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IVZ vs NTRS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Invesco (IVZ) vs. Northern Trust (NTRS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- IVZ is a global asset manager whose assets under management (AUM) reached a record of roughly $2.17 trillion, up 17.5% year over year, supported by long-term net inflows of about $19.1 billion in its latest quarter.
- NTRS is a diversified financial holding company spanning wealth management, asset servicing, and asset management, with assets under custody and administration near $17.4 trillion.
- IVZ delivered stronger recent share-price momentum, ranking among the top-performing S&P 500 asset managers in 2025, while NTRS offered more measured gains and steady fee-driven earnings growth.
- A sizable non-cash impairment pushed IVZ to a GAAP net loss in its latest quarter, contrasting with NTRS's consistent profitability and rising return on equity.
- NTRS raised its medium-term pre-tax margin and return targets, whereas IVZ's near-term narrative centers on margin expansion and capital returns after a loss-making year.
- Investors comparing the two are weighing growth-oriented asset-gathering momentum against the stability of a custody-and-wealth franchise.
Introduction
Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) and Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) both operate at the center of the asset-management and financial-services ecosystem, yet they pursue very different business models. Invesco is primarily an investment manager focused on gathering assets across mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and alternatives. Northern Trust pairs asset and wealth management with a large custody and asset-servicing platform for institutions and ultra-high-net-worth families. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors evaluating relative performance, growth drivers, and risk profiles across two companies whose fortunes are closely tied to market levels, client flows, and interest rates.
IVZ Overview and Recent Performance
Invesco is one of the world's leading asset managers, with roots dating back to 1935 and a product lineup spanning equities, fixed income, alternatives, and multi-asset strategies. Its reach is global, with a meaningful share of client AUM held outside the United States. In recent weeks, the company has been in focus following its fourth-quarter 2025 results, which showed adjusted net revenue rising 8.8% year over year to about $1.26 billion and adjusted operating margin expanding to 36.4% from 33.7% a year earlier.
The stock has exhibited strong recent momentum, rallying more than 50% during 2025 and outperforming both the broader S&P 500 and much of the asset-management peer group. Sentiment has been supported by record AUM, long-term net inflows, the completed conversion of the Invesco QQQ Trust from a unit investment trust into an open-end ETF, and portfolio streamlining through divestitures. However, a roughly $1.8 billion non-cash intangible impairment charge pushed the company to a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) net loss for the quarter and full year, tempering the otherwise upbeat operating picture.
NTRS Overview and Recent Performance
Northern Trust is a financial holding company serving corporations, institutions, families, and individuals through three segments: Wealth Management, Asset Servicing, and Asset Management. Its asset-servicing franchise is among the largest globally, with assets under custody and administration of roughly $17.4 trillion, up about 11% year over year, and it counts a substantial share of top U.S. pension and healthcare plans among its clients. Wealth Management AUM grew about 13% to approximately $507 billion, while Asset Management AUM rose about 12% to around $1.8 trillion.
In its most recent quarter, NTRS reported earnings per share of $2.42, up 7% year over year and ahead of analyst expectations, on revenue of about $2.14 billion. Trust fee growth, higher net interest income, and disciplined expense management drove positive operating leverage. Management expressed enough confidence to raise medium-term targets, including a pre-tax margin goal near 33% and a mid-teens return on equity. The company maintained a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of 12.6% and returned roughly $1.9 billion to shareholders during 2025 through buybacks and dividends.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two companies is their business mix. Invesco is an asset gatherer whose revenue scales with AUM and product flows, making it more sensitive to market appreciation and fund-level fee trends. Northern Trust blends fee-based custody and wealth services with a banking and net-interest-income component, giving it a steadier, more diversified revenue base.
On growth, IVZ has shown faster near-term momentum in both asset growth and share price, while NTRS has delivered more consistent earnings and profitability. IVZ's adjusted operating margin is structurally higher, but its recent GAAP loss highlights earnings-quality considerations. NTRS carries a lower, more stable earnings trajectory and stronger capital buffers, reflected in its CET1 ratio. Risk profiles differ accordingly: IVZ is more exposed to market volatility and fund flows, whereas NTRS is more exposed to interest rates and institutional fee pressure.
Market sentiment has favored IVZ's turnaround and asset-growth story, with recent analyst upgrades, while NTRS draws more mixed ratings despite a positive earnings reaction. Both companies are active capital returners, though NTRS's profitability supports its buybacks more comfortably than IVZ's loss-affected results.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative stability, and catalyst quality, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward NTRS for its steadier earnings profile, stronger capital position, and self-reinforcing fee-based model, which tend to produce more reliable trend signals. That said, IVZ presents a higher-momentum, higher-beta profile that may appeal to models oriented toward relative strength and asset-growth catalysts. The probabilistic assessment is that NTRS currently offers a more consistent risk-adjusted setup, while IVZ offers greater potential upside tied to sustained inflows and margin execution, making the choice dependent on an investor's preference for stability versus momentum.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is IVZ is a StrongBuy and NTRS is a Hold.
IVZ's RSI Indicator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for IVZ moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 28 of the 32 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 44 of 56 cases where IVZ's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +3.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IVZ advanced for three days, in 227 of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
IVZ may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on IVZ as a result. In 59 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
IVZ moved below its 50-day moving average on September 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for IVZ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IVZ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator for IVZ entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. IVZ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.276) is normal, around the industry mean (2.404). P/E Ratio (-42.970) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.413). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.901) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.981) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
NTRS's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for NTRS moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 42 of 56 cases where NTRS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NTRS just turned positive on October 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where NTRS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +1.49% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NTRS advanced for three days, in 201 of 333 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
NTRS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NTRS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator for NTRS entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NTRS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.424) is normal, around the industry mean (2.404). P/E Ratio (14.173) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.413). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.988) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.888) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
IVZ | NTRS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 63 | 86 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 75 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 38 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 9 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 45 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
IVZ's Valuation (75) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as NTRS (87) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that IVZ’s stock grew similarly to NTRS’s over the last 12 months.
NTRS's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as IVZ (53) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that NTRS’s stock grew similarly to IVZ’s over the last 12 months.
NTRS's SMR Rating (9) in the Regional Banks industry is significantly better than the same rating for IVZ (92) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that NTRS’s stock grew significantly faster than IVZ’s over the last 12 months.
IVZ's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as NTRS (52) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that IVZ’s stock grew similarly to NTRS’s over the last 12 months.
NTRS's P/E Growth Rating (45) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IVZ (99) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that NTRS’s stock grew somewhat faster than IVZ’s over the last 12 months.
| IVZ | NTRS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 70% | 9 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 53% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
IVZ’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while NTRS’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- IVZ’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- NTRS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
IVZ’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NTRS’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- IVZ’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NTRS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
IVZ (@Investment Managers) experienced а -0.03% price change this week, while NTRS (@Investment Managers) price change was +0.23% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -1.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.37%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.93%.
Reported Earning Dates
IVZ is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
NTRS is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (-1.39% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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IVZ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, IVZ has been closely correlated with BLK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if IVZ jumps, then BLK could also see price increases.