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HTLD vs ODFL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Heartland Express (HTLD) vs. Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Heartland Express (HTLD) and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) operate in the trucking sector but serve distinct segments: HTLD focuses on full truckload services while ODFL specializes in less-than-truckload (LTL) shipping.
- Both stocks have delivered strong year-to-date gains through recent market activity, with HTLD showing higher percentage returns amid its smaller market capitalization compared to ODFL.
- Recent developments for HTLD include a quarterly dividend declaration and earnings-related activity, while ODFL has seen multiple analyst price target increases and a dividend hike.
- Market sentiment reflects contrasting positioning, with ODFL benefiting from broader analyst support and ODFL trading near the upper end of its 52-week range.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs in growth drivers, with truckload carriers like HTLD facing different demand dynamics than LTL operators like ODFL.
- Sector exposure remains tied to freight volumes, fuel costs, and economic indicators affecting both companies similarly over broader timeframes.
Introduction
Heartland Express (HTLD) and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) represent two established players in the U.S. trucking industry, offering investors exposure to different segments of freight transportation. This comparison examines their business models, recent stock behavior, and market positioning to assist traders and investors evaluating relative performance in the current environment. The analysis draws on observable data from financial platforms and company disclosures, providing context for those monitoring transportation equities or seeking sector-specific insights without favoring either name through wording.
HTLD Overview and Recent Performance
Heartland Express (HTLD), headquartered in North Liberty, Iowa, provides short-, medium-, and long-haul truckload carrier services across the United States, Mexico, and Canada, serving industries including retail, manufacturing, and automotive. In recent weeks, the stock has exhibited volatility within a broader upward trajectory from lower levels earlier in the year, with prices fluctuating around the mid-teens amid earnings expectations and a declared quarterly dividend of $0.02 per share. Market activity reflects influences from freight demand patterns and operational updates, contributing to sentiment shifts observed in trading volumes and price action during the recent period.
ODFL Overview and Recent Performance
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), based in Thomasville, North Carolina, operates as one of the largest less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carriers, providing regional, inter-regional, and national services through an integrated network. During recent market activity, the stock has traded near the higher portion of its 52-week range, supported by announcements such as a dividend increase and multiple upward revisions to analyst price targets. Performance has aligned with sector trends, with earnings scheduled for late July influencing positioning amid steady investor attention to operational metrics and service quality indicators.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Heartland Express (HTLD) and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) differ fundamentally in business model, with HTLD emphasizing full truckload operations and ODFL focusing on less-than-truckload (LTL) services that often provide more predictable revenue streams. Growth drivers contrast as well: truckload carriers like HTLD respond to broader shipping volumes and capacity utilization, whereas ODFL benefits from network density and expedited offerings. Recent momentum shows both advancing from 52-week lows, yet ODFL has attracted more frequent analyst upgrades and target increases in the recent period. Risk factors include shared exposure to fuel prices and economic cycles, though ODFL’s larger scale and union-free structure may offer relative stability. Market sentiment appears more constructive toward ODFL based on coverage volume, highlighting trade-offs in size, segment focus, and visibility for investors assessing transportation equities.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, analyst positioning, and relative market activity in recent weeks, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a higher probabilistic weighting to Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) over Heartland Express (HTLD). This reflects ODFL’s stronger alignment with upward price target revisions and positioning near range highs, though outcomes remain subject to broader freight and economic variables.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HTLD is a StrongBuy and ODFL is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HTLD’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileODFL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- HTLD’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ODFL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HTLD’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ODFL’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HTLD’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- ODFL’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HTLD (@Trucking) experienced а -14.36% price change this week, while ODFL (@Trucking) price change was -8.95% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucking industry was -9.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.51%, and the average quarterly price growth was +28.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
HTLD is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
ODFL is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucking (-9.63% weekly)The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.
| HTLD | ODFL | HTLD / ODFL | |
| Capitalization | 948M | 44.1B | 2% |
| EBITDA | 108M | 1.71B | 6% |
| Gain YTD | 35.895 | 35.654 | 101% |
| P/E Ratio | 52.32 | 40.80 | 128% |
| Revenue | 763M | 5.46B | 14% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 288M | - |
| Total Debt | 153M | 40M | 383% |
HTLD | ODFL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 57 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 62 Fair valued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 54 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HTLD's Valuation (62) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as ODFL (92). This means that HTLD’s stock grew similarly to ODFL’s over the last 12 months.
ODFL's Profit vs Risk Rating (54) in the Trucking industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HTLD (100). This means that ODFL’s stock grew somewhat faster than HTLD’s over the last 12 months.
ODFL's SMR Rating (41) in the Trucking industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HTLD (94). This means that ODFL’s stock grew somewhat faster than HTLD’s over the last 12 months.
ODFL's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as HTLD (54). This means that ODFL’s stock grew similarly to HTLD’s over the last 12 months.
HTLD's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as ODFL (20). This means that HTLD’s stock grew similarly to ODFL’s over the last 12 months.
| HTLD | ODFL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 61% | 21 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 52% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| MFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| URLGX | 2.99 | 0.04 | +1.36% |
| Columbia Select Large Cap Growth R | |||
| ACGLX | 25.07 | 0.26 | +1.05% |
| Invesco Growth and Income R | |||
| AMRMX | 64.81 | 0.03 | +0.05% |
| American Funds American Mutual A | |||
| GSXPX | 73.38 | -0.18 | -0.24% |
| Goldman Sachs Small Cp Val Insghts P | |||
| VYMVX | 16.89 | -0.04 | -0.24% |
| Voya MI Dynamic SMID Cap R | |||
HTLD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HTLD has been closely correlated with CVLG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HTLD jumps, then CVLG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HTLD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTLD | 100% | -3.93% | ||
| CVLG - HTLD | 80% Closely correlated | -3.61% | ||
| MRTN - HTLD | 78% Closely correlated | -0.07% | ||
| WERN - HTLD | 74% Closely correlated | +1.46% | ||
| SNDR - HTLD | 73% Closely correlated | +4.69% | ||
| ODFL - HTLD | 72% Closely correlated | -0.16% | ||
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ODFL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ODFL has been closely correlated with SAIA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ODFL jumps, then SAIA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ODFL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | 100% | -0.16% | ||
| SAIA - ODFL | 84% Closely correlated | -0.86% | ||
| ARCB - ODFL | 81% Closely correlated | +1.61% | ||
| TFII - ODFL | 76% Closely correlated | +0.54% | ||
| CVLG - ODFL | 73% Closely correlated | -3.61% | ||
| HTLD - ODFL | 72% Closely correlated | -3.93% | ||
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