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IP vs SW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? International Paper Company (IP) vs. Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both IP and SW operate in the packaging and containers industry, focusing on fiber-based products amid cyclical sector dynamics.
- IP has delivered stronger year-to-date (YTD) performance at 16.28%, outpacing SW's 4.46% amid recent market activity.
- IP offers a higher dividend yield of 5.67% compared to SW's 4.52%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- Recent acquisition news for IP of North Pacific Paper Company for $360 million signals expansion efforts.
- Both companies are scheduled to report Q1 earnings on April 30, 2026, with SW facing expectations of a 31.5% earnings per share (EPS) decline.
- IP trades near its 52-week low with analyst price targets suggesting potential upside to around $42.70.
Introduction
This comparison examines IP and SW, two prominent players in the packaging sector, where demand for sustainable fiber-based solutions intersects with economic cycles. Investors tracking consumer cyclical stocks, dividend payers, or merger impacts may find value here, as both companies navigate sector headwinds like fluctuating raw material costs and e-commerce-driven demand shifts. Recent market positioning highlights contrasts in momentum and catalysts, offering insights into relative performance for portfolio allocation or trading decisions in a volatile environment.
IP Overview and Recent Performance
International Paper Company (IP) is a global leader in renewable fiber-based packaging, pulp, and paper products, serving industries from e-commerce to foodservice. In recent weeks, IP shares have traded around $32.65, near the 52-week low of $32.13, reflecting broader packaging sector pressures noted by analysts like Citigroup. YTD gains of 16.28% underscore resilience, supported by a pending $360 million acquisition of North Pacific Paper Company to bolster pulp capacity. High trading volume around 7-9 million shares daily signals interest, while a 5.67% dividend yield and beta of 1.10 (a measure of volatility relative to the market) attract value seekers despite negative trailing EPS of -$5.61. Sentiment has stabilized post-acquisition announcement, with Buy ratings and a $42.70 average price target implying upside potential.
SW Overview and Recent Performance
Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) emerged from the merger of Smurfit Kappa and Westrock, positioning it as a major sustainable packaging provider with a global footprint in corrugated containers and paperboard. Shares recently hovered at $40.04, down from a 52-week high of $52.65, contributing to modest YTD performance of 4.46%. Upcoming Q1 earnings on April 30, 2026, forecast a 31.5% EPS drop, tempering sentiment amid historical misses and post-merger integration challenges. A market cap of $21 billion, PE ratio (price-to-earnings) of 30.11, and 4.52% dividend yield reflect scale, though lower volume of 3-4 million shares indicates quieter trading. Recent underperformance versus peers highlights caution in a tough sector setup.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both IP and SW center on sustainable packaging business models, emphasizing corrugated boxes and pulp amid e-commerce growth, but SW's larger $21 billion market cap offers broader scale versus IP's $17.3 billion. Growth drivers diverge: IP pursues mergers and acquisitions (M&A) like its recent pulp deal, while SW focuses on post-merger synergies. Recent momentum favors IP with superior YTD returns and higher dividend appeal, though SW exhibits a more stable PE profile. Risk factors include sector cyclicality and commodity price swings, with IP's higher beta signaling greater volatility. Market sentiment leans positive for IP via analyst targets, contrasting SW's earnings caution.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI would currently favor IP over SW, driven by stronger trend consistency in YTD performance, a compelling acquisition catalyst, and analyst-implied upside potential amid sector pressures. While SW benefits from scale, its weaker momentum and anticipated EPS challenges suggest higher near-term uncertainty. This positioning reflects probabilistic edge based on recent observable factors.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is IP is a Buy and SW is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
IP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileSW’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- IP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- SW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
IP’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SW’s TA Score has 8 bullish TA indicator(s).
- IP’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
- SW’s TA Score: 8 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
IP (@Containers/Packaging) experienced а +1.37% price change this week, while SW (@Containers/Packaging) price change was +1.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Containers/Packaging industry was +0.43%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.20%.
Reported Earning Dates
IP is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
SW is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Containers/Packaging (+0.43% weekly)The containers/packing sector includes companies that manufacture containers (like plastic and aluminum food containers, glass bottles, metal cans, cardboard, storage and waste bags, giftwraps etc.) and provide packing services. Food-and-beverage and household products are major markets for this business. Several companies in this industry cater to international markets in addition to serving domestic customers. Consumer spending habits could potentially affect this industry’s performance. Some products, that use oil-based materials as inputs, are likely to see their costs of production get impacted (to some extent) by energy price movements. The ever-expanding e-commerce market has only supercharged the amount/frequency of goods shipped domestically and across borders, thereby creating ample potential opportunities for containers and packaging businesses. Ball Corporation, International Paper Company, Amcor Plc and Packaging Corporation of America are some of the largest U.S. companies in this industry.
| IP | SW | IP / SW | |
| Capitalization | 19.5B | 23.8B | 82% |
| EBITDA | 228M | 4.17B | 5% |
| Gain YTD | -4.004 | 19.770 | -20% |
| P/E Ratio | 45.84 | 63.04 | 73% |
| Revenue | 24.3B | 31.2B | 78% |
| Total Cash | 1.24B | 674M | 183% |
| Total Debt | 9.54B | 14.3B | 67% |
IP | SW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 46 | 44 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 9 Undervalued | 16 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 97 | 90 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 29 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
IP's Valuation (9) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as SW (16) in the null industry. This means that IP’s stock grew similarly to SW’s over the last 12 months.
IP's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as SW (100) in the null industry. This means that IP’s stock grew similarly to SW’s over the last 12 months.
SW's SMR Rating (90) in the null industry is in the same range as IP (97) in the Containers Or Packaging industry. This means that SW’s stock grew similarly to IP’s over the last 12 months.
SW's Price Growth Rating (42) in the null industry is in the same range as IP (46) in the Containers Or Packaging industry. This means that SW’s stock grew similarly to IP’s over the last 12 months.
IP's P/E Growth Rating (29) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as SW (32) in the null industry. This means that IP’s stock grew similarly to SW’s over the last 12 months.
| IP | SW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 62% | 7 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 58% |
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IP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, IP has been closely correlated with SW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if IP jumps, then SW could also see price increases.
SW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SW has been closely correlated with IP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SW jumps, then IP could also see price increases.