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GGG vs HLMN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Graco Inc. (GGG) vs. Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different profiles: GGG is a high-margin industrial fluid-handling equipment maker, while HLMN is a hardware products distributor with a fast-growing robotics and digital services segment.
- Recent results diverged: Both posted record revenue in their latest quarter, but HLMN beat profit estimates while GGG missed on both revenue and earnings per share (EPS).
- Margin dynamics favor HLMN: GGG's operating margin compressed notably, while HLMN reiterated its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) and free cash flow outlook.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: HLMN — based on more consistent execution, stable profitability guidance, and clearer growth catalysts.
- For deeper coverage, explore GGG Major News, GGG Today's Price Move, HLMN Major News, and HLMN Today's Price Move.
- To see which strategies are currently leading the market, visit Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors weighing exposure to industrials and hardware often compare companies that serve construction, manufacturing, and home-improvement end markets. Graco Inc. (GGG) and Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) both fit that theme, yet they operate with very different business models, margin profiles, and growth drivers. This stock comparison examines their recent relative performance, market positioning, and risk factors to help both long-term investors and active traders assess which name currently presents the more consistent opportunity. While neither is a pure like-for-like competitor, their shared exposure to cyclical demand makes the side-by-side analysis a useful framework for evaluating momentum, profitability, and sentiment.
GGG Overview and Recent Performance
Graco Inc. (GGG) designs and manufactures systems and equipment for managing, moving, and spraying fluids, coatings, and powders. Headquartered in Minneapolis, the company serves manufacturing, processing, construction, and maintenance customers across three segments: industrial, process, and contractor. Graco is widely regarded for its strong installed base and historically elite operating margins.
In its most recent quarter, Graco reported record sales of roughly $586 million, up about 8% year over year, with growth across all segments and geographies. However, the quarter missed Wall Street's revenue and adjusted EPS expectations, and the company guided to softer fourth-quarter revenue than analysts had modeled. Operating margin compressed by several percentage points as a less favorable product mix and acquisition-related costs weighed on profitability. Shares sold off sharply following the report, and several analysts trimmed price targets, citing backlog conversion and integration concerns. In recent weeks, sentiment has been cautious even as management pointed to accelerating organic orders and contributions from recent acquisitions such as Valco Melton, as well as a technology partnership targeting data-center cooling.
HLMN Overview and Recent Performance
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN), headquartered in Cincinnati, is a leading North American provider of hardware and related products, serving retail, professional distribution, and industrial MRO (maintenance, repair, and operations) customers. Its portfolio spans more than 100,000 SKUs (stock-keeping units), including fasteners, builder's hardware, project supplies, and key-and-engraving services, supported by a large direct-to-store field sales force.
Hillman posted record net sales of roughly $457.5 million in its latest quarter, up about 7.7% year over year. While revenue narrowly missed consensus, the company beat expectations on adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA, driven in part by a 19.2% increase in its higher-margin Robotics and Digital Solutions segment. Management reiterated its full-year adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow guidance while slightly lowering its net sales outlook. The company also completed its acquisition of Kanebridge, extending its presence into industrial distribution. The stock's reaction to the report was relatively measured, and recent coverage has highlighted strong free cash flow generation and an improving balance sheet as supportive factors.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is their business model and margin structure. GGG is a capital-equipment and consumables business with operating margins that historically exceed 25%, reflecting pricing power and a technical moat around fluid-handling technology. HLMN operates a distribution-and-merchandising model with single-digit operating margins, where profitability depends more on sourcing efficiency, route density, and scale.
Growth drivers also differ. GGG leans on organic order trends in industrial and semiconductor applications plus disciplined M&A (mergers and acquisitions), but is contending with margin dilution from recent deals and longer capital-project decision cycles. HLMN is expanding through tuck-in acquisitions and a high-margin Robotics and Digital Solutions segment while generating rising free cash flow. On risk, GGG faces cyclical industrial exposure and integration costs, whereas HLMN carries meaningful debt and customer concentration among large retailers. In terms of recent momentum and sentiment, HLMN's profit beats and reiterated cash-flow guidance stand in contrast to GGG's margin compression and cautious outlook.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward HLMN. The preference reflects more consistent execution in recent results — including earnings and EBITDA beats — alongside reiterated profitability and free cash flow guidance and a clear catalyst in the fast-growing Robotics and Digital Solutions business. By comparison, GGG is navigating margin compression, softer near-term guidance, and post-earnings sentiment pressure, even as its long-term franchise quality remains intact. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: it weighs trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, and could shift as new data emerges.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GGG is a StrongBuy and HLMN is a Hold.
