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PKG vs SW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) vs. Smurfit Westrock (SW) Stock Comparison
1) Key Takeaways
- Different scale, same industry: PKG is a North America–focused containerboard producer, while SW is a global packaging giant operating across roughly 40 countries.
- Relative momentum favors PKG: PKG has posted a roughly 16% year-to-date total return, outpacing SW's approximately 10% gain over the past year.
- PKG leans on volume and integration: record corrugated shipments and the Greif containerboard acquisition have supported growth.
- SW leans on restructuring and pricing: capacity cuts, synergy capture, and price increases anchor its margin-recovery story.
- Shared cost pressures: both companies are absorbing higher freight, energy, and fiber costs that compressed margins in recent quarters.
- Different profiles: PKG offers a steadier, higher-margin operation and a ~2.5% dividend yield, while SW presents a larger-scale turnaround with greater geographic diversification.
2) Introduction
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) and Smurfit Westrock (SW) sit at the heart of the same paper-based packaging industry, yet they represent very different investment propositions. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors weighing a steady, North American containerboard leader against a newly merged global heavyweight executing a multi-year margin expansion plan. With both names navigating the same inflationary cost environment, understanding their relative performance, market positioning, and catalysts helps clarify which profile better fits a given risk tolerance and time horizon in the current environment.
3) PKG Overview and Recent Performance
Packaging Corporation of America is the third-largest containerboard and corrugated packaging producer in the United States, commanding roughly 10% of the North American containerboard market. The company also manufactures uncoated freesheet paper through its Boise Paper business and employs about 16,800 people. Its market capitalization stands near $21 billion.
In recent market activity, PKG has shown resilience, trading around the mid-$230s with a 52-week range of roughly $191 to $260 and a year-to-date total return of about 16%. The stock's low beta (below 0.8) reflects its comparatively steady, defensive character. Recent quarters have been driven by record corrugated shipments and the integration of acquired Greif containerboard assets, which contributed ahead of expectations. Management also raised the annualized dividend 20% to $6.00 per share. However, higher freight costs, rising recycled fiber prices, and restructuring charges tied to the Wallula mill have pressured margins, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) easing year over year in the latest quarter despite stronger sales.
4) SW Overview and Recent Performance
Smurfit Westrock is one of the world's leading providers of paper-based packaging, with approximately 97,000 employees across 40 countries and annual revenue exceeding $30 billion. The company was formed through the combination of Smurfit Kappa and WestRock, creating a diversified platform spanning North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), Asia-Pacific (APAC), and Latin America (LATAM).
In recent months, SW shares have advanced roughly 10% over the past year, supported by a profit turnaround as the company swung back into the black on a year-over-year basis. Management is executing a value-over-volume strategy that includes closing nearly 600,000 tons of paper capacity and implementing containerboard and recycled-board price increases. Synergy capture from the merger is running ahead of internal expectations, and the company has set medium-term targets of $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) and a 19% margin by 2030. Still, near-term results have been tempered by North American corrugated volume softness and roughly $300 million in expected freight headwinds, which led management to trim its full-year EBITDA guidance.
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6) Head-to-Head Comparison
The most immediate contrast between these two names is scope versus focus. PKG concentrates on the North American market, where it benefits from disciplined containerboard supply management, record shipment volumes, and a premium valuation (a trailing price-to-earnings ratio near 30). Its growth is being driven by the Greif integration and price increases that are still rolling through the system. In contrast, SW spans three reportable regions, providing diversification but also exposing it to regional demand variability, such as recent softness in North American corrugated volumes.
On valuation and yield, the trade-off is clear. PKG trades at a richer multiple but offers a steadier cash-flow profile and a forward dividend yield near 2.5%. SW trades at a lower multiple and offers a larger potential margin-expansion runway from synergy capture and cost takeout, but with greater execution and integration risk. Both face identical external pressures—elevated freight and input costs—that are compressing margins and delaying the full benefit of announced price hikes.
