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NDAQ vs SF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) vs. Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NDAQ is transitioning from a pure exchange operator into a diversified financial-technology and data platform, with recurring revenues now a majority of its mix.
- SF is a wealth-management-led investment bank and brokerage whose results are more directly tied to market activity, deal flow, and interest rates.
- Both companies delivered strong recent quarters, but NDAQ has shown steadier, subscription-like revenue growth, while SF posted sharper earnings swings.
- NDAQ raised its dividend and continues expanding its index franchise; SF faces recruiting-cost pressure and net interest income headwinds.
- Relative positioning differs by sector: NDAQ skews toward durable technology recurring revenue, while SF carries higher cyclical leverage to capital-markets activity.
Introduction
Investors weighing exchange and market-infrastructure businesses against diversified financial-services franchises often arrive at an instructive pairing: NDAQ (Nasdaq, Inc.) and SF (Stifel Financial Corp.). Although both operate at the center of capital markets, they generate revenue in very different ways. Nasdaq has evolved into a technology, data, and indexing company, while Stifel remains anchored in wealth management and investment banking. This stock comparison examines each firm's business model, recent performance, and market positioning to help traders and investors assess which profile may be better suited to current conditions. The analysis focuses on observable trends, relative performance, and catalysts rather than forward-looking speculation.
NDAQ Overview and Recent Performance
Nasdaq, Inc. operates three primary divisions: Capital Access Platforms (listings, data, and indexes), Financial Technology (regulatory, compliance, and market-infrastructure software), and Market Services (trading and exchanges). Over recent quarters, the company has emphasized recurring, subscription-based revenue, with annualized recurring revenue (ARR) growing roughly 11% to 12% and software-as-a-service (SaaS) revenue representing a rising share of the total. Recent results showed double-digit net revenue growth across all three divisions, powered by record index inflows, strong financial-crime and regulatory-technology demand, and a milestone quarter for listings—including the largest initial public offering (IPO) in exchange history.
Sentiment has been supported by expanding margins and steady capital returns. Nasdaq raised its quarterly dividend by about 15% and repurchased hundreds of millions of dollars in stock, while its index exchange-traded product (ETP) assets under management (AUM) crossed the $1 trillion mark for the first time. The company's strategic shift toward mission-critical technology has made its revenue mix less transaction-sensitive than a traditional exchange, a factor that has generally underpinned more consistent relative performance in recent market activity.
SF Overview and Recent Performance
Stifel Financial Corp. is a diversified financial-services holding company centered on Global Wealth Management, complemented by an Institutional Group providing investment banking, equities, and fixed-income services. Recent quarters reflected a sharp rebound in profitability: adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose well above prior-year levels, supported by record wealth-management revenue and a strong recovery in advisory and capital-raising activity. Total client assets climbed into the hundreds of billions of dollars, and the firm reported an annualized return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) near 25%, a widely watched measure of profitability for banks and brokers.
Momentum, however, has been more volatile than Nasdaq's. While the firm topped earnings estimates, the stock's year-to-date performance has lagged broader markets, and analyst views have been mixed, with some firms maintaining neutral ratings while others trimmed price targets. Key concerns include rising competition for financial-advisor recruitment, which pushes up compensation costs, softer net interest income (NII), and the cyclical sensitivity of investment-banking pipelines to geopolitical and rate uncertainty. These factors contribute to a less predictable earnings trajectory than Nasdaq's subscription-heavy model.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two names is structural. NDAQ has deliberately reduced its dependence on trading volumes by building out recurring data, analytics, and compliance-software businesses, giving it a more defensive, technology-like earnings profile. SF, by comparison, remains a traditional broker-dealer and investment bank whose results rise and fall with client activity, advisory completions, and the rate environment.
Growth drivers also diverge. Nasdaq's catalysts include index-licensing expansion, adoption of its financial-crime technology, and new product innovation in options and private-markets data. Stifel's drivers center on advisor recruitment, client-asset growth, and a recovery in mergers-and-acquisitions (M&A) and underwriting activity. In terms of risk factors, Nasdaq carries execution risk around integrating large acquisitions and managing elevated leverage, while Stifel faces competitive recruiting costs, litigation exposure, and sensitivity to interest-rate shifts.
On market positioning, Nasdaq offers steadier revenue visibility and higher margins, whereas Stifel offers lower valuation multiples and greater upside leverage to an improving capital-markets cycle. The trade-off is essentially one of stability versus cyclicality.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, revenue stability, and the durability of growth drivers, Tickeron's AI framework would likely favor NDAQ in the current environment. Nasdaq's recurring-revenue mix, expanding margins, and consistent beat-and-raise pattern present a steadier trend profile with fewer single-factor risks. SF has demonstrated strong earnings momentum, but its higher sensitivity to interest rates, recruiting costs, and deal-flow timing introduces greater variability that algorithmic models tend to discount. That said, the assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: if capital-markets activity accelerates and rate pressures ease, Stifel's cyclical leverage could narrow the gap. The verdict reflects a relative positioning call, not a categorical judgment on either company's long-term quality.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NDAQ is a Buy and SF is a Buy.
NDAQ's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NDAQ turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where NDAQ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NDAQ as a result. In 49 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
NDAQ moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NDAQ crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +2.86% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NDAQ advanced for three days, in 224 of 352 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 188 of 340 cases where NDAQ Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NDAQ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
NDAQ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. NDAQ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.988) is normal, around the industry mean (4.189). P/E Ratio (30.916) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.505). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.712) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.831) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
SF's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for SF moved out of oversold territory on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 25 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 20 of the 25 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 40 of 58 cases where SF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SF as a result. In 56 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SF just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where SF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +0.90% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SF advanced for three days, in 243 of 364 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
SF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for SF moved below the 200-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator for SF entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. SF’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.946) is normal, around the industry mean (3.199). P/E Ratio (11.587) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.873). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.833) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (8.657) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.116) is also within normal values, averaging (16.899).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
NDAQ | SF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 65 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 83 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 61 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 52 | 11 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 71 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 88 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SF's Valuation (83) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as NDAQ (88). This means that SF’s stock grew similarly to NDAQ’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Profit vs Risk Rating (19) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SF (61). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew somewhat faster than SF’s over the last 12 months.
SF's SMR Rating (11) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NDAQ (52). This means that SF’s stock grew somewhat faster than NDAQ’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Price Growth Rating (9) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SF (71). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew somewhat faster than SF’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's P/E Growth Rating (47) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SF (88). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew somewhat faster than SF’s over the last 12 months.
| NDAQ | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 2 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 2 days ago 76% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 26 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 51% | 9 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 2 days ago 66% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NDAQ’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while SF’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- NDAQ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- SF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NDAQ’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SF’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NDAQ’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SF’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
NDAQ (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а +2.50% price change this week, while SF (@Investment Banks/Brokers) price change was +2.23% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +4.20%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.31%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -6.35%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -19.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was -23.83%.
Reported Earning Dates
NDAQ is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
SF is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (+4.20% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-6.35% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
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SF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SF has been closely correlated with RJF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SF jumps, then RJF could also see price increases.
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