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CP vs UNP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) vs. Union Pacific (UNP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CP and UNP are leading North American railroad operators with strong year-to-date performance exceeding broader market indices in recent market activity.
- CP benefits from its expanded three-nation network, highlighted by record grain volumes in recent weeks, while UNP shows momentum from analyst upgrades and proposed merger developments.
- Recent quarterly results for both companies demonstrate revenue growth, though UNP posted more consistent earnings beats amid pricing power and volume gains.
- Market sentiment reflects pullbacks for both stocks from summer highs, with CP trading near $89 and UNP near $280 as of mid-to-late September 2026.
- Key contrasts include CP’s cross-border synergies versus UNP’s domestic scale and potential transcontinental expansion.
- Relative positioning favors stability and catalysts for UNP in the current environment based on observable trend and analyst activity.
Introduction
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) and Union Pacific (UNP) represent two prominent players in the North American rail sector, offering investors exposure to freight transportation, logistics efficiency, and economic cycles. This comparison examines their business models, recent performance trends, and market positioning to assist traders and long-term investors evaluating relative opportunities within the industrials space. Participants in railroad equities, sector rotation strategies, or those monitoring supply-chain indicators may find the analysis particularly relevant amid evolving freight demand and regulatory developments.
CP Overview and Recent Performance
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited operates an extensive rail network spanning Canada, the United States, and Mexico following its merger integration. The company focuses on bulk commodities, intermodal shipments, and automotive traffic, leveraging precision scheduled railroading for operational efficiency. In recent weeks, CP achieved a new monthly record for Canadian grain and grain products hauled in August 2026, underscoring demand strength along its cross-border corridors. Second-quarter 2026 results showed revenue growth of approximately 13% year-over-year, supported by volume increases, though reported earnings per share declined modestly. The stock has experienced a pullback from recent highs, with year-to-date returns around 21-22% amid broader market activity and sector dynamics.
UNP Overview and Recent Performance
Union Pacific Corporation provides freight rail services across the western two-thirds of the United States, emphasizing intermodal, agricultural, energy, and industrial products. The operator maintains a focus on service reliability and cost management. Recent market activity includes solid second-quarter 2026 results with revenue rising about 12% year-over-year and adjusted earnings per share beating estimates, driven by volume growth and pricing gains. UNP received a Buy upgrade from UBS in mid-September 2026, citing stronger growth outlook, alongside advancing customer support for a proposed combination with Norfolk Southern. The shares have eased from July peaks but delivered year-to-date gains near 22-28%, reflecting resilience amid fuel cost shifts favoring rail over trucking.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CP and UNP both operate within the railroads industry but differ in geographic scope and growth vectors. CP’s integrated North American network provides unique cross-border exposure and synergy realization post-merger, supporting commodity-focused volumes such as grain. In contrast, UNP benefits from larger domestic scale and potential efficiencies from a proposed merger that could enhance transcontinental reach. Recent momentum shows UNP with more visible analyst support and merger-related catalysts, while CP highlights operational records in bulk segments. Risk factors include regulatory scrutiny for UNP’s combination plans and integration execution for CP, alongside shared exposure to economic cycles and fuel price fluctuations. Market sentiment remains constructive for both, with UNP exhibiting slightly stronger relative positioning in recent trading periods.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings delivery, and emerging catalysts, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a modest probabilistic edge to UNP. Stronger volume trends, recent analyst upgrades, and merger optionality contribute to more stable momentum signals compared with CP’s solid but narrower commodity-driven records. This assessment reflects relative positioning rather than certainty and should be evaluated alongside individual risk tolerance and portfolio objectives.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CP is a Hold and UNP is a Hold.
CP's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CP turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where CP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CP's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CP as a result. In 46 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +1.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CP advanced for three days, in 169 of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
CP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for CP crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 6 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 33%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator for CP entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.310) is normal, around the industry mean (4.638). P/E Ratio (28.496) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.129). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.219) is also within normal values, averaging (7.261). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. CP's P/S Ratio (7.087) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.592).
UNP's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UNP turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where UNP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UNP as a result. In 57 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
UNP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +0.91% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UNP advanced for three days, in 181 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for UNP crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UNP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
UNP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for UNP entered a downward trend on September 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to good earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UNP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.874) is normal, around the industry mean (4.638). P/E Ratio (22.194) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.129). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.721) is also within normal values, averaging (7.261). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. UNP's P/S Ratio (6.562) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.592).
CP | UNP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 28 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 49 | 33 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 76 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UNP's Valuation (87) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CP (90). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to CP’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Profit vs Risk Rating (33) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CP (49). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to CP’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's SMR Rating (26) in the Railroads industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CP (76). This means that UNP’s stock grew somewhat faster than CP’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CP (52). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to CP’s over the last 12 months.
CP's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (32). This means that CP’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
| CP | UNP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 57% | 10 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 45% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 44% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while UNP’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- CP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UNP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UNP’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- UNP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
CP (@Railroads) experienced а +3.43% price change this week, while UNP (@Railroads) price change was +3.84% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Railroads industry was -0.44%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.70%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.38%.
Reported Earning Dates
CP is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
UNP is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Railroads (-0.44% weekly)The Railroad industry includes passenger and freight transportation services along rail lines. This also includes companies that provide maintenance and switching duties as part of rail services. Within North America, the industry is largely dominated by some large operators. Several short-line railroads serve regional and local routes. Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, and CSX Corporation are some of the prominent names in the business. The railroad business is relatively cyclical; economic expansion boost the freight services in particular, while economic stagnation often dampens transportation demand.
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CP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CP has been closely correlated with CNI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CP jumps, then CNI could also see price increases.