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LEN vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Lennar (LEN) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LEN has experienced a sharper year-to-date decline compared to TOL, reflecting broader pressures on volume-oriented homebuilders.
- TOL has delivered stronger recent returns, supported by its focus on luxury homes that appeal to higher-income buyers less sensitive to mortgage rates.
- Both companies operate in the cyclical homebuilding sector, where performance is closely tied to interest rates, housing inventory levels, and consumer sentiment.
- LEN reported lower second-quarter 2026 earnings year-over-year while executing share repurchases and managing inventory.
- TOL is scheduled to report third-quarter results shortly, with market attention on whether it can sustain its relative outperformance.
- Relative momentum favors TOL in the current environment, though both stocks remain exposed to sector-wide risks.
Introduction
LEN and TOL represent two prominent players in the U.S. homebuilding industry. Lennar Corporation focuses on a broad range of homes, while Toll Brothers, Inc. specializes in luxury properties. Investors and traders often compare these stocks to assess exposure to housing demand, interest-rate sensitivity, and operational efficiency within the same sector. This analysis examines recent performance, business models, and market positioning to highlight key differences and similarities relevant to those evaluating relative value in residential construction equities.
LEN Overview and Recent Performance
Lennar Corporation is one of the largest U.S. homebuilders, known for its diversified portfolio across entry-level, move-up, and active-adult communities, along with integrated financial services. In recent market activity, shares have traded near the lower end of their 52-week range amid broader sector challenges. The company reported second-quarter 2026 results showing lower net earnings compared with the prior year, alongside share repurchases and efforts to optimize inventory levels. Sentiment has been influenced by elevated mortgage rates and cost pressures, contributing to a negative year-to-date return for the stock.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, Inc. positions itself as a luxury homebuilder, targeting affluent buyers with customizable, high-end residences. Recent performance has been relatively resilient, with the stock posting positive year-to-date gains. The company has benefited from strong demand in its premium segment and continued community openings. Attention is now focused on the upcoming third-quarter earnings release, as investors monitor revenue trends and margin dynamics in a high-rate environment that has supported selective outperformance for luxury-focused builders.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
LEN and TOL differ primarily in market segment and scale. LEN emphasizes higher-volume production across multiple price points and benefits from ancillary mortgage and title operations, whereas TOL concentrates on luxury builds with greater customization and typically higher margins per unit. Recent momentum has favored TOL, which has recorded better relative returns amid elevated borrowing costs that disproportionately affect first-time and entry-level buyers. Both face sector risks including interest-rate volatility, land and material costs, and regulatory factors, yet TOL’s positioning offers a potential buffer through wealthier clientele. Market sentiment reflects these contrasts, with TOL demonstrating greater stability in the current cycle.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as recent relative returns, trend consistency, and positioning within the luxury segment, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a probabilistic preference to TOL. Its stronger year-to-date performance and alignment with resilient demand drivers provide a modest edge in stability and catalyst visibility compared with LEN. This assessment remains subject to evolving macroeconomic conditions and upcoming earnings data.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LEN is a StrongBuy and TOL is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LEN’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- LEN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LEN’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LEN’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
LEN (@Homebuilding) experienced а +1.87% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +1.38% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +2.23%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.37%.
Reported Earning Dates
LEN is expected to report earnings on Sep 17, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+2.23% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| LEN | TOL | LEN / TOL | |
| Capitalization | 21.2B | 13.6B | 156% |
| EBITDA | 2.18B | 1.7B | 128% |
| Gain YTD | -12.885 | 9.641 | -134% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.82 | 11.88 | 116% |
| Revenue | 32.7B | 11B | 297% |
| Total Cash | 2.13B | 1.11B | 193% |
| Total Debt | 6.01B | 2.92B | 206% |
LEN | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 74 | 75 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 89 Overvalued | 64 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 98 | 40 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 78 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 24 | 30 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TOL's Valuation (64) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (89). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (40) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LEN (98). This means that TOL’s stock grew somewhat faster than LEN’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (78). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (53) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (61). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
LEN's P/E Growth Rating (24) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (30). This means that LEN’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| LEN | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 68% | 8 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 62% |
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LEN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LEN has been closely correlated with DHI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LEN jumps, then DHI could also see price increases.