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MP vs TMC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? MP Materials Corp. (MP) vs. TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MP Materials Corp. (MP) has outperformed with a 31.7% one-month gain and 33% year-to-date (YTD) return, compared to TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC)'s 17.7% monthly rise and mixed YTD figures around 16%.
- Both companies target critical minerals for electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy, but MP focuses on rare earth production from an operational U.S. mine, while TMC pursues deep-sea polymetallic nodules.
- MP's market cap exceeds $11.8 billion, dwarfing TMC's roughly $2.9 billion, signaling greater scale and investor confidence.
- Recent analyst upgrades bolster MP (e.g., Wedbush $90 target), while TMC advances permitting amid environmental scrutiny.
- Both remain unprofitable with negative EPS, highlighting speculative risks in the critical minerals sector.
Introduction
In the push for supply chain resilience amid the EV and renewable energy boom, investors eye critical minerals stocks like MP Materials Corp. (MP) and TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC). This comparison analyzes their business models, recent market positioning, and relative performance. Traders seeking exposure to rare earths or seafloor metals, and long-term investors betting on U.S.-led diversification from foreign dominance, will find value in understanding their contrasts. With both stocks volatile yet upward-trending in recent market activity, key insights emerge on momentum, risks, and growth catalysts.
MP Overview and Recent Performance
MP Materials Corp. (MP) is the leading U.S. producer of rare earth materials, operating the Mountain Pass mine in California—the only scaled rare earth mine and processing site in North America. The company spans mining, processing, and magnetics production for NdFeB permanent magnets used in EVs, wind turbines, and defense applications. Shares trade around $66.60, with a market cap over $11.8 billion and a 52-week range of $18.64–$100.25. In recent weeks, MP has surged about 32% in a month, driven by analyst initiations like Wedbush's Outperform rating with a $90 target and positive commentary on government support. Trading volume has elevated, reflecting sentiment shifts toward U.S. rare earth independence amid global supply concerns. Upcoming earnings add focus, though negative EPS underscores ongoing investments.
TMC Overview and Recent Performance
TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) specializes in deep-sea minerals exploration, targeting polymetallic nodules rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese from the Clarion-Clipperton Zone. These metals support EV batteries, steel production, and energy infrastructure. Shares hover near $5.20, with a $2.9 billion market cap and 52-week range of $2.81–$11.35. Recent market activity shows a 18% monthly gain, buoyed by NOAA's compliance approval for its U.S. mining application and Wedbush's reiterated Buy rating at $8. Heightened volume signals optimism around permitting progress and environmental data releases, though regulatory hurdles and exploration-stage risks temper gains. Negative EPS reflects pre-commercial status.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MP Materials Corp. (MP) boasts an operational asset base with integrated rare earth supply, contrasting TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC)'s exploration model reliant on seafloor tech and permits. Growth drivers differ: MP expands magnetics amid EV demand, while TMC eyes nodule commercialization for battery metals. Recent momentum favors MP with superior 1-month and YTD returns, versus TMC's steadier but lower gains. Risks include MP's exposure to China pricing and capex, and TMC's environmental/regulatory uncertainties. Both benefit from critical minerals sentiment, but MP's scale offers relative stability in sector volatility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models would likely favor MP Materials Corp. (MP) in the current environment, given its consistent upward trend, stronger relative performance, operational catalysts, and larger positioning amid materials demand. TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) shows promise via permitting milestones, but higher exploration risks and muted momentum suggest probabilistic caution. This assessment reflects observable data patterns as of recent trading.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MP is a Hold and TMC is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTMC’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- MP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TMC’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TMC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TMC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
MP (@Other Metals/Minerals) experienced а -9.14% price change this week, while TMC (@Other Metals/Minerals) price change was -4.91% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Metals/Minerals industry was +3.16%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +15.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was +55.65%.
Reported Earning Dates
MP is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
TMC is expected to report earnings on Aug 17, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Metals/Minerals (+3.16% weekly)The category includes companies that explore for, mine and extract metals, such as copper, diamonds, nickel, cobalt ore, lead, zinc and uranium. BHP, Rio Tinto and Southern Copper Corporation are major players in this space.
| MP | TMC | MP / TMC | |
| Capitalization | 10.9B | 2.35B | 464% |
| EBITDA | 29.5M | -291.32M | -10% |
| Gain YTD | 21.279 | -12.156 | -175% |
| P/E Ratio | 770.50 | N/A | - |
| Revenue | 254M | 0 | - |
| Total Cash | 1.74B | 116M | 1,498% |
| Total Debt | 1B | 2.48M | 40,355% |
MP | TMC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 70 | 34 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 98 Overvalued | 74 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 100 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TMC's Valuation (74) in the null industry is in the same range as MP (98). This means that TMC’s stock grew similarly to MP’s over the last 12 months.
MP's Profit vs Risk Rating (62) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TMC (100). This means that MP’s stock grew somewhat faster than TMC’s over the last 12 months.
MP's SMR Rating (92) in the null industry is in the same range as TMC (100). This means that MP’s stock grew similarly to TMC’s over the last 12 months.
MP's Price Growth Rating (40) in the null industry is in the same range as TMC (47). This means that MP’s stock grew similarly to TMC’s over the last 12 months.
MP's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for TMC (100). This means that MP’s stock grew significantly faster than TMC’s over the last 12 months.
| MP | TMC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 88% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 87% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 82% | 12 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 83% | 5 days ago 88% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 86% | 3 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 81% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| MFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| ARZMX | 14.80 | -0.20 | -1.33% |
| AMG River Road Small Cap Value Z | |||
| SLVIX | 44.78 | -0.63 | -1.39% |
| Columbia Select Large Cap Value Inst2 | |||
| RIGFX | 48.87 | -1.05 | -2.10% |
| American Funds Intl Gr and Inc R5 | |||
| TSCGX | 20.43 | -0.53 | -2.53% |
| Thrivent Small Cap Growth S | |||
| CIGCX | 20.91 | -0.76 | -3.51% |
| Calamos International Growth C | |||
MP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MP has been loosely correlated with USAR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MP jumps, then USAR could also see price increases.
TMC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TMC has been loosely correlated with FNUC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TMC jumps, then FNUC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TMC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMC | 100% | -5.08% | ||
| FNUC - TMC | 54% Loosely correlated | -4.42% | ||
| OMEX - TMC | 53% Loosely correlated | -6.09% | ||
| USAR - TMC | 52% Loosely correlated | -1.77% | ||
| MP - TMC | 50% Loosely correlated | +1.59% | ||
| NB - TMC | 50% Loosely correlated | -6.83% | ||
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