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MTH vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Meritage Homes (MTH) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MTH and TOL are both U.S. homebuilders, but they serve very different buyers: Meritage targets entry-level and first move-up homes in the Sun Belt, while Toll Brothers focuses on the luxury segment.
- Recent momentum has diverged sharply, with TOL holding up on resilient luxury demand while MTH has faced revenue declines, rising incentives, and withdrawn guidance.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: TOL — the AI favors Toll Brothers on stronger trend consistency, order growth, and relative stability versus MTH.
- Analyst sentiment is more constructive on TOL, which carries a broad "Buy" consensus and meaningful upside targets, while MTH has seen a wave of price-target cuts.
- For more detail, explore MTH Major News and MTH Today's Price Move, or TOL Major News and TOL Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI trading systems are positioning across these and other tickers, visit Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Homebuilder stocks sit at the center of one of the most closely watched macro debates of the current cycle: how do elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressures reshape demand across price tiers? Comparing MTH and TOL offers a clean lens on that question, because the two companies occupy opposite ends of the housing market. This stock comparison is relevant for investors who want to understand how market positioning, buyer demographics, and relative performance can drive divergent outcomes even within the same sector.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) is among the largest U.S. homebuilders focused on entry-level and first move-up buyers, operating across Sun Belt and Southeastern states such as Texas, Florida, Arizona, and the Carolinas. The company's strategy centers on energy-efficient, spec-built (built before sale) homes designed for quicker move-in timelines.
In recent weeks, MTH has faced meaningful headwinds. Its most recent quarterly results showed a double-digit year-over-year revenue decline and an earnings per share (EPS) figure that came in slightly below consensus, while management withdrew its prior guidance across key metrics. Backlog — the value of contracted homes not yet delivered — has also been contracting. Analysts have responded with a series of price-target reductions, and the stock's relative performance versus the broader market and the homebuilding group has weakened. Elevated incentives, softer consumer confidence, and margin compression have all weighed on sentiment.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is a leading luxury homebuilder serving move-up and affluent buyers, with a footprint spanning some of the highest-priced housing markets in the country. Its average selling price per home runs well above most competitors, reflecting its premium product mix.
In recent quarters, TOL has demonstrated relative resilience. The company has continued to beat earnings and revenue estimates, supported by higher delivered pricing that has offset lower unit volumes. Net signed contracts (new orders) have grown on a year-over-year basis, and incentives have remained stable for several consecutive quarters — a sign of disciplined demand among its financially stronger buyer base. Although margins have softened and gross margin has declined from prior-year levels, the company has maintained a conservative balance sheet and continued returning capital to shareholders through buybacks and dividend increases. This stability has helped TOL outperform its entry-level-focused peers in recent market activity.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two companies is a matter of business model and buyer demographics. MTH relies on volume-driven, entry-level sales, which are more sensitive to mortgage-rate affordability and first-time buyer confidence. TOL, by contrast, depends less on financing costs because its affluent customers more frequently pay cash or carry larger down payments.
This difference shows up in recent momentum. MTH has experienced declining revenue, shrinking backlog, and margin pressure, prompting management to pull guidance and analysts to cut targets. TOL has grown new orders, kept incentives steady, and beaten estimates, even as its margins softened.
On risk factors, MTH carries greater exposure to affordability headwinds and incentive escalation, while TOL faces concentration risk in the luxury niche and geographic exposure to higher-priced coastal and select growth markets. In market sentiment, the divergence is notable: TOL holds a predominantly "Buy" consensus with substantial upside targets, whereas MTH has seen downgrades and target reductions amid a "Strong Sell" ranking from some research providers.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would currently favor TOL over MTH. The rationale rests on trend consistency and relative positioning: TOL has sustained order growth, stable incentive levels, and earnings beats during a challenging housing environment, suggesting more dependable momentum. MTH, by contrast, shows deteriorating revenue, contracting backlog, withdrawn guidance, and negative analyst revisions — signals that generally suggest weaker trend stability. While both companies face sector-wide margin pressure, the AI's probabilistic assessment leans toward TOL as the comparatively stronger candidate in the current market environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTH is a StrongBuy and TOL is a Buy.
MTH in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026
The 10-day moving average for MTH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MTH as a result. In 59 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
MTH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +8.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTH advanced for three days, in 200 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 132 of 206 cases where MTH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MTH moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 29 of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MTH turned negative on November 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 41 of the 54 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 76%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
MTH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 45 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.877) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (14.089) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.814) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
TOL in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for TOL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TOL as a result. In 64 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 217 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 188 of 269 cases where TOL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TOL moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TOL turned negative on November 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 56 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 56 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.648) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (12.205) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
MTH | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 69 | 78 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 45 Fair valued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 72 | 37 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (45) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (70). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (37) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MTH (72). This means that TOL’s stock grew somewhat faster than MTH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (58) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (80). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (48). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (19). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| MTH | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 69% | 13 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 70% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTH’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MTH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTH’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTH’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MTH (@Homebuilding) experienced а -5.26% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was -3.09% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -4.19%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.00%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.62%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTH is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 07, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-4.19% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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MTH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTH has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTH jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
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