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LEN vs PHM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Lennar (LEN) vs. PulteGroup (PHM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different playbooks: LEN is a volume-first, entry-level-focused builder with thin margins, while PHM runs a more diversified mix of first-time, move-up, and active-adult buyers.
- Relative performance gap: PHM has held up noticeably better than LEN, which has traded near multi-year lows amid a recent earnings miss.
- Margin contrast: PHM reports materially higher home sale gross margins than LEN, reflecting its richer product mix and build-to-order shift.
- Balance-sheet strength: Both companies carry strong cash positions and disciplined debt levels, giving each financial flexibility in a softer housing cycle.
- Shared headwinds: Elevated mortgage rates, affordability pressure, and rising resale competition weigh on both names.
Introduction
Lennar and PulteGroup are two of the largest publicly traded homebuilders in the United States, yet they pursue distinctly different operating strategies. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders seeking to understand how relative performance, business model, and market positioning diverge between two sector leaders facing the same macro environment. With 30-year fixed mortgage rates elevated near recent highs and housing affordability under pressure, homebuilder stocks have become a focal point for those monitoring interest-rate sensitivity and consumer demand. Comparing LEN and PHM highlights how two companies can navigate identical headwinds with meaningfully different results.
LEN Overview and Recent Performance
LEN, or Lennar Corporation, is a Miami-based national homebuilder focused primarily on entry-level and affordable homes, operating through an asset-light, land-option model in which it owns only a small fraction of its homesites. This approach is designed to generate cash flow and returns, but it has also left the company exposed to higher land costs committed under earlier market conditions.
In recent market activity, Lennar's stock has traded near its 52-week low, with year-to-date losses exceeding 25% and a one-year decline of more than 40%. A recent quarterly report missed consensus expectations on both revenue and adjusted earnings per share (EPS), even as gross margin improved sequentially to roughly 15.8%. Management has prioritized steady volume, reducing buyer incentives and cutting construction costs, while guiding to continued margin improvement. Rising resale inventory in key states such as Texas and Florida and elevated mortgage rates have weighed on sentiment, though large shareholders, including Berkshire Hathaway, have increased their positions in recent months.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PHM, or PulteGroup, is an Atlanta-based homebuilder operating in more than 45 markets through brands that include Pulte Homes, Centex, Del Webb, DiVosta, and John Wieland. This diversified brand portfolio allows the company to serve first-time, move-up, and active-adult (55-plus) buyers, a mix that supports higher average selling prices and richer gross margins than many peers.
In recent quarters, PulteGroup has also felt affordability pressures, with home sale revenue and EPS declining year over year. However, its reported home sale gross margin has remained substantially higher than Lennar's, near the mid-20% range, despite elevated incentives. Net new orders have grown modestly, and the company has been pivoting toward a higher proportion of build-to-order homes while reducing speculative inventory. A strong balance sheet, sizable cash balance, and an expanded share repurchase authorization have supported the stock, which has outperformed the broader homebuilder segment and held up better than LEN over the past year.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two builders lies in strategy and margin profile. LEN emphasizes volume and production efficiency, accepting thinner margins to move homes and clear higher-cost land. PHM favors a higher-margin product mix and is actively shifting toward build-to-order construction to support profitability. This divergence is visible in reported gross margins, where PHM maintains a clear advantage.
On growth drivers, PHM has posted modest order growth and strong demand in active-adult communities, while LEN has focused on stabilizing margins and sustaining delivery volumes. Risk profiles also differ: LEN's land-option model carries longer-duration land obligations, while PHM's greater geographic and product diversification provides some insulation. Both face the same sector-level pressures of elevated rates and affordability, but PHM has demonstrated more consistent relative performance and market positioning in the recent environment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, margin durability, order momentum, and relative stability, Tickeron's AI would likely favor PHM over LEN in the current environment. PHM exhibits stronger relative price stability, a higher-margin business mix, resilient order growth, and a cleaner balance sheet, which together suggest more favorable positioning. LEN, by contrast, remains a higher-beta, value-oriented candidate that could benefit from a housing recovery but currently carries greater earnings and sentiment risk. The assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting the uncertainty inherent in interest-rate-sensitive sectors.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LEN is a StrongBuy and PHM is a StrongBuy.
LEN's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LEN turned positive on October 19, 2026. Looking at past instances where LEN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LEN as a result. In 55 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
LEN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for LEN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +4.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LEN advanced for three days, in 203 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LEN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
LEN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for LEN entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LEN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LEN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.969) is normal, around the industry mean (1.826). P/E Ratio (13.627) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.881). LEN's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (11.302) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.594) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
PHM's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for PHM moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 16 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 14 of the 16 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PHM as a result. In 69 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PHM just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where PHM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
PHM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PHM advanced for three days, in 212 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for PHM moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PHM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
PHM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PHM entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PHM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.826) is normal, around the industry mean (1.826). P/E Ratio (12.651) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.881). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.995) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.393) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
LEN | PHM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 37 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 96 Overvalued | 74 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 92 | 30 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 78 | 57 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 30 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PHM's Valuation (74) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (96). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (30) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LEN (92). This means that PHM’s stock grew somewhat faster than LEN’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's SMR Rating (57) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (78). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (51). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (30). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
| LEN | PHM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 88% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 67% | 21 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 72% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LEN’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PHM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- LEN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PHM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LEN’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PHM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LEN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PHM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
LEN (@Homebuilding) experienced а +2.38% price change this week, while PHM (@Homebuilding) price change was +2.93% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -0.09%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.42%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.38%.
Reported Earning Dates
LEN is expected to report earnings on Dec 15, 2026.
PHM is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-0.09% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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PHM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PHM has been closely correlated with DHI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 92% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PHM jumps, then DHI could also see price increases.