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NTRS vs RJF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Northern Trust (NTRS) vs. Raymond James Financial (RJF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Northern Trust (NTRS) skews toward institutional asset servicing and custody, while Raymond James Financial (RJF) is anchored in advisor-led wealth management and capital markets.
- NTRS has shown stronger recent share-price momentum, touching an all-time high, whereas RJF has pulled back from prior peaks.
- Both firms recently reported double-digit revenue growth and solid profitability, but both also cite rising expenses as a key headwind.
- Analyst sentiment diverges: RJF carries a consensus "Buy/Overweight" rating, while NTRS is generally rated "Hold."
- The stocks trade at broadly comparable valuation multiples, making growth durability and business mix the central differentiators.
Introduction
Northern Trust and Raymond James Financial are two of the most recognizable names in U.S. financial services, yet they serve very different corners of the market. Northern Trust is a custodian and asset servicer for institutions and high-net-worth clients, while Raymond James is a wealth management and capital markets franchise built around a nationwide network of financial advisors. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a defensive, fee-and-interest-driven custodian against a more cyclical, capital-markets-exposed broker-dealer. Understanding their relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning can help traders and investors decide which profile better fits the current environment.
NTRS Overview and Recent Performance
NTRS — Northern Trust Corporation — is a financial holding company providing wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions. Its scale is substantial: total assets under custody (AUC, the value of client assets the firm safekeeps and administers) reached roughly $14.8 trillion in its most recent quarter, while assets under management (AUM) approached $1.8 trillion.
Recent market activity has favored the stock. NTRS touched an all-time high earlier this year and has meaningfully outperformed its industry over the trailing year. Recent quarterly results showed net income rising by about a third year over year, supported by higher net interest income (NII, the earnings a bank generates from lending and investing activities) and double-digit growth in trust and servicing fees. The firm has sharpened its focus on higher-growth, fee-based businesses, divesting non-core operations and expanding distribution of tax-managed direct indexing through a partnership with Envestnet. Elevated expenses and a planned CFO transition are among the near-term considerations investors are watching.
RJF Overview and Recent Performance
RJF — Raymond James Financial, Inc. — operates across four segments: Private Client Group (PCG), Capital Markets, Asset Management, and Bank. Its core strength is a large advisor network that has driven record client assets under administration of roughly $1.76 trillion, with particularly strong growth in fee-based accounts.
The company has reported record net revenues in recent quarters, helped by a rebound in investment banking and steady organic asset growth. Strategic acquisitions — including Clark Capital, which added roughly $47 billion in managed and non-discretionary assets, and the GreensLedge capital-markets platform — have broadened its capabilities. Advisor recruiting remains robust, and management cites a strong investment banking pipeline. At the same time, RJF has faced near-term pressure: the share price has pulled back in recent weeks, and investors are weighing capital-markets volatility, legal expenses tied to cash-sweep litigation, and the cost of heavy technology and AI investment against the firm's otherwise solid profitability.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is their business mix. Northern Trust is heavily exposed to institutional asset servicing and custody — a comparatively stable, recurring-fee business — supplemented by net interest income from its banking arm. Raymond James, by contrast, derives much of its growth from advisor-led wealth management and a more cyclical capital markets and investment banking franchise.
Growth drivers also differ. NTRS's trajectory is tied to growth in AUC and AUM, operating leverage, and margin expansion; RJF's is tied to advisor recruiting, net new assets, and the health of M&A (mergers and acquisitions) and underwriting activity. This makes RJF more sensitive to deal-making cycles, while NTRS is more exposed to interest-rate shifts and industry fee compression.
On momentum, NTRS has been the stronger performer recently, reaching record highs, whereas RJF has cooled after a strong run. On valuation, the gap is modest — both trade in the low-to-mid teens on forward earnings. On sentiment, analysts lean more constructive on RJF, which carries a "Buy/Overweight" consensus, versus a "Hold" consensus for NTRS. Risk profiles also diverge: RJF carries litigation and capital-markets volatility risks, while NTRS faces fee pressure from the ongoing shift toward passive investing.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward NTRS in the current environment. Its steadier, fee-and-interest-driven revenue base and stronger recent price momentum suggest a more consistent trend profile, while RJF's pullback and capital-markets sensitivity introduce comparatively greater near-term variability. That said, RJF's superior analyst sentiment and faster asset-gathering trajectory represent meaningful upside catalysts that could shift relative positioning if deal activity reaccelerates. The assessment remains probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting the balance of stability versus cyclical opportunity between these two well-capitalized franchises.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NTRS is a Hold and RJF is a Buy.
NTRS's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for NTRS moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 42 of 56 cases where NTRS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NTRS just turned positive on October 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where NTRS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +1.49% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NTRS advanced for three days, in 201 of 333 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
NTRS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NTRS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator for NTRS entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NTRS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.424) is normal, around the industry mean (2.404). P/E Ratio (14.173) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.413). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.988) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.888) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
RJF's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for RJF moved out of oversold territory on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 24 of the 29 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 37 of 55 cases where RJF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RJF as a result. In 49 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RJF just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where RJF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Following a +2.53% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RJF advanced for three days, in 210 of 354 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
RJF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RJF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator for RJF entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RJF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.411) is normal, around the industry mean (2.404). P/E Ratio (13.618) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.413). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.791) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.197) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
NTRS | RJF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 86 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 87 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 29 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 9 | 9 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 63 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RJF's Valuation (84) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as NTRS (87) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that RJF’s stock grew similarly to NTRS’s over the last 12 months.
RJF's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as NTRS (38) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that RJF’s stock grew similarly to NTRS’s over the last 12 months.
RJF's SMR Rating (9) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as NTRS (9) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that RJF’s stock grew similarly to NTRS’s over the last 12 months.
NTRS's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as RJF (58) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that NTRS’s stock grew similarly to RJF’s over the last 12 months.
NTRS's P/E Growth Rating (45) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as RJF (63) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that NTRS’s stock grew similarly to RJF’s over the last 12 months.
| NTRS | RJF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 54% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 59% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NTRS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while RJF’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- NTRS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- RJF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NTRS’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RJF’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NTRS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
- RJF’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
NTRS (@Investment Managers) experienced а +0.23% price change this week, while RJF (@Investment Managers) price change was +1.16% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -1.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.37%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.93%.
Reported Earning Dates
NTRS is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
RJF is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (-1.39% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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RJF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RJF has been closely correlated with SF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RJF jumps, then SF could also see price increases.