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KEY vs UCB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KeyCorp (KEY) vs. United Community Banks (UCB) Stock Comparison
1) Key Takeaways
- Both KEY and UCB are U.S. regional banks reporting strong earnings, but they differ sharply in scale, geography, and business mix.
- KEY (KeyCorp) is a diversified ~$23 billion-market-cap lender with a meaningful investment banking and wealth-management franchise; UCB (United Community Banks) is a ~$4 billion-market-cap Southeast-focused community bank.
- KeyCorp's net interest margin (NIM) is expanding rapidly but sits below UCB's, while UCB carries a notably higher margin and stronger capital ratios.
- KeyCorp faces activist investor pressure over capital deployment; UCB is repurchasing shares while growing loans and deposits organically.
- The two stocks offer a contrast between a larger, fee-driven franchise and a smaller, higher-margin community banking model.
2) Introduction
Investors evaluating regional banks often compare companies of very different sizes and strategies, and the pairing of KEY and UCB illustrates that dynamic well. This stock comparison examines two publicly traded lenders that both reported improved fourth-quarter results yet occupy distinct positions in the banking landscape. A larger, diversified financial institution and a focused Southeast community bank may appeal to different types of investors, making their relative performance and market positioning worth understanding side by side. By reviewing recent momentum, profitability, capital strength, and growth drivers, readers can better assess how each stock fits into the current market environment.
3) KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp (KEY), headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, is a regional bank holding company serving retail and commercial clients across the United States. Its business spans traditional lending and deposits alongside substantial investment banking, commercial payments, and wealth-management operations.
In recent market activity, KEY has benefited from an improving interest-income backdrop. In its latest quarterly report, net interest income (NII, the difference between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits) rose 15.3% year over year to roughly $1.22 billion, while its net interest margin (NIM, a measure of lending profitability) expanded 41 basis points to 2.82%. Adjusted earnings per share came in ahead of consensus, and management pointed to record assets under management (AUM) of $70 billion. Notably, activist investor HoldCo Asset Management has pressed the company to avoid acquisitions and prioritize buybacks, a dynamic that has shaped sentiment around capital deployment in recent weeks.
4) UCB Overview and Recent Performance
United Community Banks, Inc. (UCB), based in Greenville, South Carolina, is a financial holding company serving commercial and retail customers across the fast-growing Southeast. Its offerings include deposits, loans, mortgage lending, wealth management, and treasury services.
Recent performance for UCB has been characterized by steady margin expansion and disciplined capital management. In its most recent quarter, net income reached $86.5 million, with operating diluted earnings per share up 13% year over year. The company's NIM climbed 36 basis points year over year to 3.62%, aided by loan growth and lower deposit costs, while its loan-to-deposit ratio rose to 82%. Management also repurchased one million shares and noted a healthy commercial lending pipeline, with economic conditions in its core markets remaining supportive.
5) Trending AI Robots
For traders seeking a more systematic approach to names like these, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of its most relevant algorithmic strategies. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI Trading Bots covering thousands of different tickers, each built around distinct trading styles, timeframes, strategies, performance profiles, and statistical frameworks. Rather than surfacing every available bot, the Trending AI Robots section highlights only those best suited to current market conditions, helping users filter for the strategies most aligned with prevailing momentum and volatility. Explore the Trending AI Robots page to see which automated strategies are currently gaining traction.
6) Head-to-Head Comparison
On a fundamental level, the two banks present a clear contrast in scale and focus. KeyCorp is a much larger, more diversified institution with roughly $150 billion in average deposits and a fee-heavy revenue stream driven by capital markets and wealth services. United Community Banks is a smaller community lender whose revenue depends heavily on net interest income, which represented over 80% of its total revenue in recent years.
Profitability metrics also diverge. UCB's NIM of 3.62% is materially higher than KeyCorp's 2.82%, reflecting its community banking profile and deposit base, while KeyCorp's return on average tangible common equity (ROTCE, a measure of profitability against tangible shareholder capital) and its investment banking franchise offer a different growth lever. On capital strength, UCB's Common Equity Tier 1 ratio (CET1, a key measure of a bank's core capital) of 13.4% exceeds KeyCorp's 11.7%.
Risk factors differ as well. KeyCorp faces governance and capital-allocation scrutiny from an activist investor, while UCB carries geographic concentration in the Southeast and recently saw net charge-offs tick higher on a pair of commercial loans. In terms of sentiment, both stocks have shown resilience in recent weeks, though KeyCorp's larger investment banking exposure ties it more closely to capital markets activity, whereas UCB's momentum hinges on regional loan and deposit growth.
7) Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor UCB for its consistency and stability in the current environment, while recognizing KeyCorp's stronger earnings momentum and diversified catalysts. UCB's higher net interest margin, stronger CET1 capital ratio, steady organic growth, and proactive share repurchases suggest a more defensive, trend-consistent profile. KeyCorp's expanding NIM, rising fee income, and elevated investment banking pipeline point to potentially greater upside but also introduce more variability tied to market cycles and activist-related uncertainty. Accordingly, the AI's positioning would probably lean toward UCB for stability-oriented strategies and toward KEY for momentum-driven approaches, with the final weighting depending on prevailing trend signals and each stock's relative positioning at any given time.
8) Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KEY is a Hold and UCB is a Hold.
KEY's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for KEY moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 21 of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KEY as a result. In 57 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KEY just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where KEY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
KEY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.92% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KEY advanced for three days, in 177 of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for KEY moved below the 200-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KEY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
KEY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for KEY entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. KEY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 57 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.297) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (12.156) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.332) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.996) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KEY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
UCB in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
UCB moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 29 of 47 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UCB as a result. In 45 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UCB just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where UCB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +4.96% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UCB advanced for three days, in 157 of 288 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UCB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
UCB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UCB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.154) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (11.716) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.110) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.029) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.890) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
KEY | UCB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 57 Fair valued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 66 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 7 | 12 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 85 | 59 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEY's Valuation (57) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as UCB (81) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to UCB’s over the last 12 months.
UCB's Profit vs Risk Rating (66) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (77) in the Major Banks industry. This means that UCB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's SMR Rating (7) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as UCB (12) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to UCB’s over the last 12 months.
UCB's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (49) in the Major Banks industry. This means that UCB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
UCB's P/E Growth Rating (59) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (85) in the Major Banks industry. This means that UCB’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| KEY | UCB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 70% | 9 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KEY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while UCB’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- KEY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UCB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KEY’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UCB’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KEY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UCB’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
KEY (@Regional Banks) experienced а +6.27% price change this week, while UCB (@Regional Banks) price change was +8.11% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
KEY is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
UCB is expected to report earnings on Jan 19, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.63% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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KEY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KEY has been closely correlated with ASB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KEY jumps, then ASB could also see price increases.
UCB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UCB has been closely correlated with UBSI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UCB jumps, then UBSI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UCB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCB | 100% | +3.85% | ||
| UBSI - UCB | 91% Closely correlated | +2.71% | ||
| FULT - UCB | 88% Closely correlated | +3.64% | ||
| CATY - UCB | 88% Closely correlated | +5.95% | ||
| HWC - UCB | 87% Closely correlated | +1.63% | ||
| ONB - UCB | 87% Closely correlated | +2.32% | ||
More | ||||
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