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LGIH vs MTH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? LGI Homes (LGIH) vs. Meritage Homes (MTH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LGIH (LGI Homes) is a midsize, entry-level-focused homebuilder, while MTH (Meritage Homes) is the fifth-largest U.S. public homebuilder — a meaningful difference in scale and market positioning.
- LGI Homes has raised its full-year gross margin guidance twice in 2026 and grew its backlog by 63% year over year, signaling improving operational momentum.
- Meritage Homes carries a notably stronger balance sheet (an 18.9% net debt-to-capital ratio and $677 million in cash) but recently missed quarterly revenue estimates and withdrew its financial guidance.
- Relative performance has diverged: LGIH's trend has been stabilizing on margin and backlog gains, while MTH's trend has softened on declining orders and rising incentives.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency and relative momentum, Tickeron's AI currently favors LGIH over MTH.
- For deeper context, explore LGIH Major News and LGIH Today's Price Move, as well as MTH Major News and MTH Today's Price Move.
- To see which automated strategies are currently in favor, browse the Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Both LGIH and MTH operate in the U.S. homebuilding sector, yet they occupy different ends of that market and have charted diverging paths through a challenging stretch of elevated mortgage rates and softer consumer sentiment. This stock comparison examines their business models, recent relative performance, and market positioning to help traders and long-term investors assess which name currently presents a more compelling risk-and-reward profile. With affordability pressures squeezing the entire industry, understanding how an entry-level specialist and a large diversified builder respond differently to the same macro environment is essential for anyone evaluating exposure to housing-related equities.
LGIH Overview and Recent Performance
LGIH — LGI Homes, Inc. — is a Texas-based builder focused almost entirely on entry-level, move-in-ready ("spec") homes across roughly 36 markets in 21 states. Its model emphasizes affordability, quick inventory turns, and a largely self-developed, on-balance-sheet land pipeline designed to capture developer profits internally.
Recent weeks have shown a mixed but improving picture. The company raised its full-year gross margin guidance for a second consecutive quarter, citing better cost control, favorable sales mix, and a higher average sales price. Its backlog grew 63% year over year to its highest level since 2022, and second-quarter revenue beat analyst expectations. However, the same period revealed headwinds: a persistently high cancellation rate driven by buyers failing to qualify for financing, a softer underlying sales pace, and elevated leverage. S&P Global Ratings downgraded LGI Homes to "B-" with a negative outlook, citing slower demand and elevated debt relative to earnings. The stock has been volatile, trading well below its 52-week high while remaining up on a year-to-date basis in earlier periods.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
MTH — Meritage Homes Corporation — is the fifth-largest public homebuilder in the United States, headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona. It specializes in energy-efficient, affordable entry-level and first move-up homes across 12 states concentrated in the Sun Belt and Southeast.
Meritage's recent performance reflects a more defensive posture. In its latest quarterly report, revenue fell roughly 18% year over year and missed consensus estimates, while orders declined about 15% as the company deliberately prioritized margin preservation over sales pace. Management subsequently withdrew its financial guidance for all metrics, and at least one sell-side firm lowered its price target while maintaining a Hold rating. On the positive side, the balance sheet remains a clear strength: the company ended the period with $677 million in cash, no borrowings under its revolving credit facility, and a net debt-to-capital ratio of 18.9%. Meritage also continued returning substantial capital to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, even as earnings compressed.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most striking contrast between these two names is scale versus focus. MTH operates roughly 348 communities and generates several times the revenue of LGIH, but its diversified footprint has not shielded it from margin compression tied to higher buyer incentives and rising lot costs. LGIH, by contrast, runs a leaner, concentrated entry-level model whose self-developed land strategy has helped it sustain — and even improve — gross margins.
Balance-sheet risk is another key differentiator. Meritage's net debt-to-capital ratio near 19% and ample liquidity stand in stark contrast to LGI Homes' higher leverage and recent credit downgrade, which introduces refinancing and interest-coverage considerations that Meritage does not face to the same degree. Conversely, growth and sentiment momentum tilt toward LGIH: its raised margin guidance and surging backlog contrast with MTH's revenue miss, order decline, and withdrawn guidance.
Both companies remain exposed to the same sector-level risks — elevated mortgage rates, affordability constraints, tariff-related cost uncertainty, and volatile consumer confidence — but their positioning differs. Meritage is returning more capital to shareholders and prioritizing balance-sheet strength, while LGI Homes is investing for community-count expansion and margin durability. For traders, LGIH has shown greater recent price volatility and momentum swings, whereas MTH's performance has trended more steadily downward amid softer fundamentals.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing observable factors rather than any single metric, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward LGIH as the favored ticker in this pairing. The reasoning centers on relative trend consistency and catalyst momentum: LGI Homes has delivered consecutive margin-guidance increases, a materially expanded backlog, and a revenue beat, all of which point to an improving operational trajectory. Meritage's stronger balance sheet and disciplined capital returns are genuine positives, but its revenue miss, order decline, and withdrawn guidance reflect a softening trend that the model views less favorably. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive — Meritage's financial strength could make it the more resilient choice if the housing downturn deepens — but on current relative positioning, the AI framework favors LGIH.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LGIH is a StrongBuy and MTH is a StrongBuy.
LGIH's Stochastic Oscillator stoops into oversold zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for LGIH moved into oversold territory on November 12, 2026. Be on the watch for the price uptrend or consolidation in the future. At that time, consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where LGIH's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 26 of 35 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LGIH just turned positive on October 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where LGIH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +8.41% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LGIH advanced for three days, in 167 of 245 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LGIH as a result. In 72 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
LGIH moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for LGIH moved below the 200-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LGIH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
LGIH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for LGIH entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 44 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.497) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (15.878) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.674) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. LGIH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LGIH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
MTH in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026
The 10-day moving average for MTH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MTH as a result. In 56 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTH just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where MTH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
MTH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +8.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTH advanced for three days, in 200 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 132 of 206 cases where MTH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MTH moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 28 of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
MTH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 45 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.877) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (14.089) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.814) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
LGIH | MTH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 65 | 70 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 44 Fair valued | 45 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 70 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 87 | 80 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 9 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LGIH's Valuation (44) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (45). This means that LGIH’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Profit vs Risk Rating (70) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LGIH (100). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to LGIH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's SMR Rating (80) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LGIH (87). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to LGIH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LGIH (61). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to LGIH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LGIH (10). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to LGIH’s over the last 12 months.
| LGIH | MTH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 68% | 22 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 64% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LGIH’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MTH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- LGIH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MTH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LGIH’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTH’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LGIH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MTH’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
LGIH (@Homebuilding) experienced а -12.79% price change this week, while MTH (@Homebuilding) price change was -8.77% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -3.55%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.79%.
Reported Earning Dates
LGIH is expected to report earnings on Feb 23, 2027.
MTH is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-3.55% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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LGIH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LGIH has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LGIH jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LGIH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGIH | 100% | -3.56% | ||
| MTH - LGIH | 80% Closely correlated | -2.60% | ||
| MHO - LGIH | 76% Closely correlated | -1.42% | ||
| HOV - LGIH | 74% Closely correlated | -2.73% | ||
| PHM - LGIH | 73% Closely correlated | -2.01% | ||
| KBH - LGIH | 73% Closely correlated | -2.73% | ||
More | ||||
MTH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTH has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTH jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.