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AMCR vs SW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Amcor plc (AMCR) vs. Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both companies are global packaging leaders, but they operate in different niches: AMCR (Amcor plc) focuses on flexible and rigid consumer packaging, while SW (Smurfit Westrock plc) specializes in paper-based containerboard and corrugated packaging.
- Amcor's recent results have been driven by its Berry Global integration, with fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) up roughly 13% and about $285 million in synergies realized.
- Smurfit Westrock posted stable revenue but saw its most recent quarterly EPS miss estimates on higher freight and energy costs, with full-year adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) guided to $4.9–$5.1 billion.
- Over the past year, AMCR has underperformed (down roughly 12.5%), while SW gained about 10% before a recent pullback in its share price.
- Both names face input-cost inflation and supply-chain pressures, but their risk profiles differ by business model, leverage, and paper-cycle exposure.
Introduction
Packaging stocks are often viewed as defensive holdings with steady demand, yet the two companies compared here are executing very different strategies. Amcor plc and Smurfit Westrock plc are both large-cap names within the packaging industry, but they serve distinct product categories and have pursued contrasting paths to scale in recent years. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing relative performance, growth drivers, and risk across the sector. Income-oriented investors may note that both companies pay dividends, while growth-focused traders may be more interested in momentum, integration progress, and market positioning. Understanding how AMCR and SW differ can help clarify which profile better fits current market conditions.
AMCR Overview and Recent Performance
Amcor plc is one of the world's largest providers of flexible and rigid packaging, serving food, beverage, healthcare, and consumer goods customers. Its recent market activity has been shaped by the transformative combination with Berry Global, which closed in April 2025 and roughly doubled the company's revenue base. In its most recent fiscal quarters, AMCR reported sharply higher sales and adjusted EBITDA driven by acquired revenue and accelerating synergy capture, while organic volumes remained modestly negative to slightly positive. Management has delivered synergies ahead of its initial targets and advanced a portfolio-optimization program involving several divestitures.
Sentiment has been tempered by several factors. The company completed a 1-for-5 reverse stock split in January 2026, adjusted its fiscal 2026 guidance lower on free-cash-flow expectations tied to higher inventory levels, and flagged input-cost inflation and supply-chain considerations linked to the Middle East conflict. Amcor maintains a quarterly dividend and carries elevated net debt and leverage following the Berry transaction, which represents a key watch item for investors.
SW Overview and Recent Performance
Smurfit Westrock plc was formed through the 2024 combination of Smurfit Kappa and WestRock, creating a leading global producer of paper-based packaging, including containerboard, corrugated boxes, and paperboard. Its recent performance has been mixed. In its latest quarter, SW reported a modest year-over-year revenue increase but missed adjusted EPS estimates, with profitability pressured by higher freight and energy costs. North American corrugated volumes declined as the company prioritized value over volume, while European and Latin American segments showed more resilience.
Management has guided full-year adjusted EBITDA to a range of $4.9–$5.1 billion and emphasized pricing actions that are expected to flow through earnings into 2027. The company has also progressed on cost reductions and asset optimization, including mill closures. After gaining about 10% over the past year, SW's shares have pulled back in recent weeks, reflecting the earnings miss and ongoing cost headwinds. Analysts, however, maintain a broadly constructive view, with an average price target above recent trading levels.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two companies is their product mix. Amcor operates in flexible and rigid plastic packaging, which ties its demand more directly to consumer staples, beverages, and healthcare. Smurfit Westrock operates in paper-based containerboard and corrugated packaging, making it more sensitive to industrial and e-commerce shipping volumes and to the cyclical pricing of paper grades.
Growth drivers also differ. Amcor's near-term story is integration-led: the Berry acquisition has lifted revenue and margins through synergies, while organic volume growth remains limited. Smurfit Westrock's story is more tied to price recovery and operational turnaround, particularly in North America, where it has moved converting operations toward profitability and announced price increases that are not yet reflected in results.
