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MTSI vs NVMI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI) vs. Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MTSI and NVMI have delivered strong year-to-date gains exceeding 50%, driven by semiconductor demand in AI and data centers.
- MTSI recently reported Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings and revenue beats, with shares up over 30% in the past month amid data center momentum.
- NVMI shows robust YTD performance around 59%, supported by metrology solutions for advanced chip fabrication.
- MTSI exhibits higher recent momentum with YTD returns over 110%, outpacing the S&P 500 significantly.
- Semiconductor sector tailwinds favor both, but MTSI's diversified exposure to RF components gives it an edge in current AI infrastructure trends.
Introduction
This comparison examines MTSI and NVMI, two semiconductor firms capitalizing on AI-driven demand for advanced electronics and manufacturing precision. MTSI specializes in analog RF solutions, while NVMI provides metrology tools essential for chip production. Traders seeking short-term momentum and investors eyeing long-term sector growth will find value in analyzing their relative performance, recent catalysts, and market positioning amid ongoing semiconductor upcycles. This objective review highlights key contrasts in business models, momentum, and sentiment.
MTSI Overview and Recent Performance
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI) designs and manufactures analog semiconductors for RF, microwave, and optical applications in telecom, defense, and data centers. In recent market activity, MTSI shares have surged, posting YTD returns over 110% and monthly gains exceeding 36%, outperforming the S&P 500. This momentum stems from strong fiscal Q2 2026 results, with revenues of $289 million (up 22.5% YoY) and EPS of $1.09, beating estimates, fueled by data center optical demand and supply security initiatives. Sentiment has shifted positively on AI infrastructure tailwinds and defense exposure, though high valuations reflect elevated expectations.
NVMI Overview and Recent Performance
Nova Ltd. (NVMI) develops metrology and process control solutions for semiconductor manufacturing, enabling precise measurements in lithography, etch, and deposition. Recent weeks have seen steady gains, with YTD returns around 59% and 1-year performance near 179%, reflecting robust demand for advanced node controls. The stock trades near its 52-week high, supported by revenue growth to $881 million TTM (up 31%) and strong profitability. Key influences include AI chip complexity driving metrology needs, with upcoming Q1 2026 earnings anticipated to provide further visibility. Market sentiment remains favorable on stable demand from leading fabricators, balanced by sector cyclicality.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MTSI focuses on analog RF components for direct end-use in 5G, defense, and data center optics, contrasting NVMI’s upstream metrology enabling chip fabrication precision. Growth drivers overlap in AI: MTSI via optical interconnects, NVMI through advanced process controls. Recent momentum favors MTSI (YTD 110% vs. 59%), with higher market cap ($27B vs. $16B). Risk factors include cyclical exposure and high betas for both, but NVMI offers better ROE (23% vs. 13%) and cash position. Sentiment tilts to MTSI on earnings beats, while NVMI provides stability; trade-offs center on growth volatility versus margins.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors MTSI due to superior recent trend consistency, post-earnings momentum exceeding 30% monthly, and stronger relative positioning in AI data center catalysts versus NVMI’s steadier but less explosive path. Observable factors like revenue beats and diversified RF exposure suggest higher probabilistic outperformance in prevailing semiconductor conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTSI is a Hold and NVMI is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTSI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileNVMI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MTSI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NVMI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTSI’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVMI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTSI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NVMI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MTSI (@Semiconductors) experienced а +19.50% price change this week, while NVMI (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -4.40% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +8.51%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +47.26%, and the average quarterly price growth was +78.68%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +5.35%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +27.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was +132.80%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTSI is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
NVMI is expected to report earnings on May 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+8.51% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
@Electronic Production Equipment (+5.35% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
| MTSI | NVMI | MTSI / NVMI | |
| Capitalization | 27.7B | 15.7B | 176% |
| EBITDA | 276M | 276M | 100% |
| Gain YTD | 111.794 | 50.120 | 223% |
| P/E Ratio | 154.37 | 61.93 | 249% |
| Revenue | 1.07B | 881M | 122% |
| Total Cash | 665M | 1.05B | 63% |
| Total Debt | 377M | 799M | 47% |
MTSI | NVMI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 80 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 74 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 4 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 60 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 18 | 8 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVMI's Valuation (74) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as MTSI (86) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that NVMI’s stock grew similarly to MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NVMI (7) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that MTSI’s stock grew similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
NVMI's SMR Rating (41) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as MTSI (60) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that NVMI’s stock grew similarly to MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NVMI (37) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that MTSI’s stock grew similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
NVMI's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as MTSI (18) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that NVMI’s stock grew similarly to MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
| MTSI | NVMI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 69% | 9 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 73% |
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MTSI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTSI has been closely correlated with KLAC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTSI jumps, then KLAC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MTSI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSI | 100% | -0.85% | ||
| KLAC - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | -1.83% | ||
| LRCX - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | -2.30% | ||
| VECO - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | +0.41% | ||
| AMKR - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | -4.22% | ||
| AMAT - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | -2.80% | ||
More | ||||
NVMI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVMI has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVMI jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVMI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVMI | 100% | -6.28% | ||
| LRCX - NVMI | 78% Closely correlated | -2.30% | ||
| KLAC - NVMI | 78% Closely correlated | -1.83% | ||
| CAMT - NVMI | 76% Closely correlated | -15.83% | ||
| AMAT - NVMI | 74% Closely correlated | -2.80% | ||
| ASML - NVMI | 69% Closely correlated | -2.87% | ||
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