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MTH vs TOL
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTH is a Hold and TOL is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for MTH turns negative, indicating new downward trend
MTH saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 81 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 61 of the 81 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MTH turned negative on October 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
The 50-day moving average for MTH moved below the 200-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator for MTH entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MTH's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 23 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTH advanced for three days, in 206 of 294 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
MTH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 43 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.762) is normal, around the industry mean (1.647). P/E Ratio (12.251) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.287). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.018) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.814) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. MTH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
TOL's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for TOL entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 162 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 116 of the 162 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TOL as a result. In 59 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The 50-day moving average for TOL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TOL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 40 of 56 cases where TOL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +1.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 225 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
TOL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.444) is normal, around the industry mean (1.647). P/E Ratio (10.696) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.287). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.018) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
MTH | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 81 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 43 Fair valued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 46 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 72 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 29 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (43) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (69). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (46) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MTH (79). This means that TOL’s stock grew somewhat faster than MTH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (58) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (80). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (72). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (29). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| MTH | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 6 days ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 70% | 17 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 70% | 7 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 72% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTH’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MTH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTH’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MTH (@Homebuilding) experienced а +0.61% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +0.43% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -2.09%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.35%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.56%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTH is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-2.09% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.