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CNI vs UNP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Canadian National Railway (CNI) vs. Union Pacific (UNP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CNI delivered stronger recent operating-ratio improvement and double-digit earnings growth, while UNP posted a quarterly earnings miss driven by weaker volume.
- Both railroads face a subdued freight-demand environment, but CNI is more exposed to tariff and cross-border trade uncertainty, whereas UNP carries merger-related risk.
- UNP offers a larger domestic U.S. network and a pending Norfolk Southern combination, a key structural catalyst that CNI does not have.
- Both companies emphasize efficiency, pricing discipline, and shareholder returns, with each raising dividends and maintaining capital-return programs.
- Relative performance has favored UNP in recent weeks, reflecting a risk-on response to merger progress despite mixed quarterly results.
Introduction
Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) and Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) are two of North America's largest Class I railroads, yet they operate in meaningfully different markets and face distinct catalysts. This stock comparison examines their recent relative performance, market positioning, and outlooks to help traders and investors assess which franchise may offer the more compelling risk-reward profile. Because both names sit in the same freight-rail sector but diverge on geography, growth drivers, and event risk, the comparison is especially relevant for those weighing stability against transformational upside.
CNI Overview and Recent Performance
Canadian National Railway operates a network spanning Canada from coast to coast and extending south through Chicago to the Gulf of Mexico, making it a uniquely transcontinental and three-coast franchise. For the fourth quarter of 2025, CNI reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth of roughly 14% and a 2% rise in revenue, while its adjusted operating ratio (operating expenses as a percentage of revenue) improved by 250 basis points to 60.1%. For the full year, adjusted EPS rose about 7% and the operating ratio improved to 61.7%.
Sentiment in recent weeks has been shaped by management's cautious 2026 outlook. The company guided to roughly flat revenue ton miles (RTMs, a measure of freight volume), with EPS expected to grow only slightly faster than volumes, and trimmed its capital plan to about C$2.8 billion. Tariff and trade uncertainty reduced 2025 revenue by more than C$350 million, pressuring forest products and metals. Offsetting this, CNI announced a 3% dividend increase, its 30th consecutive annual raise, and a new share buyback authorization of up to 24 million shares.
UNP Overview and Recent Performance
Union Pacific operates across 23 western U.S. states, connecting customers to the broader global economy through a predominantly domestic freight network. For the fourth quarter of 2025, UNP reported net income of $1.8 billion and diluted EPS of $3.11, though adjusted EPS of $2.86 missed consensus estimates and declined slightly year over year as revenue slipped 1% and carloads fell 4%. For the full year, net income rose 6% to a record $7.1 billion, and diluted EPS grew 8% to $11.98.
Recent market activity has centered on UNP's pending acquisition of Norfolk Southern, which would create the nation's first transcontinental railroad. This strategic catalyst has supported the shares in recent weeks even as quarterly results disappointed on volume. Management guided to mid-single-digit EPS growth in 2026, consistent with a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) target in the high-single-digit to low-double-digit range through 2027, alongside a roughly $3.3 billion capital plan and continued dividend increases.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
On a business-model basis, both companies are capital-intensive Class I railroads whose profitability depends heavily on operating leverage, pricing power, and network efficiency. The key contrasts are geographic and strategic. CNI derives meaningful exposure to Canadian natural resources, including grain, potash, and petroleum, and is uniquely sensitive to U.S.–Canada trade policy and tariffs. UNP is more domestically oriented, with exposure to western U.S. industrial production, agriculture, and intermodal volumes.
On recent momentum, UNP has outperformed in the short term, with shares advancing notably since its latest earnings report despite the miss, as investors weighed merger upside. CNI has shown steadier operational improvement, with a better sequential operating-ratio trajectory, but faces flat-volume guidance and tariff overhang. Risk factors also diverge: UNP carries merger-integration and regulatory-approval risk, while CNI carries cross-border policy and commodity-mix risk.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor UNP in the current environment. Its recent relative momentum, consistent uptrend, and a distinct structural catalyst in the Norfolk Southern merger provide stronger trend signals than CNI's more defensive but volume-constrained profile. That said, CNI presents a more stable, efficiency-driven story with superior recent operating-ratio gains. The AI verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: the tilt toward UNP reflects momentum and catalyst positioning, while acknowledging that CNI offers greater operational stability and less event risk.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CNI is a Buy and UNP is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for CNI turns positive, indicating new upward trend
CNI saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 107 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 50 of the 107 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 47%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CNI's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 10 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 37%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CNI just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where CNI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 44%.
CNI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.03% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CNI advanced for three days, in 125 of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 40%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CNI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
CNI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CNI entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 37 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CNI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 79 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.446) is normal, around the industry mean (3.814). P/E Ratio (16.037) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.531). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.437) is also within normal values, averaging (7.261). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.747) is also within normal values, averaging (3.592).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CNI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock worse than average.
UNP's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UNP turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where UNP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UNP as a result. In 51 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
UNP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UNP advanced for three days, in 179 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 79 of 234 cases where UNP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 34%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UNP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
UNP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UNP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: UNP's P/B Ratio (8.566) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.814). P/E Ratio (24.098) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.531). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.721) is also within normal values, averaging (7.261). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. UNP's P/S Ratio (6.562) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.592).
CNI | UNP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 41 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 79 Overvalued | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 85 | 31 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 44 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 22 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 37 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CNI's Valuation (79) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as UNP (90). This means that CNI’s stock grew similarly to UNP’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Railroads industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CNI (85). This means that UNP’s stock grew somewhat faster than CNI’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's SMR Rating (26) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CNI (44). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to CNI’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Railroads industry is in the same range as CNI (46). This means that UNP’s stock grew similarly to CNI’s over the last 12 months.
UNP's P/E Growth Rating (22) in the Railroads industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CNI (59). This means that UNP’s stock grew somewhat faster than CNI’s over the last 12 months.
| CNI | UNP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 37% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 51% | 17 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 34% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CNI’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while UNP’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- CNI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- UNP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CNI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UNP’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CNI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- UNP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CNI (@Railroads) experienced а +3.47% price change this week, while UNP (@Railroads) price change was +3.25% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Railroads industry was -1.18%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.58%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.96%.
Reported Earning Dates
CNI is expected to report earnings on Oct 30, 2026.
UNP is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Railroads (-1.18% weekly)The Railroad industry includes passenger and freight transportation services along rail lines. This also includes companies that provide maintenance and switching duties as part of rail services. Within North America, the industry is largely dominated by some large operators. Several short-line railroads serve regional and local routes. Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, and CSX Corporation are some of the prominent names in the business. The railroad business is relatively cyclical; economic expansion boost the freight services in particular, while economic stagnation often dampens transportation demand.
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CNI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CNI has been closely correlated with CP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CNI jumps, then CP could also see price increases.
UNP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNP has been closely correlated with NSC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 94% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNP jumps, then NSC could also see price increases.