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CP vs UNP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) vs. Union Pacific (UNP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different scale, same sector: UNP is the larger North American railroad by market capitalization, while CP runs a unique Canada–U.S.–Mexico network.
- Momentum favors UNP: UNP has delivered back-to-back earnings beats and record quarterly results, while CP recently missed estimates amid commodity headwinds.
- Valuation gap: CP trades at a higher earnings multiple but a lower dividend yield than UNP.
- Distinct catalysts: UNP carries an ongoing merger with Norfolk Southern, while CP leans on cross-border growth and shareholder returns.
Introduction
Both CP and UNP are Class I freight railroads, the backbone of North American supply chains, yet they occupy very different positions in the transportation sector. Canadian Pacific Kansas City operates a transcontinental network spanning Canada, the United States, and Mexico, while Union Pacific dominates the western two-thirds of the U.S. For investors and traders weighing relative performance, market positioning, and risk exposure, this stock comparison highlights how two leading railroads can diverge on growth drivers, valuation, and momentum. The contrast is especially relevant for those seeking a balance between defensive cash-generative businesses and exposure to cyclical freight demand.
CP Overview and Recent Performance
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) is a transcontinental freight railway moving bulk commodities, merchandise, and intermodal traffic across Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. Its three-country footprint is a structural differentiator, positioning the company to benefit from cross-border trade and truck-to-rail conversion opportunities.
In recent weeks, CP has shown mixed momentum. Its latest quarterly results missed analyst expectations, with earnings per share (EPS, or profit allocated to each share) and revenue coming in slightly below consensus. Freight revenue declined even as volumes grew on a revenue-ton-mile (RTM, a measure of freight moved one ton one mile) basis, reflecting lower yields. Grain shipments set records, but coal, forest products, and energy-related freight softened, partly due to tariffs on Canadian lumber and customer production issues.
Management has responded with a larger share buyback program, a double-digit dividend increase, and reduced capital spending, signaling confidence in cash generation. The stock trades near the middle of its 52-week range, reflecting a balance between cross-border growth potential and near-term commodity headwinds.
UNP Overview and Recent Performance
Union Pacific (UNP) is the largest publicly traded U.S. railroad by market capitalization, operating roughly 32,000 miles of track across the western two-thirds of the country. Its freight mix spans bulk, industrial, and premium (intermodal and automotive) categories.
Recent market activity has favored UNP. The company posted record first-quarter revenue, operating income, net income, and freight revenue, with EPS beating consensus for the third time in four quarters. Its adjusted operating ratio (operating expenses as a percentage of revenue, where lower is better) improved to roughly 60%, reflecting strong productivity gains in locomotive, workforce, and fuel efficiency. Bulk revenue rose double digits on grain, fertilizer, and coal, while premium volumes slipped on weaker intermodal demand.
Beyond operations, UNP is pursuing a proposed combination with Norfolk Southern, a catalyst that has drawn both analyst upgrades and regulatory scrutiny. The stock has outperformed the broader market over the past several months, supported by pricing power and cost discipline.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two railroads is scale and valuation. UNP commands a market capitalization more than twice that of CP, yet trades at a lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and offers a higher dividend yield. CP, by comparison, carries a premium multiple that reflects its unique North American network and longer runway for cross-border growth.
On growth drivers, CP leans on grain, potash, and automotive volumes plus a developing Mexico corridor, while UNP leans on industrial and bulk strength and aggressive efficiency gains. Risk factors differ too: CP is exposed to Canadian dollar volatility, tariffs, and commodity cyclicality, whereas UNP faces merger-related uncertainty and premium/intermodal softness.
In terms of market sentiment, UNP has enjoyed more favorable earnings revisions and stronger recent share price performance, while CP has seen analysts trim targets even as many maintain Buy ratings.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings momentum, and catalyst positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor UNP in the current environment. The stock's repeated earnings beats, improving operating ratio, and constructive analyst revisions suggest more stable near-term positioning than CP, which is navigating commodity headwinds and yield pressure. That said, CP retains a differentiated cross-border growth story that could reassert itself if volumes and pricing recover. The AI signal tilts toward UNP on a probability-weighted basis, though relative positioning could shift as new earnings and freight data arrive.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CP is a Buy and UNP is a StrongBuy.
CP in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026
CP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 36 of 55 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CP as a result. In 45 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CP just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where CP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
The 10-day moving average for CP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +3.53% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CP advanced for three days, in 167 of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 94 of 246 cases where CP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 38%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CP moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 33 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 73%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
CP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 58, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.768) is normal, around the industry mean (3.921). P/E Ratio (21.754) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.118). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.219) is also within normal values, averaging (7.261). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.024) among similar stocks. CP's P/S Ratio (7.087) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.592).
UNP in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
UNP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 34 of 50 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UNP just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where UNP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 23 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The 10-day moving average for UNP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +1.68% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UNP advanced for three days, in 181 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 79 of 234 cases where UNP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 34%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for UNP moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 18 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 50%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 22 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UNP as a result. In 36 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 43%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UNP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
UNP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. UNP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 58, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 92 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: UNP's P/B Ratio (8.562) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.921). P/E Ratio (24.087) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.118). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.721) is also within normal values, averaging (7.261). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.024) among similar stocks. UNP's P/S Ratio (6.562) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.592).
CP | UNP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 41 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 33 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 76 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 21 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 15 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CP's Valuation (86) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (92). This means that CP’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Profit vs Risk Rating (33) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CP (42). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to CP’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's SMR Rating (26) in the Railroads industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CP (76). This means that UNP’s stock grew somewhat faster than CP’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Price Growth Rating (21) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CP (42). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to CP’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CP (46). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to CP’s over the last 12 months.
| CP | UNP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 43% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 4 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 54% | 5 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 57% | about 1 month ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 38% | 2 days ago 34% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CP’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while UNP’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s).
- CP’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- UNP’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CP’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UNP’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CP’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- UNP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CP (@Railroads) experienced а +6.10% price change this week, while UNP (@Railroads) price change was -1.32% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Railroads industry was +0.74%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.31%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.33%.
Reported Earning Dates
CP is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
UNP is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Railroads (+0.74% weekly)The Railroad industry includes passenger and freight transportation services along rail lines. This also includes companies that provide maintenance and switching duties as part of rail services. Within North America, the industry is largely dominated by some large operators. Several short-line railroads serve regional and local routes. Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, and CSX Corporation are some of the prominent names in the business. The railroad business is relatively cyclical; economic expansion boost the freight services in particular, while economic stagnation often dampens transportation demand.
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UNP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNP has been closely correlated with NSC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 94% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNP jumps, then NSC could also see price increases.