In terms of market sentiment, analyst consensus on SW is characterized as a Strong Buy, while PKG carries a more mixed "Hold/Buy" profile with recent upgrades. Risk factors differ as well: PKG's are concentrated in U.S. cost inflation and pricing execution, whereas SW must manage a global restructuring, balance-sheet leverage, and the timing of its synergy targets.
7) Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely express a measured preference for PKG in the current environment. PKG's stronger relative momentum, steadier trading profile (reflected in its lower beta), record shipment volumes, and a recently raised dividend suggest more consistent trend quality than SW's larger-scale turnaround. While SW offers a potentially larger upside catalyst through margin recovery and synergy realization, its near-term earnings misses, regional volume softness, and heavier restructuring execution risk introduce greater uncertainty. The AI's stance would therefore tilt toward PKG for stability and trend reliability, while acknowledging SW's appeal for investors with a longer time horizon and higher risk tolerance.
8) Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PKG is a Hold and SW is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for PKG turns positive, indicating new upward trend
PKG saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 100 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 72 of the 100 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PKG just turned positive on October 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where PKG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
PKG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.11% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PKG advanced for three days, in 198 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PKG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
PKG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PKG entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. PKG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.568) is normal, around the industry mean (1.267). P/E Ratio (30.918) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.383). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.507) is also within normal values, averaging (1.023). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.033) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.168) is also within normal values, averaging (1.259).
SW's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for SW moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 20 of the 31 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 37 of 58 cases where SW's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SW as a result. In 49 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SW just turned positive on October 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where SW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Following a +1.52% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SW advanced for three days, in 98 of 166 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
SW moved below its 50-day moving average on September 24, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator for SW entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 56 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.206) is normal, around the industry mean (1.267). SW has a moderately high P/E Ratio (43.642) as compared to the industry average of (16.383). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.264) is also within normal values, averaging (1.023). Dividend Yield (0.044) settles around the average of (0.033) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.749) is also within normal values, averaging (1.259).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SW’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SW’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.
PKG | SW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 34 | 58 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 77 Overvalued | 56 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 57 | 88 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 29 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 95 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SW's Valuation (56) in the null industry is in the same range as PKG (77) in the Containers Or Packaging industry. This means that SW’s stock grew similarly to PKG’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's Profit vs Risk Rating (25) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is significantly better than the same rating for SW (100) in the null industry. This means that PKG’s stock grew significantly faster than SW’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's SMR Rating (57) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as SW (88) in the null industry. This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to SW’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's Price Growth Rating (29) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as SW (58) in the null industry. This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to SW’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is significantly better than the same rating for SW (95) in the null industry. This means that PKG’s stock grew significantly faster than SW’s over the last 12 months.
| PKG | SW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 59% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 45% | 4 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 65% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PKG’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while SW’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- PKG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- SW’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PKG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SW’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PKG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SW’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
PKG (@Containers/Packaging) experienced а +3.93% price change this week, while SW (@Containers/Packaging) price change was +1.74% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Containers/Packaging industry was +2.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.53%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.41%.
Reported Earning Dates
PKG is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
SW is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Containers/Packaging (+2.63% weekly)The containers/packing sector includes companies that manufacture containers (like plastic and aluminum food containers, glass bottles, metal cans, cardboard, storage and waste bags, giftwraps etc.) and provide packing services. Food-and-beverage and household products are major markets for this business. Several companies in this industry cater to international markets in addition to serving domestic customers. Consumer spending habits could potentially affect this industry’s performance. Some products, that use oil-based materials as inputs, are likely to see their costs of production get impacted (to some extent) by energy price movements. The ever-expanding e-commerce market has only supercharged the amount/frequency of goods shipped domestically and across borders, thereby creating ample potential opportunities for containers and packaging businesses. Ball Corporation, International Paper Company, Amcor Plc and Packaging Corporation of America are some of the largest U.S. companies in this industry.
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PKG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PKG has been closely correlated with SW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PKG jumps, then SW could also see price increases.