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CSX vs UNP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CSX Corporation (CSX) vs. Union Pacific (UNP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CSX has delivered the strongest relative momentum of the major U.S. railroads in 2026, with record second-quarter revenue and double-digit earnings growth.
- UNP pairs a larger western network with an industry-leading operating ratio and is raising its 2026 earnings outlook.
- Both railroads are benefiting from a tightening truck market and elevated fuel prices, which push shippers to convert freight from highway to rail.
- UNP carries a distinct catalyst in its proposed merger with Norfolk Southern, while CSX is focused on internal efficiency and service recovery.
- The two stocks diverge in scale, geography, and near-term catalysts, creating different risk and reward profiles for traders and investors.
Introduction
CSX Corporation and Union Pacific Corporation are two of the largest publicly traded freight railroads in North America, and their stocks are frequently compared by investors evaluating the transportation sector. A stock comparison between CSX and UNP is useful because both companies operate in the same industry yet serve different geographies, carry different freight mixes, and face different strategic catalysts. This comparison is most relevant for investors who track cyclical industrial and transportation equities, as well as traders watching relative performance and market positioning during a period of elevated fuel costs and shifting freight demand.
CSX Overview and Recent Performance
CSX is a Jacksonville, Florida-based transportation company whose rail network spans roughly 26 eastern U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and parts of Canada, linking major population centers with ports and short-line railroads. In recent quarters, the company has been executing a turnaround after a difficult 2025 marked by severe weather, two simultaneous infrastructure projects, and softer freight conditions.
Recent market activity has favored the stock. In its second quarter, CSX reported record quarterly revenue of $3.94 billion, up 10% year over year, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) up 23% and volume rising 6% on broad-based growth led by intermodal. Operating margin expanded to 38.3%. Management has credited cost discipline, improved fuel efficiency, and freight conversions from truck to rail as key drivers of sentiment. Analysts have noted the company's improving execution under new leadership, with CSX described as the best-performing U.S. rail stock year to date.
UNP Overview and Recent Performance
UNP, or Union Pacific Corporation, is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, and operates the largest railroad in the western United States, serving 23 states and connecting customers to the global economy. Its network reaches key ports and intermodal hubs across the western half of the country.
In its most recent quarter, UNP delivered record financial results, with operating revenue up 12% to $6.9 billion, net income of $2.0 billion, and adjusted diluted EPS of $3.41, up 13% year over year. Freight revenue excluding fuel surcharges grew 4%, and the company's adjusted operating ratio (operating expenses as a percentage of revenue, where lower is better) came in at 59.2%. Management raised its 2026 EPS growth outlook to the high-single-digit range. The company continues to pursue a proposed merger with Norfolk Southern, a catalyst that has drawn notable investor and regulatory attention in recent months.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both companies are Class I freight railroads, their business models and market positioning differ in important ways. CSX is an eastern railroad with roughly $3.9 billion in quarterly revenue and a turnaround narrative centered on cost control, service improvement, and industrial development projects. UNP is larger, generating about $6.9 billion in quarterly revenue, and is focused on operational excellence, an industry-leading operating ratio, and the proposed Norfolk Southern merger.
Growth drivers also diverge. Both benefit from the shift of freight from truck to rail as trucking capacity tightens and fuel prices rise, but CSX has emphasized intermodal growth and newly opened infrastructure, while UNP has leaned on record domestic intermodal volumes and pricing that exceeds inflation. On the risk side, CSX faces execution risk as it rebuilds service metrics during a volume surge, whereas UNP carries regulatory and integration uncertainty tied to its merger pursuit. Market sentiment toward both stocks has improved, but their relative performance and catalyst profiles remain distinct.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely assign a modest edge to CSX on near-term momentum, given its stronger relative performance and accelerating earnings trajectory. At the same time, UNP presents a more established scale advantage, a superior operating ratio, and a clearly defined merger catalyst that could support longer-horizon positioning. In probabilistic terms, the AI model would favor CSX for momentum-oriented strategies while recognizing UNP as the steadier, more catalyst-driven alternative. The outcome depends on how each stock's trend signals and volatility profiles evolve in the coming weeks.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CSX is a Hold and UNP is a StrongBuy.
CSX | UNP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 60 | 56 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 46 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 39 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 34 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UNP's Valuation (87) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CSX (88). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to CSX’s over the last 12 months.
CSX's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (46). This means that CSX’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's SMR Rating (26) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CSX (39). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to CSX’s over the last 12 months.
CSX's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (52). This means that CSX’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
CSX's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (32). This means that CSX’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
| CSX | UNP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 46% | 7 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 59% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CSX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while UNP’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CSX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UNP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CSX’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UNP’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CSX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- UNP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
CSX (@Railroads) experienced а -1.44% price change this week, while UNP (@Railroads) price change was -1.23% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Railroads industry was -3.84%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.42%.
Reported Earning Dates
CSX is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
UNP is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Railroads (-3.84% weekly)The Railroad industry includes passenger and freight transportation services along rail lines. This also includes companies that provide maintenance and switching duties as part of rail services. Within North America, the industry is largely dominated by some large operators. Several short-line railroads serve regional and local routes. Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, and CSX Corporation are some of the prominent names in the business. The railroad business is relatively cyclical; economic expansion boost the freight services in particular, while economic stagnation often dampens transportation demand.
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CSX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CSX has been closely correlated with NSC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CSX jumps, then NSC could also see price increases.
UNP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNP has been closely correlated with NSC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 94% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNP jumps, then NSC could also see price increases.