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LGIH vs PHM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? LGI Homes (LGIH) vs. PulteGroup (PHM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LGIH is a mid-sized, entry-level-focused homebuilder trading near multi-year lows, while PHM is one of the nation's largest diversified homebuilders with a far larger market capitalization.
- Both companies face a softer housing environment, but PHM's scale, order growth, and balance sheet provide greater stability than LGIH's elevated cancellation rate and credit downgrade.
- PHM is returning significant capital to shareholders through buybacks and dividends; LGIH currently pays no dividend.
- LGIH screens statistically "cheap" on earnings but carries higher leverage and refinancing risk, while PHM trades at a modest forward price-to-earnings multiple with a "Buy" consensus among analysts.
- Relative performance and momentum currently favor PHM, which shows steadier trend consistency and stronger market positioning.
Introduction
Both LGIH (LGI Homes) and PHM (PulteGroup) operate in the U.S. homebuilding industry, yet they sit at opposite ends of the size and strategy spectrum. Comparing them offers investors a useful lens on how the current housing cycle rewards scale, financial strength, and buyer diversification. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors and traders weighing relative performance, market positioning, and risk across a large-cap national builder versus a smaller, growth-oriented entry-level specialist. Because both are sensitive to mortgage rates, consumer confidence, and affordability, their recent price behavior highlights meaningful differences in resilience that can inform sector allocation decisions.
LGIH Overview and Recent Performance
LGI Homes, headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas, specializes in entry-level and move-up homes under the LGI Homes and Terrata brands, supplemented by a wholesale business that sells homes to single-family rental investors. It operates across 36 markets in 21 states and relies heavily on self-developed lots and a move-in-ready product strategy. In recent weeks, LGIH shares have traded near their 52-week lows, with the stock down roughly double digits over the trailing month and quarter and materially lower over a multi-year horizon.
The decline reflects a difficult demand backdrop. First-quarter results showed lower home sales revenue and a sharply elevated cancellation rate, while net income narrowed substantially. S&P Global Ratings downgraded the company to 'B-' with a negative outlook, citing slower demand, elevated leverage, and margin pressure. Management has since reported improved third-quarter closings and community-count growth, but the combination of high leverage, no dividend, and weaker momentum has kept sentiment cautious. Its 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical gauge of momentum, has hovered in oversold territory.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup, based in Atlanta, is one of America's largest homebuilders, operating in more than 45 markets through brands including Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, and John Wieland. This diversified portfolio spans entry-level, move-up, and active-adult buyers, supported by an integrated financial services segment that captures mortgage originations. In recent market activity, PHM shares have also pulled back from highs but remain well above their 52-week lows.
The company's recent quarters show the same affordability headwinds as the broader sector—lower closings, softer average selling prices, and gross margin compression tied to higher incentives. However, PulteGroup has offset these pressures with rising net new orders, a growing community count, and a comparatively conservative balance sheet, including roughly $1.8 billion in cash and a low debt-to-capital ratio. It has also continued substantial share repurchases and maintained its dividend, while analysts broadly rate the stock a "Buy" with a consensus price target above the current price.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The sharpest contrast between LGIH and PHM is scale and financial resilience. PulteGroup's market capitalization is roughly twenty times larger than LGI Homes', and it carries a far lighter leverage profile with substantial cash and virtually no net debt. LGI Homes, by contrast, was recently downgraded by a major rating agency over elevated leverage and refinancing risk, leaving it more vulnerable if the selling season disappoints.
Growth drivers also differ. LGIH's model depends on rapid inventory turnover, high closings per community, and self-developed land, which amplifies both upside and downside. PulteGroup leans on order momentum, a larger community pipeline, and an integrated mortgage business. On recent momentum, PHM has shown steadier trend consistency, while LGIH's high beta and oversold readings signal greater volatility. Both face shared sector risks—elevated mortgage rates, affordability constraints, and weak consumer confidence—but PHM's buybacks, dividend, and diversified buyer mix provide more downside cushion.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor PHM in the current environment. PulteGroup exhibits steadier trend consistency, positive order growth, a stronger balance sheet, and disciplined capital returns, all of which support more stable relative positioning. LGIH's valuation may appear attractive, but its elevated cancellation rate, credit downgrade, and higher leverage introduce greater uncertainty. A probability-weighted, systematic approach would therefore lean toward PHM for stability and resilience, while acknowledging that LGIH could offer larger upside if affordability and consumer confidence recover.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LGIH is a Hold and PHM is a Hold.
LGIH sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for LGIH moved below the 200-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 28, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LGIH as a result. In 69 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LGIH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
The Aroon Indicator for LGIH entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where LGIH's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 31 of 35 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 44 of 64 cases where LGIH's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LGIH just turned positive on October 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where LGIH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Following a +3.36% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LGIH advanced for three days, in 171 of 248 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
LGIH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 43 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.463) is normal, around the industry mean (1.728). P/E Ratio (14.798) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.907). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.674) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. LGIH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LGIH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock worse than average.
Momentum Indicator for PHM turns positive, indicating new upward trend
PHM saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 92 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 71 of the 92 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where PHM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 11 of 16 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PHM just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where PHM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
PHM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +7.35% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PHM advanced for three days, in 212 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for PHM moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PHM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
PHM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PHM entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PHM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.774) is normal, around the industry mean (1.728). P/E Ratio (12.291) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.907). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.995) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.393) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
LGIH | PHM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 72 | 23 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 43 Fair valued | 73 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 87 | 57 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 76 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 16 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LGIH's Valuation (43) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (73). This means that LGIH’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Homebuilding industry is significantly better than the same rating for LGIH (100). This means that PHM’s stock grew significantly faster than LGIH’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's SMR Rating (57) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LGIH (87). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to LGIH’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LGIH (76). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to LGIH’s over the last 12 months.
LGIH's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (16). This means that LGIH’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
| LGIH | PHM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 83% | 13 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LGIH’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PHM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- LGIH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PHM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LGIH’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PHM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LGIH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PHM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
LGIH (@Homebuilding) experienced а -1.26% price change this week, while PHM (@Homebuilding) price change was +6.73% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +4.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.57%.
Reported Earning Dates
LGIH is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
PHM is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+4.05% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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PHM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PHM has been closely correlated with DHI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PHM jumps, then DHI could also see price increases.