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LGIH vs PHM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? LGI Homes (LGIH) vs. PulteGroup (PHM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both companies are U.S. homebuilders facing the same macro headwinds — elevated mortgage rates and strained affordability — but their scale, financial strength, and market positioning differ sharply.
- PHM is a diversified, large-cap builder with a conservative balance sheet, while LGIH is a smaller, higher-beta, entry-level-focused builder with greater leverage.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: On observable factors including trend consistency, balance-sheet stability, and defensive positioning, the AI favors PHM over LGIH in the current environment.
- Recent relative performance has diverged, with PHM showing more resilient price action while LGIH has pulled back meaningfully over the past several weeks.
- Explore LGIH Major News and LGIH Today's Price Move, as well as PHM Major News and PHM Today's Price Move, for the latest developments and intraday action.
- For a data-driven view of which stocks are in favor right now, explore the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Homebuilders sit at the intersection of interest rates, consumer confidence, and the broader housing cycle, making them a natural battleground for investors trying to gauge where the economy is heading. This stock comparison examines two very different players in the same industry: LGIH (LGI Homes), a smaller builder focused on affordable, entry-level communities, and PHM (PulteGroup), one of the largest and most diversified homebuilders in the United States. Comparing them side by side offers useful insight for traders evaluating relative performance and market positioning, and for longer-term investors weighing growth potential against balance-sheet durability in a challenging mortgage-rate environment.
LGIH Overview and Recent Performance
LGI Homes designs, constructs, and sells entry-level and active-adult homes primarily under the LGI Homes brand, alongside its Terrata Homes luxury line, and operates across markets concentrated in Texas, the Southeast, and other growth states. The company also runs a wholesale business selling homes in bulk to single-family rental institutions. This affordable-first strategy gives LGIH meaningful exposure to rate-sensitive, first-time buyers, which has weighed on sentiment as mortgage rates have climbed in recent weeks.
Recent market activity has been challenging for the stock. LGIH has pulled back substantially over the past several weeks and sits well below its 52-week high, with a beta near 1.9 reflecting above-average volatility. Operationally, the company reported September home closings up roughly 9% year over year and third-quarter closings up about 10%, and it raised its full-year margin outlook earlier in the year. However, a softer underlying sales pace, tariff-related cost risk, and a heavier debt load relative to larger peers have kept the stock under pressure heading into its next earnings report.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PulteGroup is one of America's largest homebuilding companies, operating in more than 45 markets through a brand portfolio that includes Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods. This diversification spans first-time, move-up, and active-adult buyers, which reduces reliance on any single customer segment. PHM also maintains a notably conservative balance sheet, ending its most recent quarter with roughly $1.4 billion in cash and a debt-to-capital ratio of about 12%.
In its latest quarterly report, PHM posted earnings per share and revenue that came in modestly below analyst expectations, with revenue declining about 9% year over year on fewer home closings and softer traffic. Gross margin held at a relatively healthy level, though incentives rose, and net new orders declined. Despite the headline miss, the stock rebounded in the following session, reflecting investor focus on the company's disciplined capital allocation, ongoing share repurchases, dividend payments, and resilient margins rather than the short-term volume shortfall.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a large ecosystem of AI trading bots that monitor thousands of different tickers across many markets. Because market conditions change constantly, only a select group of bots is featured in the curated Trending AI Robots section — the ones currently best suited to prevailing conditions. These bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance track record, and the sets of tickers they trade, giving investors a range of approaches to explore rather than a one-size-fits-all signal. Many bots publish detailed statistics on their win rates, trade frequency, and historical results, helping users compare approaches at a glance. If you are interested in how algorithmic strategies are positioning across names like LGIH and PHM, the Trending AI Robots page is a practical starting point.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The most striking contrast between these two names is scale and financial strength. PHM is a large-cap builder with geographic and product diversification, low leverage, a modest dividend, and an aggressive buyback program that returned about $1 billion to shareholders through the first nine months of the year. LGIH, by contrast, is a smaller company with a more concentrated affordable-housing focus, a debt-to-equity ratio materially above 70%, and no dividend.
On growth and valuation, the trade-offs reverse. LGIH trades at a low price-to-book multiple and carries analyst price targets that imply substantial upside, reflecting its higher cyclical beta and sensitivity to a housing recovery. PHM offers steadier cash generation and defensive balance-sheet qualities but trades at a more mature valuation with more modest implied upside. In terms of recent momentum, PHM has demonstrated more relative stability, while LGIH has underperformed during the recent pullback, a reflection of its higher risk profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI currently leans toward PHM over LGIH. The preference reflects PHM's more resilient price action, conservative balance sheet, diversified buyer mix, and steady return of capital to shareholders — qualities that tend to hold up better when mortgage rates pressure demand. LGIH's lower valuation and higher leverage could position it for sharper upside in a housing recovery, but that same profile currently implies greater downside sensitivity. As conditions evolve, this relative assessment could shift, which is why algorithmic models continually re-evaluate both names.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LGIH is a Hold and PHM is a Hold.
LGIH's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for LGIH entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 290 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 250 of the 290 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LGIH as a result. In 68 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LGIH turned negative on November 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
LGIH moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for LGIH moved below the 200-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LGIH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
LGIH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where LGIH's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 35 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +8.41% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LGIH advanced for three days, in 167 of 245 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 44 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.497) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (15.878) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.674) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. LGIH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LGIH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock worse than average.
PHM sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
PHM saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on November 13, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 51 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PHM moved out of overbought territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 47%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PHM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
PHM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PHM as a result. In 63 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
PHM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PHM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 7 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +5.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PHM advanced for three days, in 212 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 209 of 287 cases where PHM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PHM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.939) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (13.437) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.995) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.393) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
LGIH | PHM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 92 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 44 Fair valued | 75 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 30 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 87 | 57 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LGIH's Valuation (44) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (75). This means that LGIH’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (30) in the Homebuilding industry is significantly better than the same rating for LGIH (100). This means that PHM’s stock grew significantly faster than LGIH’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's SMR Rating (57) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LGIH (87). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to LGIH’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LGIH (62). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to LGIH’s over the last 12 months.
LGIH's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (10). This means that LGIH’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
| LGIH | PHM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 47% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 83% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 68% | 14 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 83% | 4 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 86% | 3 days ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LGIH’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PHM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- LGIH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PHM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LGIH’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PHM’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LGIH’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
- PHM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
LGIH (@Homebuilding) experienced а -9.39% price change this week, while PHM (@Homebuilding) price change was -4.14% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -4.19%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.00%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.62%.
Reported Earning Dates
LGIH is expected to report earnings on Feb 23, 2027.
PHM is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-4.19% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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LGIH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LGIH has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LGIH jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LGIH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGIH | 100% | +0.41% | ||
| MTH - LGIH | 80% Closely correlated | -0.51% | ||
| MHO - LGIH | 76% Closely correlated | +0.24% | ||
| DFH - LGIH | 76% Closely correlated | -3.18% | ||
| HOV - LGIH | 74% Closely correlated | -1.20% | ||
| PHM - LGIH | 73% Closely correlated | +0.09% | ||
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