Advertisement
NSC vs UNP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Norfolk Southern (NSC) vs. Union Pacific (UNP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NSC is executing a multi-year efficiency turnaround, while UNP already holds the industry's best operating ratio (operating expenses as a share of revenue).
- Both railroads are navigating soft freight volumes and a competitive intermodal market, yet UNP posted record full-year net income of roughly $7.1 billion in 2025.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, profitability, and relative market positioning, the AI currently favors UNP over NSC.
- The two companies are pursuing a proposed merger that would create the first transcontinental U.S. railroad, making regulatory progress a shared catalyst and risk.
- For more detail on each company's headlines and intraday action, explore NSC Major News and NSC Today's Price Move, as well as UNP Major News and UNP Today's Price Move.
- To see how algorithmic strategies are positioning across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Norfolk Southern (NSC) and Union Pacific (UNP) are two of North America's largest freight railroads, and they invite a direct stock comparison for an unusual reason: the two are pursuing a proposed combination. This makes their relative performance, operating efficiency, and market positioning especially relevant to investors weighing which franchise offers the more attractive risk-reward profile today. Value-oriented and dividend-focused investors may favor the steadier, higher-return operator, while growth-minded traders may look to the turnaround momentum in NSC. Comparing the two clarifies how each stock is positioned in the current freight cycle.
NSC Overview and Recent Performance
Norfolk Southern operates a freight network spanning roughly 22 states in the eastern U.S., with particular strength in intermodal (the movement of containers between rail and truck or ship) and a diversified merchandise business across chemicals, agriculture, automotive, and metals. In recent quarters, management has focused on a "Precision Scheduled Railroading" (PSR) transformation—an operating model designed to improve service, safety, and asset utilization—alongside a broader productivity push it calls PSR 2.0. For full-year 2025, NSC reported railway operating revenue of about $12.2 billion and improved its operating ratio to 64.2% from 66.4% a year earlier, while diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose roughly 10%. Recent market activity has reflected softer freight volumes, particularly in intermodal and export coal, as well as merger-related competitive pressure. Management has responded with cost discipline and record safety results, framing the period as one of internal strengthening despite an uncertain demand backdrop.
UNP Overview and Recent Performance
Union Pacific operates a rail network across 23 western states, connecting customers to key ports and gateways and benefiting from broad exposure to bulk, industrial, and premium (intermodal) freight. The company has long emphasized operational excellence, and its adjusted operating ratio of roughly 59.3% for 2025 remains the industry's best. For the full year, UNP generated record net income of about $7.1 billion, with diluted EPS up roughly 8% year over year and return on invested capital (ROIC)—a measure of how efficiently a company generates profit from its capital—improving to about 16.3%. Like its eastern peer, UNP has faced declining volumes and a challenging intermodal environment in recent weeks, but it has offset these pressures through pricing discipline, productivity gains, and strong cash generation. The company has guided to mid-single-digit EPS growth for 2026 amid a muted economic outlook.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a library of hundreds of AI-powered trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each built around its own strategy, timeframe, risk profile, and performance history. Because market conditions change constantly, not every bot suits the current environment—so Tickeron curates a dedicated Trending AI Robots section featuring the strategies currently best aligned with prevailing trends. The bots in this list span diverse approaches, from short-term momentum and swing trading to longer-horizon trend following, with varied performance statistics and trade frequencies. Whether you are comparing railroads like NSC and UNP or scanning the broader market, exploring these curated strategies can offer a data-driven lens on where algorithmic signals are pointing today.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks lies in efficiency and scale. UNP is the larger and more profitable franchise, with roughly double the revenue base of NSC, a materially lower operating ratio, and a higher ROIC—evidence of a more mature, best-in-class operating model. NSC, by contrast, offers a more visible margin-improvement runway as its PSR 2.0 transformation matures, but its recent results have been more volatile, partly due to merger-related share shifts in intermodal and weaker coal pricing. On catalysts, both face the same overarching event: their proposed merger, which could reshape the competitive landscape but also introduces regulatory and integration uncertainty. Risk profiles differ as well—NSC carries more execution and competitive pressure in the near term, while UNP must defend its premium valuation and manage merger-related costs. In terms of market sentiment, UNP has generally been viewed as the steadier, higher-quality holding, whereas NSC is positioned as a turnaround story with greater upside sensitivity to operational progress.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing trend consistency, operating efficiency, profitability, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI currently leans toward UNP as the more favored of the two tickers. The signal reflects UNP's industry-leading operating ratio, superior return on invested capital, record earnings, and comparatively stable execution during a soft freight cycle. While NSC's ongoing transformation presents meaningful longer-term potential, its near-term momentum has been more uneven amid competitive and volume headwinds. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: the balance could shift if NSC's productivity gains translate into sustained margin expansion or if merger developments alter each stock's risk profile.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NSC is a Buy and UNP is a Buy.
NSC in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026
The 10-day moving average for NSC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
NSC moved above its 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.50% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NSC advanced for three days, in 195 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 140 of 272 cases where NSC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 51%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NSC moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 53%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NSC as a result. In 47 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NSC turned negative on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 23 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 45%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NSC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
NSC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 58, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NSC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.421) is normal, around the industry mean (3.853). P/E Ratio (27.252) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.910). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.695) is also within normal values, averaging (7.261). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.679) is also within normal values, averaging (3.592).
Momentum Indicator for UNP turns positive, indicating new upward trend
UNP saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on November 09, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 84 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 56 of the 84 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 35 of 60 cases where UNP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
UNP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for UNP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +3.60% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UNP advanced for three days, in 182 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 79 of 234 cases where UNP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 34%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for UNP moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 35 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UNP turned negative on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 19 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 43%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UNP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
UNP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. UNP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 58, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: UNP's P/B Ratio (8.338) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.853). P/E Ratio (23.457) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.910). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.721) is also within normal values, averaging (7.261). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. UNP's P/S Ratio (6.562) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.592).
NSC | UNP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 40 | 40 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 89 Overvalued | 91 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 46 | 32 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 52 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 29 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 18 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NSC's Valuation (89) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (91). This means that NSC’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Profit vs Risk Rating (32) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as NSC (46). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's SMR Rating (26) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as NSC (52). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Price Growth Rating (29) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as NSC (48). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
NSC's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (18). This means that NSC’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
| NSC | UNP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 43% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 52% | 6 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 34% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NSC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while UNP’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s).
- NSC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UNP’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NSC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UNP’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NSC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UNP’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
NSC (@Railroads) experienced а -3.42% price change this week, while UNP (@Railroads) price change was -0.93% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Railroads industry was +1.27%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.94%.
Reported Earning Dates
NSC is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
UNP is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Railroads (+1.27% weekly)The Railroad industry includes passenger and freight transportation services along rail lines. This also includes companies that provide maintenance and switching duties as part of rail services. Within North America, the industry is largely dominated by some large operators. Several short-line railroads serve regional and local routes. Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, and CSX Corporation are some of the prominent names in the business. The railroad business is relatively cyclical; economic expansion boost the freight services in particular, while economic stagnation often dampens transportation demand.
Advertisement
NSC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NSC has been closely correlated with UNP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 94% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NSC jumps, then UNP could also see price increases.
UNP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNP has been closely correlated with NSC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 94% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNP jumps, then NSC could also see price increases.