HLMN vs NDSN

Key Takeaways

• HLMN’s hardware and protective‑solutions segment posted a modest 1.8% sales rise, helped by two recent acquisitions, while NDSN’s Canada segment fell 5.5% on pricing pressure and currency effects.
• Both companies rely heavily on a few large retailers—HLMN’s top two accounts generate ~41% of revenue, NDSN’s top customers account for roughly 35% of sales.
• HLMN’s adjusted EBITDA grew 10.3% to $241.8 M, whereas NDSN’s adjusted EBITDA slipped 2.2% to $210.2 M.
• Interest‑rate exposure is higher for NDSN (larger term‑loan balance); both firms face foreign‑exchange risk, but NDSN’s Canadian‑dollar exposure is larger.
• Both stocks have trended below the Russell 2000 index over the past 12 months, but HLMN shows higher relative volatility (β ≈ 1.5) than NDSN (β ≈ 1.4).

Introduction

Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) and The Hillman Group (NASDAQ:NDSN) are mid‑cap distributors of hardware‑related products serving North‑American retailers. Investors focused on industrial‑supply chains, DIY‑home‑improvement demand, and recurring revenue from service‑oriented distribution will compare these peers to gauge which offers a better risk‑adjusted upside under current market conditions.

HLMN Overview and Recent Performance

Hillman Solutions Corp. operates three segments—Hardware & Protective Solutions, Robotics & Digital Solutions, and Canada. In FY 2024 the company recorded $1.473 B in net sales, a 0.3% decline YoY. The modest dip masks a 1.8% lift in the Hardware & Protective Solutions segment, driven by the acquisitions of Koch (Jan 2024) and Intex (Aug 2024), which added $61 M in net sales. However, pricing pressure and a soft home‑improvement market offset those gains. Robotics & Digital Solutions sales fell 6.5% as key‑duplication volume softened, while the Canada segment slipped 5.5% due to price reductions and a weaker CAD. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $241.8 M (+10.3%), supported by cost‑control measures and higher operating leverage, while net income turned positive at $17.3 M (+$26.8 M YoY). The balance sheet holds $62 M of revolving‑credit capacity and $645 M of term‑loan debt, with a weighted‑average interest rate of ~4.2% (SOFR‑linked).

NDSN Overview and Recent Performance

The Hillman Group focuses on fasteners, building‑hardware, and related services across the United States and Canada. FY 2024 net sales fell 5.5% to $1.225 B, primarily from lower average selling prices and a 9% CAD depreciation impact. Adjusted EBITDA declined 2.2% to $210.2 M, reflecting higher SG&A intensity and a $5 M settlement with a kiosk partner. Net loss widened to $13.1 M, driven by a $5 M legal settlement and higher interest expense on a $800 M senior loan (average rate ~4.5%). The company maintains $375 M of asset‑based revolving credit and $826 M of term debt, with covenant‑linked leverage ratios near the minimum required. Currency exposure is higher than HLMN’s, given 31% of revenue is Canada‑derived.

Trending AI Robots

Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page showcases hundreds of AI‑driven trading bots that scan thousands of tickers. Only the bots that demonstrate consistent profitability, robust risk metrics (e.g., Sharpe ratio > 1.5, drawdown < 20%), and suitability for current market volatility make the curated list. These bots span diverse strategies—trend‑following, mean‑reversion, and macro‑driven—across multiple timeframes and asset classes. Users can filter bots by performance, asset class, or risk profile, helping them match a bot’s style to their investment objectives.

Head-to-Head Comparison

• Revenue Mix: HLMN derives ~74% of sales from its Hardware & Protective Solutions segment (high margin, repeat‑order business), while NDSN’s revenue is more evenly split, with 31% from Canada, increasing foreign‑exchange sensitivity.
• Growth Drivers: HLMN’s recent acquisitions (Koch, Intex) added ~5% top‑line growth; NDSN lacks comparable add‑on activity.
• Profitability: HLMN’s adjusted EBITDA margin is 16.4% versus NDSN’s 14.1%; HLMN also shows a stronger operating‑income margin (6.0% vs. 4.0%).
• Liquidity: HLMN’s cash‑conversion cycle remains healthy, with $5.96 M net cash increase in FY24 and $188.7 M of ABL revolving availability. NDSN’s cash flow is tighter, with a $28.9 M cash‑outflow from operating activities due to higher working‑capital needs.
• Debt Profile: NDSN carries a larger senior loan balance (~$800 M) and higher leverage (Debt/EBITDA ≈ 3.9×) versus HLMN’s ~4.5×. Both firms are exposed to rising SOFR rates, but NDSN’s interest expense is proportionally higher.
• Customer Concentration: Both firms rely on a few national retailers; HLMN’s top two accounts represent 41% of sales, NDSN’s top three account for about 35%.
• Currency Risk: NDSN’s CAD exposure (≈31% of revenue) subjects it to greater FX volatility; HLMN’s exposure is modest (≈9% CAD‑linked sales).
• Innovation & AI Integration: HLMN’s Robotics & Digital Solutions segment embeds AI‑enabled key‑duplication kiosks, providing a differentiating technology moat; NDSN’s product line is more traditional with limited AI exposure.

Tickeron AI Verdict

Based on current data, Tickeron’s AI models assign a modest probability‑weighted edge to HLMN over NDSN. HLMN shows stronger adjusted‑EBITDA growth, better margin resilience, and a diversified product portfolio with an AI‑enhanced robotics segment. However, the valuation premium (P/E ≈ 41× vs. NDSN’s ≈ 45×) and higher beta suggest higher volatility. The AI verdict concludes that, **ceteris paribus**, HLMN is slightly more favorably positioned for near‑term upside, while NDSN remains a value‑play subject to FX and margin pressure.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations.