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NSC vs UNP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Norfolk Southern (NSC) vs. Union Pacific (UNP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both NSC and UNP delivered Q1 2026 earnings beats, but UNP posted record net income of $1.7 billion while NSC saw profits fall 27% due to uncollected insurance from a prior derailment.
- UNP outperforms year-to-date (YTD) with 16.77% gains versus NSC's 11.22%, reflecting stronger operational momentum.
- Ongoing merger discussions between the two railroads have supported sector sentiment, with revised applications on track for late April.
- UNP trades at a lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.12 compared to NSC's 25.06, suggesting relative value in the larger network operator.
- Recent weeks highlight UNP's efficiency gains, including best-ever terminal dwell times, amid rising fuel costs for both.
Introduction
Norfolk Southern (NSC) and Union Pacific (UNP), two leading Class I railroads, dominate freight transportation in the eastern and western U.S., respectively. This comparison examines their recent market performance, financial results, and strategic positioning amid merger talks and economic shifts. Investors tracking the industrials sector, particularly those focused on transportation infrastructure and supply chain resilience, will find insights into relative momentum, valuation, and risk factors in today's volatile environment.
NSC Overview and Recent Performance
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) operates an extensive rail network across 22 states in the Eastern U.S., transporting coal, intermodal freight, and chemicals. In recent market activity, NSC shares traded around $320, with a market capitalization of approximately $72 billion. Q1 2026 earnings showed adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.65, surpassing estimates, though revenue held flat at $3.0 billion and net profit declined 27% without expected insurance recoveries from the prior Ohio derailment. YTD performance reached 11.22%, influenced by merger speculation with UNP and a new short-line partnership enhancing Atlanta connectivity. Sentiment reflects operational productivity gains but pressures from fuel volatility and legacy incident costs.
UNP Overview and Recent Performance
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) manages North America's largest rail network, spanning 23 western states with focus on bulk commodities, intermodal, and industrial goods. Shares recently hovered near $269, backed by a $160 billion market cap. Q1 2026 results featured record net income of $1.7 billion and EPS of $2.87, beating forecasts, with revenue up 3.2% to $6.22 billion and operating ratio (OR, a measure of efficiency) at 60.5%. YTD gains hit 16.77%, propelled by terminal dwell improvements to 19.7 hours and reaffirmed mid-single-digit EPS growth guidance amid merger progress. Positive sentiment stems from volume growth and cost controls, tempered by fuel price risks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both NSC and UNP thrive on freight volume in a duopoly-like structure, but UNP's western dominance offers broader intermodal exposure versus NSC's eastern coal reliance. Growth drivers include merger synergies potentially creating a coast-to-coast network, though regulatory hurdles loom. Recent momentum favors UNP with superior YTD returns and revenue growth, while NSC contends with derailment overhangs. Risk factors like fuel costs and economic slowdowns affect both, but UNP's scale provides stability (lower P/E, higher ROE). Market sentiment tilts toward UNP post-earnings, with analyst upgrades, contrasting NSC's mixed reaction.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors UNP for its trend consistency, record Q1 profitability, operational efficiencies, and stronger YTD positioning amid merger tailwinds. While NSC shows resilience, UNP's relative stability and catalysts suggest higher probability of outperformance in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NSC is a StrongBuy and UNP is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NSC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileUNP’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- NSC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UNP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NSC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UNP’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NSC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 3 bearish.
- UNP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
NSC (@Railroads) experienced а +0.11% price change this week, while UNP (@Railroads) price change was -0.50% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Railroads industry was +1.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.57%.
Reported Earning Dates
NSC is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
UNP is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Railroads (+1.13% weekly)The Railroad industry includes passenger and freight transportation services along rail lines. This also includes companies that provide maintenance and switching duties as part of rail services. Within North America, the industry is largely dominated by some large operators. Several short-line railroads serve regional and local routes. Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, and CSX Corporation are some of the prominent names in the business. The railroad business is relatively cyclical; economic expansion boost the freight services in particular, while economic stagnation often dampens transportation demand.
| NSC | UNP | NSC / UNP | |
| Capitalization | 69.8B | 159B | 44% |
| EBITDA | 5.59B | 13.1B | 43% |
| Gain YTD | 8.594 | 16.827 | 51% |
| P/E Ratio | 26.18 | 22.01 | 119% |
| Revenue | 12.2B | 24.7B | 49% |
| Total Cash | 1.34B | 1.04B | 130% |
| Total Debt | 17.1B | 31.5B | 54% |
NSC | UNP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 22 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 65 | 53 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 50 | 23 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 30 | 25 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 19 | 46 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UNP's Valuation (82) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as NSC (85). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Profit vs Risk Rating (53) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as NSC (65). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's SMR Rating (23) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as NSC (50). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Price Growth Rating (25) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as NSC (30). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
NSC's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (46). This means that NSC’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
| NSC | UNP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 45% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 44% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 57% | 5 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 52% | 19 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 44% |
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NSC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NSC has been closely correlated with UNP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NSC jumps, then UNP could also see price increases.
UNP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNP has been closely correlated with NSC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNP jumps, then NSC could also see price increases.