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NSC vs UNP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Norfolk Southern (NSC) vs. Union Pacific (UNP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both NSC and UNP are Class I freight railroads, but they operate largely complementary networks—Norfolk Southern anchors the eastern U.S., while Union Pacific dominates the West.
- The two companies are parties to a proposed merger that would create the first transcontinental U.S. railroad, a factor now shaping sentiment around both stocks.
- Union Pacific has posted stronger recent profitability, with an adjusted operating ratio near 60%, versus Norfolk Southern's roughly 69%.
- Norfolk Southern has navigated merger-related expenses and incident costs, while still holding its stock near 52-week highs.
- On a relative performance basis, UNP has outpaced NSC over the past year, though NSC trades at a higher valuation multiple.
Introduction
Investors tracking the freight and industrial sectors often compare NSC and UNP because these two railroads together span nearly the entire continental United States. Norfolk Southern operates a 22-state network concentrated in the East, while Union Pacific runs the largest rail network in North America, reaching 23 states in the West. Their proposed combination has made this stock comparison especially relevant, since the outcome of the merger review could reshape the competitive landscape of U.S. rail. This comparison is most useful for long-term investors assessing market positioning and relative performance, as well as traders monitoring sentiment and momentum across the transportation sector.
NSC Overview and Recent Performance
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) operates a freight network spanning 22 states, and holds the most extensive intermodal network in the eastern U.S., connecting major Atlantic, Gulf Coast, and Great Lakes ports. In recent quarters, the company has emphasized a disciplined operating strategy it calls PSR 2.0, centered on safety, service, and cost control. Recent financial results reflected a mixed backdrop: revenue was roughly flat year over year at about $3.0 billion, with a modest 1% decline in volume, while its adjusted operating ratio (operating expenses as a percentage of revenue) rose to approximately 68.7%. Merger-related expenses and the lingering effects of an earlier Ohio incident weighed on reported profitability. Despite these headwinds, the stock has traded near its 52-week high, and management has pointed to improving momentum exiting recent quarters as conditions normalized.
UNP Overview and Recent Performance
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) operates the largest railroad network in North America, spanning 23 states primarily across the western two-thirds of the country. In recent reporting periods, the company delivered record first-quarter operating revenue of about $6.2 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) near $2.93, with net income rising 5% year over year. Its adjusted operating ratio improved to roughly 59.9%, among the best in the industry. Operational efficiency has been a recurring theme, with improvements in freight car velocity, terminal dwell, and workforce productivity. The company has raised its full-year profit growth outlook and has drawn supportive analyst commentary, including recent price-target increases. Union Pacific's shares have gained more than 20% in 2026, though near-term momentum has moderated alongside broader macro and merger-review uncertainty.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between NSC and UNP lies in scale and profitability. Union Pacific generates roughly double Norfolk Southern's revenue and consistently reports a lower operating ratio, reflecting a larger, more efficient network. Norfolk Southern, by contrast, is smaller and more exposed to eastern industrial and intermodal traffic, and it has absorbed greater one-time cost pressure from merger and incident-related items.
Their growth drivers also differ. Union Pacific has leaned on pricing gains, bulk and industrial strength, and productivity, while Norfolk Southern has emphasized service recovery and cost discipline. Both face similar macro risks—including a soft freight environment, fuel-cost volatility, and tariff-related uncertainty—but their sector exposures diverge by geography. Market sentiment around the proposed transcontinental merger has been a shared catalyst, though the longer regulatory timeline has tempered near-term expectations. On valuation, NSC trades at a higher forward earnings multiple than UNP, a trade-off investors weigh against Union Pacific's stronger margin profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, profitability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor UNP at present. Union Pacific demonstrates a stronger combination of industry-leading operating ratio, record revenue, rising analyst price targets, and steadier relative momentum. Norfolk Southern carries a higher valuation and greater near-term earnings noise from merger and incident costs, which tends to reduce the consistency of its trend signal. That said, this is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive call—catalysts tied to the merger review could shift the balance between the two stocks in either direction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NSC is a Hold and UNP is a Hold.
NSC in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026
NSC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 22 of 35 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NSC as a result. In 52 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NSC just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where NSC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +3.89% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NSC advanced for three days, in 192 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NSC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
NSC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for NSC entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NSC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.534) is normal, around the industry mean (3.814). P/E Ratio (27.946) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.531). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.695) is also within normal values, averaging (7.261). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.679) is also within normal values, averaging (3.592).
UNP's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UNP turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where UNP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UNP as a result. In 51 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
UNP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UNP advanced for three days, in 179 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 79 of 234 cases where UNP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 34%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UNP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
UNP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UNP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: UNP's P/B Ratio (8.272) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.814). P/E Ratio (23.272) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.531). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.721) is also within normal values, averaging (7.261). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. UNP's P/S Ratio (6.562) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.592).
NSC | UNP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 41 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 31 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 52 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 22 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NSC's Valuation (90) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (90). This means that NSC’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as NSC (38). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's SMR Rating (26) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as NSC (52). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as NSC (47). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
NSC's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (22). This means that NSC’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
| NSC | UNP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 39% | 1 day ago 44% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 52% | 16 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 34% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NSC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while UNP’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- NSC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UNP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NSC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UNP’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NSC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- UNP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
NSC (@Railroads) experienced а +1.35% price change this week, while UNP (@Railroads) price change was +0.50% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Railroads industry was -0.49%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.09%.
Reported Earning Dates
NSC is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
UNP is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Railroads (-0.49% weekly)The Railroad industry includes passenger and freight transportation services along rail lines. This also includes companies that provide maintenance and switching duties as part of rail services. Within North America, the industry is largely dominated by some large operators. Several short-line railroads serve regional and local routes. Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, and CSX Corporation are some of the prominent names in the business. The railroad business is relatively cyclical; economic expansion boost the freight services in particular, while economic stagnation often dampens transportation demand.
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NSC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NSC has been closely correlated with UNP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 94% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NSC jumps, then UNP could also see price increases.
UNP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNP has been closely correlated with NSC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 94% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNP jumps, then NSC could also see price increases.