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NSC vs UNP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Norfolk Southern (NSC) vs. Union Pacific (UNP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both NSC and UNP are major U.S. Class I railroads with similar business models focused on freight transportation.
- In recent market activity, UNP has shown stronger year-to-date performance compared to NSC.
- Both companies are scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 23, 2026, with analysts anticipating solid results amid stable freight demand.
- Market sentiment remains constructive for the rail sector, supported by broader economic indicators and operational efficiency improvements.
- Risk factors for both include regulatory oversight, fuel costs, and potential shifts in industrial shipping volumes.
- Relative positioning highlights trade-offs between NSC's eastern network focus and UNP's western routes with historically tighter operating margins.
Introduction
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) and Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) represent two leading players in the North American rail freight industry. This comparison examines their recent stock behavior, operational contexts, and relative positioning in the current market environment. Institutional investors, portfolio managers, and active traders monitoring transportation and logistics sectors may find the analysis relevant for assessing diversification opportunities or sector allocation decisions. The review draws on verifiable market data and developments to highlight contrasts without projecting future outcomes.
NSC Overview and Recent Performance
Norfolk Southern Corporation operates a major rail network primarily serving the eastern United States, transporting coal, intermodal containers, and industrial products. In recent weeks, the stock has traded near $340 levels, reflecting year-to-date gains of approximately 18-19%. Performance has been influenced by anticipation of second-quarter earnings and broader rail sector stability. Sentiment has remained measured, supported by consistent operational metrics and expectations for earnings that align with analyst forecasts around $3.23 per share. Market activity has shown resilience amid economic data points, though the shares have lagged some peers in recent momentum.
UNP Overview and Recent Performance
Union Pacific Corporation manages an extensive rail network across the western United States, handling similar freight categories with emphasis on intermodal and agricultural shipments. The stock has recently traded around $302, delivering stronger year-to-date advances near 31-32%. Recent market activity reflects solid investor interest ahead of the July 23 earnings release, with consensus expectations pointing to EPS growth. Sentiment benefits from the company's scale and historical efficiency advantages, contributing to outperformance relative to broader benchmarks in the period. Developments in freight volumes and cost management have supported a constructive tone without notable disruptions.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both companies share core exposure to the rail freight sector but differ in geographic focus, with NSC concentrated in the East and UNP dominating western corridors. Growth drivers include industrial production and intermodal trends, though UNP has posted comparatively stronger recent returns. Momentum favors UNP on a year-to-date basis, while risk profiles reflect similar sensitivities to fuel prices and regulatory matters from the Surface Transportation Board. Sector exposure remains balanced, yet market sentiment has tilted toward the larger western operator amid efficiency metrics. Trade-offs center on network reach versus operational scale in the current environment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency and relative positioning in recent market activity, Tickeron’s AI would likely assign a probabilistic edge to UNP over NSC at present. Stronger year-to-date performance and efficiency indicators contribute to this assessment, though both stocks face comparable earnings catalysts. The evaluation remains data-driven and subject to shifts with new information.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NSC is a Hold and UNP is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NSC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileUNP’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- NSC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UNP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NSC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UNP’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NSC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UNP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
NSC (@Railroads) experienced а -4.33% price change this week, while UNP (@Railroads) price change was -4.94% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Railroads industry was -4.57%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.54%.
Reported Earning Dates
NSC is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
UNP is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Railroads (-4.57% weekly)The Railroad industry includes passenger and freight transportation services along rail lines. This also includes companies that provide maintenance and switching duties as part of rail services. Within North America, the industry is largely dominated by some large operators. Several short-line railroads serve regional and local routes. Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, and CSX Corporation are some of the prominent names in the business. The railroad business is relatively cyclical; economic expansion boost the freight services in particular, while economic stagnation often dampens transportation demand.
| NSC | UNP | NSC / UNP | |
| Capitalization | 75.4B | 174B | 43% |
| EBITDA | 5.56B | 13.3B | 42% |
| Gain YTD | 17.214 | 27.608 | 62% |
| P/E Ratio | 28.62 | 23.65 | 121% |
| Revenue | 12.5B | 25.4B | 49% |
| Total Cash | 1.07B | 2.11B | 51% |
| Total Debt | 16.6B | 31.2B | 53% |
NSC | UNP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 87 | 89 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 43 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 52 | 25 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 28 | 18 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 29 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 35 | 45 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UNP's Valuation (85) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as NSC (86). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Profit vs Risk Rating (43) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as NSC (50). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's SMR Rating (25) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as NSC (52). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Price Growth Rating (18) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as NSC (28). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to NSC’s over the last 12 months.
NSC's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (29). This means that NSC’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
| NSC | UNP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 44% | 4 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 53% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 47% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 43% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 58% | 11 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 52% | 5 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 48% | 4 days ago 47% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 49% | 4 days ago 33% |
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NSC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NSC has been closely correlated with UNP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 94% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NSC jumps, then UNP could also see price increases.
UNP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNP has been closely correlated with NSC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNP jumps, then NSC could also see price increases.