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NSC vs UNP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Norfolk Southern (NSC) vs. Union Pacific (UNP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both NSC and UNP are major Class I railroads facing similar fuel cost pressures but benefiting from volume growth in recent quarters.
- The proposed UNP-NSC combination dominates recent news, with over 500 customers expressing support and regulatory review by the Surface Transportation Board (STB) advancing.
- UNP has delivered stronger year-to-date and one-year total returns compared to NSC, alongside an upgraded analyst rating from UBS.
- NSC reported record quarterly revenues in Q2 2026 but experienced a sharper recent pullback, with shares trading near $314-$318.
- UNP maintains a larger market capitalization and higher profitability margins, while both stocks offer dividend yields around 1.7-2.0%.
- Market sentiment reflects merger-related optimism tempered by short-term volume competition concerns and fuel surcharge dynamics.
Introduction
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) and Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) represent two of the largest publicly traded U.S. railroads, operating extensive networks that transport freight across the eastern and western regions, respectively. Investors and traders focused on the transportation sector, infrastructure themes, and merger arbitrage opportunities may find this comparison relevant amid ongoing regulatory developments and shifting freight demand patterns. The analysis examines recent performance metrics, business positioning, and observable market factors to highlight relative strengths and trade-offs in the current environment.
NSC Overview and Recent Performance
Norfolk Southern Corporation operates a rail network spanning 22 states in the eastern United States, handling merchandise, intermodal, and coal shipments. In recent weeks, NSC shares have traded around $314-$318, reflecting a one-month decline of approximately 9% amid broader market activity, though year-to-date returns remain positive near 10-12%. Q2 2026 results showed record railway operating revenues of $3.5 billion, up 11% year-over-year, driven by a 4% volume increase and fuel surcharges. Sentiment has been influenced by progress on the proposed combination with UNP, including customer endorsements and STB review advancements, alongside ongoing cost reduction initiatives and capital expenditure guidance of $1.9 billion for the year.
UNP Overview and Recent Performance
Union Pacific Corporation manages a transcontinental rail network primarily serving the western United States, with significant exposure to agricultural, energy, and intermodal traffic. UNP shares have recently traded near $279-$282, delivering stronger year-to-date returns of approximately 23-25% and one-year gains exceeding 30%. Q2 2026 delivered operating revenue of $6.9 billion, up 12% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share rising 13% and an improved full-year growth outlook. Recent market activity includes a UBS upgrade to Buy with a raised price target, supported by volume growth expectations and pricing power, while the proposed NSC combination continues to attract customer backing and regulatory attention.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
NSC and UNP share exposure to the rail transportation sector but differ in geographic focus, with NSC concentrated in the East and UNP dominating Western routes. Growth drivers for both include potential merger synergies and modal shifts from trucking amid elevated fuel costs, though UNP has demonstrated more consistent recent momentum through volume gains and analyst upgrades. Risk factors center on regulatory approval of the combination, expected potentially by late 2027, alongside short-term competitive pressures and fuel-related margin compression. UNP carries a larger market capitalization and typically higher operating margins, while NSC has shown resilience in merchandise and intermodal segments. Market sentiment favors the merger narrative for both, tempered by recent price volatility in NSC relative to UNP’s steadier performance trajectory.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including stronger year-to-date momentum, recent analyst upgrades, and consistent volume growth, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probability of relative outperformance to UNP over NSC in the near term. Trend consistency and positioning around the merger process support this probabilistic assessment, though outcomes remain subject to regulatory developments and broader economic conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NSC is a Hold and UNP is a Hold.
NSC | UNP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 60 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 51 | 47 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 52 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 16 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 16 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NSC's Valuation (86) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (87). This means that NSC’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Profit vs Risk Rating (47) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as NSC (51). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's SMR Rating (26) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as NSC (52). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Price Growth Rating (53) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as NSC (56). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
NSC's P/E Growth Rating (16) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (32). This means that NSC’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
| NSC | UNP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 8 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 40% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 59% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NSC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while UNP’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- NSC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UNP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NSC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UNP’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NSC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- UNP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
NSC (@Railroads) experienced а -0.93% price change this week, while UNP (@Railroads) price change was -0.60% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Railroads industry was -1.93%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.25%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.83%.
Reported Earning Dates
NSC is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
UNP is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Railroads (-1.93% weekly)The Railroad industry includes passenger and freight transportation services along rail lines. This also includes companies that provide maintenance and switching duties as part of rail services. Within North America, the industry is largely dominated by some large operators. Several short-line railroads serve regional and local routes. Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, and CSX Corporation are some of the prominent names in the business. The railroad business is relatively cyclical; economic expansion boost the freight services in particular, while economic stagnation often dampens transportation demand.
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NSC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NSC has been closely correlated with UNP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 94% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NSC jumps, then UNP could also see price increases.
UNP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNP has been closely correlated with NSC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 94% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNP jumps, then NSC could also see price increases.