB has been closely correlated with HIG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WRB jumps, then HIG could also see price increases.