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LEN vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Lennar Corporation (LEN) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Lennar (LEN) is the nation's largest homebuilder by volume and targets entry-level and move-up buyers, while Toll Brothers (TOL) is a luxury builder serving a more affluent, less rate-sensitive customer.
- Both stocks have struggled amid elevated mortgage rates and weak housing affordability, but their margin profiles differ sharply: Lennar's gross margin has compressed into the mid-teens, while Toll Brothers has held margins above 25%.
- Recent market positioning has diverged: Berkshire Hathaway has been steadily accumulating Lennar shares, while Toll Brothers carries a more favorable average Wall Street rating and price target.
- Lennar leans on a high-volume, asset-light efficiency strategy; Toll Brothers is simplifying by exiting its multifamily (Apartment Living) business to refocus on core luxury homebuilding.
- Relative performance and sentiment favor Toll Brothers on profitability and analyst consensus, though Lennar offers a value-oriented, insider-backed setup that could benefit if affordability improves.
Introduction
Lennar Corporation and Toll Brothers, Inc. are two of the most closely watched names in U.S. residential construction, yet they occupy different ends of the housing market. Lennar operates as a high-volume production builder emphasizing affordability and efficiency, while Toll Brothers is the leading luxury homebuilder serving affluent buyers. Comparing these two stocks offers a useful lens on how housing demand, mortgage rates, and consumer confidence are shaping the sector. For traders and investors evaluating relative performance and market positioning, the contrast between a scale-driven model and a premium-margin model can clarify which exposure best matches the current environment.
LEN Overview and Recent Performance
Lennar Corporation is the largest U.S. homebuilder by delivery volume, operating across East, Central, South Central, and West regions alongside financial services, multifamily, and technology-investment segments. In its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter, Lennar reported total revenues of roughly $9.37 billion, beating consensus, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS, a measure of profit allocated to each share) came in below expectations as the average sales price of delivered homes declined about 10% year over year. Gross margin on home sales compressed to roughly 17%, reflecting higher incentives and land costs.
Recent market activity has been mixed. The stock has traded well below its 52-week high, and several analysts initiated or maintained cautious ratings with reduced price targets in recent weeks. A notable offsetting catalyst has been Berkshire Hathaway, which has repeatedly added to its Lennar stake, lifting its ownership to roughly 12% of the company. This accumulation has periodically supported the shares even as affordability headwinds and a negative third-party research report weighed on sentiment. Lennar continues to emphasize cost discipline, faster construction cycle times, and inventory turnover to defend volume in a challenging market.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, Inc. is the leading luxury homebuilder in the United States, operating in more than 60 markets across 24 states and serving affluent first-time, move-up, active-adult, and second-home buyers. In fiscal 2025, the company delivered a record of roughly $10.8 billion in home sales revenue, with an average delivered home price near $960,000 and an adjusted home sales gross margin of about 27.3%. Fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $4.58 modestly missed consensus, though revenue surpassed estimates.
In recent weeks, Toll Brothers has focused on simplifying its portfolio, completing the sale of roughly half of its Apartment Living portfolio to Kennedy Wilson and signaling an eventual exit from multifamily development to concentrate on core luxury homebuilding. While soft demand and elevated mortgage rates remain headwinds, the company's more affluent customer base has been less exposed to affordability pressures. The stock has traded below its 52-week high, yet average analyst sentiment remains comparatively constructive, with a consensus price target implying meaningful upside from current levels.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies reflect fundamentally different business models within the same sector. Lennar pursues scale and affordability, delivering tens of thousands of homes annually at an average price near $386,000, which leaves it highly sensitive to mortgage-rate moves and consumer confidence. Toll Brothers emphasizes premium positioning, with an average delivered price near $960,000, generating structurally higher gross margins but serving a smaller addressable customer base.
On growth drivers, Lennar is investing in technology, inventory turnover, and an asset-light land strategy to improve returns, while Toll Brothers is expanding community count and exiting non-core multifamily operations. Risk profiles also differ: Lennar faces sharper margin compression from sales incentives, whereas Toll Brothers has seen declining order value and a shrinking backlog, with a rising cancellation rate in recent quarters. Market sentiment is similarly split—Lennar has attracted heavy insider-style accumulation from Berkshire Hathaway but a more cautious analyst consensus, while Toll Brothers carries a generally stronger average rating despite its own demand softness.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor Toll Brothers on the current setup, given its superior margin stability, a clearer strategic catalyst from the multifamily exit, and comparatively stronger analyst positioning. Lennar presents a more contrarian, value-oriented profile supported by persistent accumulation from Berkshire Hathaway, but its trend has been less consistent and its earnings trajectory more pressured. As with any algorithmic assessment, the outlook is probabilistic rather than definitive; the balance could shift if affordability improves or if Lennar's margin recovery accelerates.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LEN is a StrongBuy and TOL is a StrongBuy.
LEN in +9.29% Uptrend, rising for three consecutive days on October 23, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where LEN advanced for three days, in 203 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LEN as a result. In 50 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LEN just turned positive on October 19, 2026. Looking at past instances where LEN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
LEN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LEN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
LEN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for LEN entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LEN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 98 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.946) is normal, around the industry mean (1.728). P/E Ratio (13.310) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.907). LEN's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (11.302) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.594) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LEN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock worse than average.
Momentum Indicator for TOL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TOL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 67 of the 86 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 40 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 225 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for TOL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TOL entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.511) is normal, around the industry mean (1.728). P/E Ratio (11.192) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.907). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
LEN | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 78 | 81 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 98 Overvalued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 98 | 42 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 78 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 33 | 26 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TOL's Valuation (69) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (98). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (42) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LEN (98). This means that TOL’s stock grew somewhat faster than LEN’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (58) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (78). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (55) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (58). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's P/E Growth Rating (26) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (33). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
| LEN | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 23 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 67% | 6 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 68% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LEN’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- LEN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LEN’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LEN’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
LEN (@Homebuilding) experienced а +10.17% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +4.64% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +4.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.57%.
Reported Earning Dates
LEN is expected to report earnings on Dec 15, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+4.05% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.