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MTH vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) vs. Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Meritage Homes (MTH) shows modest price appreciation and improving earnings momentum, while Toll Brothers (TOL) trades at a higher valuation but benefits from luxury‑home demand.
- Both companies operate in the residential construction sector, but MTH focuses on entry‑level and move‑up markets, whereas TOL targets the premium segment.
- Recent market sentiment favors MTH due to its lower price‑to‑earnings (P/E) multiple and stronger cash flow generation.
- TOL’s larger balance sheet and diversified ancillary services (mortgage, title, smart‑home tech) provide a defensive cushion in a tightening credit environment.
- AI‑driven trading bots on Tickeron currently rank MTH slightly higher for short‑term trend consistency, while TOL is highlighted for longer‑term stability.
Introduction
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) and Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) are two of the most actively watched home‑building stocks on U.S. exchanges. Both have been featured in recent AI‑bot rankings on Tickeron, making a side‑by‑side comparison valuable for traders who rely on algorithmic signals as well as for fundamental investors assessing exposure to the housing cycle. This article breaks down recent performance, sector dynamics, and risk factors to help market participants gauge which stock better aligns with their strategy in the current environment.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) designs and builds single‑family attached and detached homes across 12 states, primarily serving first‑time and move‑up buyers. The company reported FY2025 revenue of roughly $5.6 billion and a trailing twelve‑month (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) of $5.48, giving it a P/E ratio near 12.7—well below the industry average. Over the recent weeks, MTH’s share price has risen about 1 % after a brief pullback, supported by stronger-than‑expected home‑sales volumes in the Sun Belt and an uptick in its mortgage‑services revenue. Analyst sentiment has shifted modestly positive, with several houses raising price targets after the company disclosed a $138 million free‑cash‑flow increase in its latest quarter. The stock’s beta of 1.43 suggests it moves somewhat more than the broader market, but the low debt‑to‑equity ratio (≈36 %) and a current ratio above 8 provide a solid liquidity cushion.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) operates in the luxury home segment, offering high‑end detached homes, townhouses, and multifamily apartments. Its ancillary businesses include mortgage financing, title services, and smart‑home technology integration. TOL posted FY2025 revenue of $11.3 billion with a TTM EPS of $14.00, translating to a P/E of about 10.1—still higher than MTH’s but reflective of premium pricing power. In the past month, the stock has slipped roughly 0.8 % after a modest earnings miss (revenue up 5 % YoY but net income growth lagging). However, the company’s dividend yield of 0.74 % and a dividend payout ratio under 30 % reinforce its appeal to income‑focused investors. TOL’s balance sheet shows a debt‑to‑equity of 32 % and a cash‑to‑debt ratio near 0.45, indicating manageable leverage despite higher absolute debt levels compared with MTH.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page showcases a curated set of algorithmic trading bots that have demonstrated consistent outperformance across thousands of tickers. While the platform hosts hundreds of bots, only those with strong risk‑adjusted returns, robust draw‑down control, and relevance to current market conditions appear in the “Trending” section. Bots typically trade on timeframes ranging from intraday (5‑minute) to multi‑week (weekly) horizons, employing strategies such as momentum, mean‑reversion, and statistical arbitrage. Performance metrics often include a Sharpe ratio above 1.2 and win‑rates exceeding 55 %. Investors can explore each bot’s back‑tested results, live‑trade statistics, and the specific tickers they target—making it easier to align automated strategies with personal risk tolerance.
Head-to-Head Comparison
- Business Model: MTH focuses on volume‑driven entry‑level homes; TOL concentrates on premium, high‑margin properties and ancillary services.
- Growth Drivers: MTH benefits from lower‑priced inventory and expanding markets in the Sun Belt; TOL leverages luxury‑buyer demand and cross‑selling of mortgage & title services.
- Valuation: MTH trades at a lower P/E and price‑to‑sales multiple, indicating cheaper relative valuation; TOL’s higher multiples reflect premium pricing power.
- Liquidity & Balance Sheet: MTH has higher current ratio and lower leverage; TOL carries more debt but offsets it with larger cash flow and diversified revenue streams.
- Risk Factors: MTH is more sensitive to interest‑rate hikes that affect first‑time buyer financing; TOL faces exposure to luxury‑buyer sentiment and construction‑cost inflation.
- Market Sentiment: Recent analyst upgrades have nudged MTH upward, while TOL’s slight earnings miss triggered modest downside pressure, though its dividend and brand strength maintain a stable investor base.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on the latest trend‑consistency scores and risk‑adjusted performance data from Tickeron’s AI bots, the platform presently leans slightly toward Meritage Homes (MTH) for short‑to‑medium‑term opportunities. The verdict reflects MTH’s lower valuation, improving cash flow, and resilient demand in its target market. However, the AI also acknowledges Toll Brothers (TOL) as a solid longer‑term play given its premium positioning and diversified service offerings. Traders should weigh these probabilistic insights against their own risk tolerance and investment horizon.
Disclaimer
“The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.” Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTH is a StrongBuy and TOL is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTH’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MTH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTH’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTH’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MTH (@Homebuilding) experienced а +6.83% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +8.42% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +3.01%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +16.66%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTH is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+3.01% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| MTH | TOL | MTH / TOL | |
| Capitalization | 4.86B | 13.9B | 35% |
| EBITDA | 522M | 1.7B | 31% |
| Gain YTD | 11.626 | 10.384 | 112% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.30 | 11.30 | 118% |
| Revenue | 5.62B | 11B | 51% |
| Total Cash | 767M | 1.11B | 69% |
| Total Debt | 1.9B | 2.92B | 65% |
MTH | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 12 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 7 Undervalued | 68 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 69 | 41 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 56 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (7) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TOL (68). This means that MTH’s stock grew somewhat faster than TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (41) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (69). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (56) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (80). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (45). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (24). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| MTH | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 20 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 71% | 8 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 65% |
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MTH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTH has been closely correlated with KBH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTH jumps, then KBH could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.