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ITUB vs MFG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB) vs. Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ITUB trades at a lower trailing P/E ratio of 10.04 compared to MFG's 16.12, suggesting better relative valuation on earnings.
- Both stocks show strong longer-term gains, with MFG leading at 70% one-year return versus ITUB's 54%, but ITUB exhibits lower volatility (beta 0.22 vs. 0.40).
- ITUB reported robust Q1 2026 earnings with net income up 10% year-over-year to BRL 12.3 billion, highlighting efficiency gains and stable asset quality.
- MFG offers a higher forward dividend yield of 2.26% compared to ITUB's 1.26%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- Market caps are comparable at ~$92B for ITUB and ~$106B for MFG, with both benefiting from regional banking strength in Brazil and Japan.
- Recent market activity shows both facing short-term pullbacks amid global financial sector rotation, but long-term trends favor emerging market exposure via ITUB.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines ITUB and MFG, two leading regional banks from Brazil and Japan, respectively. Both operate in the Financial Services sector, providing retail, wholesale, and investment banking amid divergent economic backdrops: Brazil's growth amid policy shifts and Japan's post-deflation recovery. Traders seeking value in emerging vs. developed markets, or investors eyeing dividend stability and growth potential, will find this analysis relevant for assessing relative performance, valuation, and market positioning in the current environment of moderating rates and sector rotation.
ITUB Overview and Recent Performance
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A., Brazil's largest private bank, offers comprehensive financial services including loans, cards, insurance, and investment products through retail, wholesale, and market segments. Headquartered in São Paulo, it serves diverse clients from individuals to corporations. In recent market activity, ITUB shares have navigated volatility, with YTD gains of 17.48% and a one-year return of 54.35%, outperforming Brazil's IBOVESPA benchmark. Q1 2026 results drove positive sentiment, posting managerial net income of BRL 12.3 billion (up 10% YoY), a record-low efficiency ratio of 34.9% in Brazil, and ROE (return on equity) of 24.8%. Credit portfolio growth and stable asset quality supported performance, though currency fluctuations and higher expenses tempered USD gains. Lower beta (0.22) reflects resilience, influenced by Selic rate dynamics and domestic expansion.
MFG Overview and Recent Performance
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., one of Japan's megabanks, delivers banking, securities, trust, and asset management services globally via segments like retail & business banking, corporate & investment banking, and global markets. Based in Tokyo, it focuses on deposits, loans, M&A advisory, and risk hedging for corporate and high-net-worth clients. Recent weeks saw MFG shares experience pressure from technical selling, with YTD return at 18.07% and one-year surge of 70.39%, trailing Nikkei 225 less robustly over three years but strong annually. Awards in U.S. banking and overseas expansion bolstered sentiment, amid stable profitability and share buybacks. Higher beta (0.40) signals sensitivity to global rates and yen movements, with upcoming earnings on May 15 anticipated to highlight NII (net interest income) growth.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ITUB and MFG share regional banking models but diverge in growth drivers and risks. ITUB's Brazil-centric retail focus drives higher ROE (24.8%) via credit expansion (5.5-9.5% guided) and digital efficiency, contrasting MFG's corporate/investment emphasis with global M&A strength. Valuation favors ITUB (trailing P/E 10 vs. 16, forward 9.7 vs. 12.8), though MFG edges on dividend yield (2.26% vs. 1.26%) and market cap ($106B vs. $92B). Momentum tilts to MFG over one year (70% vs. 54%), but ITUB's lower beta suits stability seekers amid EM (emerging markets) volatility vs. Japan's yield curve risks. Sentiment reflects ITUB's earnings beat and MFG's U.S. accolades, balancing trade-offs in sector exposure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward ITUB due to superior trend consistency, lower valuation multiples, recent earnings momentum, and high ROE amid Brazil's growth trajectory. While MFG offers stronger one-year momentum and dividends, ITUB's stability and catalysts like credit expansion position it probabilistically better for near-term outperformance in a rate-normalizing environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ITUB is a StrongBuy and MFG is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ITUB’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileMFG’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- ITUB’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- MFG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ITUB’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MFG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ITUB’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MFG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ITUB (@Regional Banks) experienced а +0.80% price change this week, while MFG (@Regional Banks) price change was -0.82% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +1.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.64%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.60%.
Reported Earning Dates
ITUB is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
MFG is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+1.31% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| ITUB | MFG | ITUB / MFG | |
| Capitalization | 89.7B | 118B | 76% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 13.327 | 32.240 | 41% |
| P/E Ratio | 9.93 | 16.28 | 61% |
| Revenue | 164B | 4.32T | 4% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | N/A | 26.18T | - |
ITUB | MFG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 13 Undervalued | 80 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 13 | 14 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 4 | 1 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 23 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ITUB's Valuation (13) in the Major Banks industry is significantly better than the same rating for MFG (80). This means that ITUB’s stock grew significantly faster than MFG’s over the last 12 months.
ITUB's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as MFG (14). This means that ITUB’s stock grew similarly to MFG’s over the last 12 months.
MFG's SMR Rating (1) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as ITUB (4). This means that MFG’s stock grew similarly to ITUB’s over the last 12 months.
MFG's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as ITUB (46). This means that MFG’s stock grew similarly to ITUB’s over the last 12 months.
MFG's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as ITUB (47). This means that MFG’s stock grew similarly to ITUB’s over the last 12 months.
| ITUB | MFG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 44% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 45% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 2 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 6 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 62% | 1 day ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 69% |
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ITUB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ITUB has been closely correlated with BBD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ITUB jumps, then BBD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ITUB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITUB | 100% | +0.13% | ||
| BBD - ITUB | 83% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| BSBR - ITUB | 81% Closely correlated | -0.94% | ||
| INTR - ITUB | 67% Closely correlated | -0.93% | ||
| BSAC - ITUB | 65% Loosely correlated | -1.92% | ||
| BCH - ITUB | 62% Loosely correlated | -2.20% | ||
More | ||||
MFG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MFG has been loosely correlated with LYG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 50% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MFG jumps, then LYG could also see price increases.