On risk, both companies face input-cost inflation and freight pressures, partly linked to Middle East supply disruptions. Amcor carries higher leverage from its acquisition, while Smurfit Westrock contends with freight and energy cost increases and softer North American volumes. From a momentum standpoint, AMCR has lagged over the past year, whereas SW has outperformed before its recent pullback.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward Smurfit Westrock at present. SW has demonstrated stronger relative performance over the past year, maintains a broadly constructive analyst consensus, and benefits from visible pricing catalysts expected to support 2027 earnings, even as near-term cost inflation weighs on results. Amcor, by contrast, offers a larger, more diversified revenue base and a clear synergy runway, but its recent underperformance, elevated leverage, and softer organic volumes introduce more uncertainty. This is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive call, and relative positioning could shift as cost trends and integration milestones evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMCR is a StrongBuy and SW is a Hold.
AMCR in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026
AMCR moved above its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 28 of 43 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AMCR's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AMCR as a result. In 57 of 97 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AMCR just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where AMCR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 44%.
Following a +0.48% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMCR advanced for three days, in 126 of 285 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 44%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMCR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
AMCR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AMCR entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AMCR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 56 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.724) is normal, around the industry mean (1.179). P/E Ratio (18.389) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.274). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.991) is also within normal values, averaging (1.023). AMCR has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.059) as compared to the industry average of (0.034). P/S Ratio (0.828) is also within normal values, averaging (1.259).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AMCR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
SW in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 24, 2026
SW moved below its 50-day moving average on September 24, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 32 of 41 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SW as a result. In 61 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SW turned negative on October 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 65%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SW's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 13 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SW advanced for three days, in 97 of 163 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 57 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.188) is normal, around the industry mean (1.179). SW has a moderately high P/E Ratio (42.989) as compared to the industry average of (16.274). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.264) is also within normal values, averaging (1.023). Dividend Yield (0.044) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.749) is also within normal values, averaging (1.259).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SW’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
AMCR | SW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 54 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 56 Fair valued | 57 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 73 | 88 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 75 | 95 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AMCR's Valuation (56) in the null industry is in the same range as SW (57). This means that AMCR’s stock grew similarly to SW’s over the last 12 months.
AMCR's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the null industry is in the same range as SW (100). This means that AMCR’s stock grew similarly to SW’s over the last 12 months.
AMCR's SMR Rating (73) in the null industry is in the same range as SW (88). This means that AMCR’s stock grew similarly to SW’s over the last 12 months.
AMCR's Price Growth Rating (50) in the null industry is in the same range as SW (50). This means that AMCR’s stock grew similarly to SW’s over the last 12 months.
AMCR's P/E Growth Rating (75) in the null industry is in the same range as SW (95). This means that AMCR’s stock grew similarly to SW’s over the last 12 months.
| AMCR | SW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 28 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMCR’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while SW’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AMCR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- SW’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMCR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SW’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMCR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SW’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AMCR (@Containers/Packaging) experienced а +5.70% price change this week, while SW (@Containers/Packaging) price change was -0.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Containers/Packaging industry was +2.30%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.69%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.14%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMCR is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
SW is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Containers/Packaging (+2.30% weekly)The containers/packing sector includes companies that manufacture containers (like plastic and aluminum food containers, glass bottles, metal cans, cardboard, storage and waste bags, giftwraps etc.) and provide packing services. Food-and-beverage and household products are major markets for this business. Several companies in this industry cater to international markets in addition to serving domestic customers. Consumer spending habits could potentially affect this industry’s performance. Some products, that use oil-based materials as inputs, are likely to see their costs of production get impacted (to some extent) by energy price movements. The ever-expanding e-commerce market has only supercharged the amount/frequency of goods shipped domestically and across borders, thereby creating ample potential opportunities for containers and packaging businesses. Ball Corporation, International Paper Company, Amcor Plc and Packaging Corporation of America are some of the largest U.S. companies in this industry.
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AMCR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AMCR has been closely correlated with SW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AMCR jumps, then SW could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AMCR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMCR | 100% | +0.23% | ||
| SW - AMCR | 67% Closely correlated | -0.78% | ||
| AVY - AMCR | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.14% | ||
| GEF - AMCR | 61% Loosely correlated | -1.60% | ||
| CCK - AMCR | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.65% | ||
| SLGN - AMCR | 60% Loosely correlated | +5.98% | ||
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