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CSX vs UNP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CSX Corporation (CSX) vs. Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CSX has been the stronger near-term performer in 2026, outpacing UNP on the back of accelerating freight volumes and margin gains under new leadership.
- UNP is the larger, higher-margin operator, but its near-term narrative is dominated by a pending merger with Norfolk Southern and the regulatory uncertainty around it.
- Both railroads are benefiting from industry consolidation and resilient pricing power, a backdrop that has lifted the rail sector broadly.
- CSX trades at a richer valuation after its rally, while UNP offers a higher dividend yield and a steadier profitability profile.
- The comparison ultimately hinges on a trade-off between CSX's operational momentum and UNP's scale, income, and merger-driven catalyst.
Introduction
Railroads are among the most durable franchises in the industrial economy, protected by high barriers to entry, unmatched pricing power, and critical roles in North American supply chains. CSX and UNP are two of the largest publicly traded freight railroads, yet they have followed notably different paths in recent months. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing growth against stability, momentum against income, and a company executing on its core operations against one pursuing a transformative acquisition. Traders and long-term investors alike can use this relative performance analysis to better understand the market positioning of each name.
CSX Overview and Recent Performance
CSX Corporation operates a roughly 20,000-mile network across the eastern and southeastern United States and into Ontario and Quebec, moving merchandise, coal, and intermodal freight. Recent market activity has been notably favorable for the stock. Under Chief Executive Officer Steve Angel, who took the role in September 2025, the company has delivered a sharp improvement in its operating ratio (operating expenses as a percentage of revenue), a key efficiency metric for railroads.
In recent quarters, CSX reported double-digit revenue growth and meaningful gains in net income, supported by stronger intermodal volumes and firm pricing. The completion of infrastructure projects such as the Howard Street Tunnel in Baltimore and a new intermodal facility in Alabama have reinforced the company's long-term capacity story. The market has responded by pushing the shares substantially higher in 2026, though this has also lifted the valuation, leaving the stock trading at a premium to its own historical multiples. Sentiment remains constructive but increasingly focused on whether the operational momentum can sustain the price appreciation.
UNP Overview and Recent Performance
Union Pacific Corporation is the larger of the two railroads, operating about 32,000 miles of track across 23 western states and holding the only rail access to all six gateways between the United States and Mexico. Its scale and geographic reach give it a distinct competitive moat. Recent performance has been steady rather than spectacular: the company posted record first-quarter operating and net income, with adjusted EPS (earnings per share) rising high-single digits, and followed with stronger second-quarter results that featured double-digit revenue and earnings growth.
The dominant theme surrounding UNP, however, is its pending merger with Norfolk Southern, a transaction valued near $85 billion that remains in regulatory review. This deal has anchored investor attention and introduced meaningful event-driven uncertainty. The company has continued returning cash to shareholders, maintaining a long streak of uninterrupted dividends, while its adjusted operating ratio improved to roughly the high-50s range. Relative to CSX, UNP shares have advanced more modestly in recent months, reflecting a more balanced blend of income and merger-driven potential.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two railroads present a study in contrasts. CSX is smaller and nimbler, with its business concentrated in the eastern corridor and a recent catalyst in new leadership and rapid efficiency gains. Its growth drivers are primarily operational: volume recovery, intermodal expansion, and expense discipline. The trade-off is valuation; after a sharp run, CSX commands a higher forward P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple that leaves less margin for error.
UNP brings scale, a wider and more diversified revenue base, and a superior margin profile, but its near-term story is merger-driven. That introduces regulatory and execution risk alongside the potential for a transcontinental network spanning more than 50,000 miles. From a risk perspective, CSX is more exposed to eastern industrial and coal trends, while UNP's premium segments have shown some volume softness. On sentiment, the market has rewarded CSX's execution, while UNP's relative underperformance reflects caution around the pending combination and its timing.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor CSX in the current environment. Its trend consistency, improving operating efficiency, and positive earnings momentum align with the characteristics algorithmic models tend to reward, and its relative strength has been more pronounced in recent weeks. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than absolute: UNP offers greater scale, a higher dividend yield, and a defined catalyst in its merger, which could shift the balance if regulatory clarity improves. The AI's preference reflects momentum and stability now, with UNP positioned as the steadier, income-oriented alternative for a longer horizon.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CSX is a StrongBuy and UNP is a StrongBuy.
CSX in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026
The 10-day moving average for CSX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CSX as a result. In 53 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CSX just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where CSX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
CSX moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.91% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CSX advanced for three days, in 172 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 146 of 251 cases where CSX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CSX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
CSX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 59, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. CSX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CSX's P/B Ratio (6.839) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.926). P/E Ratio (30.227) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.853). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.682) is also within normal values, averaging (7.261). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.150) is also within normal values, averaging (3.592).
UNP in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
UNP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 36 of 50 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UNP as a result. In 46 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UNP just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where UNP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The 10-day moving average for UNP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +2.08% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UNP advanced for three days, in 181 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 79 of 234 cases where UNP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 34%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 18 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UNP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
UNP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. UNP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 59, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 92 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: UNP's P/B Ratio (8.736) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.926). P/E Ratio (24.576) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.853). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.721) is also within normal values, averaging (7.261). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. UNP's P/S Ratio (6.562) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.592).
CSX | UNP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 46 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 29 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 39 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 23 | 24 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 16 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UNP's Valuation (92) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CSX (93). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to CSX’s over the last 12 months.
CSX's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (29). This means that CSX’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's SMR Rating (26) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CSX (39). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to CSX’s over the last 12 months.
CSX's Price Growth Rating (23) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (24). This means that CSX’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's P/E Growth Rating (16) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CSX (17). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to CSX’s over the last 12 months.
| CSX | UNP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 29% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 48% | 25 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 34% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CSX’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while UNP’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s).
- CSX’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- UNP’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CSX’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UNP’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CSX’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- UNP’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CSX (@Railroads) experienced а +2.36% price change this week, while UNP (@Railroads) price change was +3.80% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Railroads industry was +1.40%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.88%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.47%.
Reported Earning Dates
CSX is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
UNP is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Railroads (+1.40% weekly)The Railroad industry includes passenger and freight transportation services along rail lines. This also includes companies that provide maintenance and switching duties as part of rail services. Within North America, the industry is largely dominated by some large operators. Several short-line railroads serve regional and local routes. Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, and CSX Corporation are some of the prominent names in the business. The railroad business is relatively cyclical; economic expansion boost the freight services in particular, while economic stagnation often dampens transportation demand.
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CSX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CSX has been loosely correlated with CP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CSX jumps, then CP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CSX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSX | 100% | -0.48% | ||
| CP - CSX | 65% Loosely correlated | +1.48% | ||
| WAB - CSX | 38% Loosely correlated | -2.09% | ||
| GBX - CSX | 36% Loosely correlated | +1.25% | ||
| RAIL - CSX | 20% Poorly correlated | -0.24% | ||
| FSTR - CSX | 18% Poorly correlated | -1.48% | ||
More | ||||
UNP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNP has been closely correlated with NSC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 94% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNP jumps, then NSC could also see price increases.