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CNI vs UNP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Canadian National Railway (CNI) vs. Union Pacific (UNP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CNI and UNP are leading Class I railroads with similar exposure to North American freight volumes, though UNP operates primarily in the U.S. while CNI spans Canada and the U.S.
- Both stocks delivered strong second-quarter 2026 results, with earnings beats and raised full-year guidance amid volume growth in grain, energy, and intermodal segments.
- Recent market activity shows CNI trading near $119 after pulling back from a July high above $131, while UNP hovers around $280 following a retreat from peaks near $316.
- UNP benefits from recent analyst upgrades and customer support for a proposed combination with Norfolk Southern, adding a distinct catalyst not present for CNI.
- Relative performance remains close year-to-date, with both names posting gains of approximately 22-28% amid broader rail sector stability.
- Risk factors include fuel cost pressures and regulatory scrutiny on industry consolidation, balanced by pricing power and operational efficiency improvements for each operator.
Introduction
Canadian National Railway (CNI) and Union Pacific (UNP) represent two of North America's premier railroad operators, making them natural benchmarks for investors seeking exposure to the industrials sector. This comparison examines their business models, recent performance trends, and relative positioning in the current market environment. Traders and long-term investors focused on transportation infrastructure, freight volumes, and sector rotation may find the analysis useful for portfolio construction or tactical allocation decisions. The review draws on observable data from earnings reports, analyst commentary, and price action over recent weeks to highlight contrasts without forward-looking speculation.
CNI Overview and Recent Performance
Canadian National Railway (CNI) operates an extensive rail network across Canada and into the United States, transporting intermodal containers, grain, fertilizers, petroleum, chemicals, and other commodities. In recent market activity, the stock has traded near $119 following a pullback from its July peak above $131. Second-quarter 2026 results featured an adjusted earnings per share beat and revenue growth of 11% on a foreign-exchange adjusted basis, prompting management to raise full-year guidance to low single-digit revenue ton mile growth and mid- to high-single-digit adjusted diluted earnings per share growth. Strong grain and energy volumes supported performance, while record fuel efficiency metrics contributed to operational stability. Sentiment has remained constructive amid consistent execution, though broader market rotation has tempered near-term price momentum.
UNP Overview and Recent Performance
Union Pacific (UNP) provides freight rail services across the western and central United States, with key segments including intermodal, agricultural products, energy, and industrial goods. The shares have recently traded around $280 after easing from July highs near $316. Second-quarter 2026 results showed revenue of approximately $6.9 billion, up 12% year over year, alongside an adjusted earnings per share beat and an operating ratio near 59%. Management improved its earnings outlook, citing volume growth and pricing power. Additional developments include customer endorsements for a proposed combination with Norfolk Southern and an analyst upgrade to Buy, which have influenced sentiment. Fuel cost dynamics have also supported rail competitiveness versus trucking in recent weeks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Canadian National Railway (CNI) and Union Pacific (UNP) share core exposure to North American rail freight, yet differ in geographic reach and scale. UNP commands a larger market capitalization and operates exclusively within the United States, while CNI benefits from cross-border diversification. Growth drivers for both include volume recovery in grain and energy, though UNP has additional visibility from merger-related developments. Recent momentum favors UNP due to analyst upgrades and customer backing for industry consolidation. Risk factors such as fuel price volatility and regulatory oversight apply similarly, yet CNI may exhibit slightly lower beta to U.S.-specific economic cycles. Market sentiment reflects comparable year-to-date gains, with trade-offs centering on diversification versus concentrated U.S. exposure and the presence of near-term catalysts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, earnings delivery, and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a modestly higher probabilistic preference to UNP. The stock’s combination of volume growth, pricing power, and external catalysts such as merger support and recent analyst upgrades provide a clearer near-term setup compared with CNI’s more steady but less differentiated profile. This assessment remains probabilistic and subject to evolving market data rather than a definitive ranking.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CNI is a Hold and UNP is a StrongBuy.
CNI | UNP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 88 | 10 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 44 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 44 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 22 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CNI's Valuation (86) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (87). This means that CNI’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Profit vs Risk Rating (44) in the Railroads industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CNI (100). This means that UNP’s stock grew somewhat faster than CNI’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's SMR Rating (26) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CNI (44). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to CNI’s over the last 12 months.
CNI's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (49). This means that CNI’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
CNI's P/E Growth Rating (22) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (32). This means that CNI’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
| CNI | UNP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 53% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 42% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 51% | 9 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 59% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CNI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while UNP’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CNI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UNP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CNI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UNP’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CNI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UNP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CNI (@Railroads) experienced а -0.96% price change this week, while UNP (@Railroads) price change was +1.64% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Railroads industry was -1.91%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.24%, and the average quarterly price growth was +15.09%.
Reported Earning Dates
CNI is expected to report earnings on Oct 30, 2026.
UNP is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Railroads (-1.91% weekly)The Railroad industry includes passenger and freight transportation services along rail lines. This also includes companies that provide maintenance and switching duties as part of rail services. Within North America, the industry is largely dominated by some large operators. Several short-line railroads serve regional and local routes. Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, and CSX Corporation are some of the prominent names in the business. The railroad business is relatively cyclical; economic expansion boost the freight services in particular, while economic stagnation often dampens transportation demand.
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CNI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CNI has been closely correlated with CP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CNI jumps, then CP could also see price increases.
UNP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNP has been closely correlated with NSC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 94% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNP jumps, then NSC could also see price increases.