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PKG vs SW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) vs. Smurfit Westrock (SW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both PKG and SW are leading players in the packaging sector, with similar market capitalizations around $19-21 billion, benefiting from e-commerce and sustainable packaging trends.
- PKG reported strong Q1 2026 results, with adjusted EPS of $2.40 exceeding estimates, driving positive sentiment in recent weeks.
- SW faces upcoming Q1 earnings on April 30, 2026, with analysts anticipating a 31.5% EPS decline year-over-year.
- PKG shows stronger one-year returns at approximately 18%, compared to SW's 2.5%.
- Year-to-date, SW edges out with 4.5% gains versus PKG's 3.7%, amid sector volatility.
- Tickeron AI models currently lean toward PKG for its earnings momentum and stability.
Introduction
In the competitive packaging industry, PKG and SW stand out as key providers of corrugated containers and paper-based solutions. This stock comparison analyzes their recent market positioning, performance metrics, and sector dynamics. Traders seeking momentum plays and long-term investors focused on industrial stability may find value in evaluating relative strength amid fluctuating demand from e-commerce and consumer goods. With both stocks navigating broader economic pressures, understanding their contrasts aids informed decision-making in today's market environment.
PKG Overview and Recent Performance
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) specializes in containerboard and corrugated packaging products, serving e-commerce, food, and beverage sectors primarily in North America. In recent market activity, PKG shares have traded around $212, reflecting a year-to-date gain of 3.7% and a robust one-year return of 17.8%. The company's Q1 2026 earnings showcased revenue of $2.37 billion, up 10.6% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.40 surpassing expectations due to higher prices and operational efficiencies. Sentiment has been bolstered by a quarterly dividend increase to $1.25 per share, signaling confidence amid stable demand. However, recent weeks saw minor pullbacks amid sector-wide pressures on input costs.
SW Overview and Recent Performance
Smurfit Westrock (SW) is a global leader in sustainable paper-based packaging, offering containerboard, corrugated boxes, and consumer packaging across North America, Europe, and beyond. Shares recently hovered near $40, with year-to-date performance at 4.5% and a one-year return of 2.5%. Trading within a 52-week range of $32.73 to $52.65, the stock reflects resilience post-merger integration. Recent sentiment is tempered by anticipation for Q1 2026 earnings on April 30, where a 31.5% EPS drop is forecasted amid softer volumes, though a modest revenue uptick is expected. A forward dividend yield of 4.5% supports income-focused positioning, influenced by global supply chain dynamics.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
PKG and SW operate in the containers and packaging industry, with PKG focused on North American containerboard and SW offering broader global exposure including consumer packaging. Growth drivers for PKG include e-commerce demand and pricing power, evident in recent margin expansion, while SW leverages merger synergies for scale but contends with integration risks. Recent momentum favors PKG's earnings beat versus SW's anticipated shortfall. Risk factors differ: PKG faces domestic cyclicality (P/E around 21 implied), SW currency and geopolitical exposures (P/E 30 TTM). Market sentiment tilts toward PKG for stability, though SW's higher yield appeals to dividend seekers.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models currently favor PKG over SW, citing superior trend consistency from recent earnings strength, higher one-year returns, and resilient packaging segment positioning. While SW offers global diversification and yield, its pending earnings introduce near-term uncertainty. This probabilistic edge for PKG aligns with observable momentum in recent market activity.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PKG is a Hold and SW is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PKG’s FA Score shows that 4 FA rating(s) are green whileSW’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- PKG’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- SW’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PKG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SW’s TA Score has 8 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PKG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- SW’s TA Score: 8 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
PKG (@Containers/Packaging) experienced а +2.73% price change this week, while SW (@Containers/Packaging) price change was +3.54% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Containers/Packaging industry was +2.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +14.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.16%.
Reported Earning Dates
PKG is expected to report earnings on Jul 27, 2026.
SW is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Containers/Packaging (+2.77% weekly)The containers/packing sector includes companies that manufacture containers (like plastic and aluminum food containers, glass bottles, metal cans, cardboard, storage and waste bags, giftwraps etc.) and provide packing services. Food-and-beverage and household products are major markets for this business. Several companies in this industry cater to international markets in addition to serving domestic customers. Consumer spending habits could potentially affect this industry’s performance. Some products, that use oil-based materials as inputs, are likely to see their costs of production get impacted (to some extent) by energy price movements. The ever-expanding e-commerce market has only supercharged the amount/frequency of goods shipped domestically and across borders, thereby creating ample potential opportunities for containers and packaging businesses. Ball Corporation, International Paper Company, Amcor Plc and Packaging Corporation of America are some of the largest U.S. companies in this industry.
| PKG | SW | PKG / SW | |
| Capitalization | 20.4B | 23.2B | 88% |
| EBITDA | 1.82B | 4.17B | 44% |
| Gain YTD | 12.442 | 16.630 | 75% |
| P/E Ratio | 27.83 | 61.39 | 45% |
| Revenue | 9.22B | 31.2B | 30% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 674M | - |
| Total Debt | 4.37B | 14.3B | 31% |
PKG | SW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 45 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 32 Undervalued | 15 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 90 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 24 | 35 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 14 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SW's Valuation (15) in the null industry is in the same range as PKG (32) in the Containers Or Packaging industry. This means that SW’s stock grew similarly to PKG’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's Profit vs Risk Rating (33) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is significantly better than the same rating for SW (100) in the null industry. This means that PKG’s stock grew significantly faster than SW’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's SMR Rating (54) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SW (90) in the null industry. This means that PKG’s stock grew somewhat faster than SW’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's Price Growth Rating (20) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as SW (42) in the null industry. This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to SW’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's P/E Growth Rating (24) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as SW (35) in the null industry. This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to SW’s over the last 12 months.
| PKG | SW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 62% | 6 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 46% | 4 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 58% |
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SW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SW has been closely correlated with IP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SW jumps, then IP could also see price increases.