GGG's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GGG turned positive on November 10, 2026. Looking at past instances where GGG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GGG's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 39 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GGG as a result. In 47 of 94 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +1.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GGG advanced for three days, in 147 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 87 of 211 cases where GGG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 41%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
GGG moved below its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GGG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GGG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
GGG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 11, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. GGG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.357) is normal, around the industry mean (3.843). P/E Ratio (21.009) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.971). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.334) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.643) is also within normal values, averaging (189.487).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GGG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock worse than average.
HLMN in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026
HLMN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 39 of 50 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HLMN as a result. In 50 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The 10-day moving average for HLMN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +6.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HLMN advanced for three days, in 187 of 266 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 114 of 175 cases where HLMN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 65%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for HLMN moved out of overbought territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 25 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 25 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 84%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 48 of 64 cases where HLMN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HLMN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
HLMN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HLMN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 54 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.321) is normal, around the industry mean (3.143). HLMN has a moderately high P/E Ratio (41.600) as compared to the industry average of (22.467). HLMN's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.020). HLMN has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.018). P/S Ratio (0.908) is also within normal values, averaging (2.217).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HLMN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock worse than average.
GGG | HLMN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 77 Overvalued | 54 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 83 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 45 | 86 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 71 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 77 | 57 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HLMN's Valuation (54) in the null industry is in the same range as GGG (77) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that HLMN’s stock grew similarly to GGG’s over the last 12 months.
GGG's Profit vs Risk Rating (83) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as HLMN (100) in the null industry. This means that GGG’s stock grew similarly to HLMN’s over the last 12 months.
GGG's SMR Rating (45) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HLMN (86) in the null industry. This means that GGG’s stock grew somewhat faster than HLMN’s over the last 12 months.
HLMN's Price Growth Rating (46) in the null industry is in the same range as GGG (71) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that HLMN’s stock grew similarly to GGG’s over the last 12 months.
HLMN's P/E Growth Rating (57) in the null industry is in the same range as GGG (77) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that HLMN’s stock grew similarly to GGG’s over the last 12 months.
| GGG | HLMN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 84% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 47% | 14 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 52% | 1 day ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 36% | 1 day ago 84% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 65% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GGG’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while HLMN’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- GGG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- HLMN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GGG’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HLMN’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GGG’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
- HLMN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
GGG (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а +0.78% price change this week, while HLMN (@Tools & Hardware) price change was -2.16% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was +2.87%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.89%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.20%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tools & Hardware industry was -2.24%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.78%.
Reported Earning Dates
GGG is expected to report earnings on Feb 01, 2027.
HLMN is expected to report earnings on Feb 25, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (+2.87% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
@Tools & Hardware (-2.24% weekly)Tools & Hardware industry includes companies that manufacture security products, storage cabinets, steel rules and tapes, calipers, shoe hook fasteners, lumber, structural materials and other related supplies. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., Snap-on Incorporated and L.S. Starrett Company are some of the largest, established players in this industry. The industry is also seeing rapid growth in online sales. The proliferation of do-it-yourself (DIY) projects has boosted industry demand. But oil price volatility poses potential risks to this industry, particularly to e-commerce companies which spend on services of shipping companies, which might alter charges based on oil price movements.
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GGG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GGG has been closely correlated with LECO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GGG jumps, then LECO could also see price increases.
HLMN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HLMN has been closely correlated with HLIO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HLMN jumps, then HLIO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HLMN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLMN | 100% | -1.84% | ||
| HLIO - HLMN | 71% Closely correlated | +0.13% | ||
| DCI - HLMN | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.57% | ||
| GGG - HLMN | 61% Loosely correlated | +4.71% | ||
| NDSN - HLMN | 61% Loosely correlated | +1.27% | ||
| PNR - HLMN | 60% Loosely correlated | -0.43% | ||
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