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NTRS vs STT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Northern Trust (NTRS) vs. State Street (STT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both NTRS and STT are custody and asset-servicing banks that posted strong year-to-date gains before a roughly 9% pullback over the most recent month.
- State Street carries a larger market capitalization (near $48 billion) and a wider analyst consensus, while Northern Trust trades at a smaller scale with a lower forward valuation multiple.
- State Street benefits from a unique structural catalyst tied to its SPDR ETF franchise, whereas Northern Trust leans more heavily on wealth management and family-office services.
- Northern Trust shows higher returns on equity, while State Street is delivering faster revenue and earnings growth.
- Both firms face shared industry headwinds, including fee compression from the shift to passive investing and ETFs, plus rising technology spending.
Introduction
Northern Trust Corporation and State Street Corporation occupy adjacent corners of the global asset-servicing and custody industry, yet their market positioning and growth drivers diverge in meaningful ways. Both stocks have been standout performers over the past year, and both have recently cooled from elevated levels, making a side-by-side stock comparison timely for investors evaluating relative performance. Traders focused on financial-sector momentum, dividend income, and institutional custody economics may find this comparison particularly useful. This analysis reviews recent developments, business models, and observable momentum signals to clarify how these two names stack up in the current market environment.
NTRS Overview and Recent Performance
NTRS, or Northern Trust Corporation, is a Chicago-based custodian bank and wealth manager serving institutions, high-net-worth individuals, and family offices. Its business spans asset servicing, asset management, and wealth management, with a strong footprint in global family-office and private-capital services.
In recent market activity, Northern Trust shares have traded near $168 after a notable multi-month advance, with the stock up roughly 23% year-to-date and more than 28% over the past year. The 52-week range stretches from about $121 to just under $196, reflecting substantial volatility around an overall upward trend. Much of the recent optimism stems from better-than-expected quarterly results and management's decision to raise medium-term profitability targets. The company has emphasized disciplined expense management, positive operating leverage, and continued organic fee growth. Even so, the stock has pulled back in recent weeks alongside the broader financial sector, and analyst sentiment sits at a consensus "Hold," suggesting the market sees the easy upside as largely reflected in the price.
STT Overview and Recent Performance
STT, or State Street Corporation, is a Boston-based global custodian and asset servicer best known for its State Street Global Advisors division and the SPDR exchange-traded fund (ETF) franchise. The company generates revenue from investment servicing, investment management, and related foreign-exchange and financing activities.
State Street shares have traded near $175 recently, after a year-to-date gain above 35% and a one-year advance approaching 50%. The 52-week range of roughly $105 to $196 underscores the strength of the move. Recent quarters featured record revenue and improved net interest income, prompting management to raise its full-year outlook and set medium-term targets for a roughly 35% pretax margin and mid-20s return on tangible common equity (ROTCE). A distinctive catalyst has been the creation of a large number of federally sponsored children's accounts that default into a State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF, drawing investor attention to the franchise. Like Northern Trust, however, the stock has pulled back over the past month as short-term sentiment cools ahead of upcoming earnings.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies share a common core — custody and asset servicing — but their growth profiles differ. State Street is the larger and faster-growing franchise, with trailing revenue near $15 billion and a broad ETF distribution channel that provides both scale and a structural inflow catalyst. Northern Trust, by contrast, skews toward wealth and family-office services, which tend to be higher-margin but more sensitive to market values and client activity.
On valuation, Northern Trust trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple than State Street, reflecting more conservative growth expectations. State Street's forward P/E is below its trailing figure, a sign the market anticipates meaningful near-term earnings expansion. Northern Trust posts a higher return on equity, while State Street generates superior revenue momentum and a larger total addressable base.
Risk profiles also differ. Northern Trust is more exposed to wealth-management fee dynamics, whereas State Street faces ETF fee compression and product-concentration risk within its SPDR lineup. Both are sensitive to interest rates, deposit flows, and technology investment, but State Street carries a higher beta (a measure of volatility relative to the market), indicating greater sensitivity to broad market swings.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, growth catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward STT in the current environment. State Street combines stronger revenue and earnings growth, a more favorable analyst consensus, and a distinct structural catalyst in its SPDR ETF franchise, all of which support a more persistent momentum profile. Northern Trust offers higher returns on equity and a steadier, wealth-focused model, but its growth trajectory appears less dynamic. That said, both stocks have recently pulled back from elevated levels, and the relative edge is probabilistic rather than definitive. Traders monitoring momentum and stability may watch how each name behaves around upcoming earnings before drawing firmer conclusions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NTRS is a Hold and STT is a Hold.
NTRS in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 14, 2026
NTRS moved below its 50-day moving average on September 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 29 of 41 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NTRS as a result. In 49 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NTRS turned negative on September 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 63%.
The 10-day moving average for NTRS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NTRS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator for NTRS entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NTRS's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NTRS advanced for three days, in 209 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
NTRS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NTRS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.552) is normal, around the industry mean (3.263). P/E Ratio (14.996) is within average values for comparable stocks, (27.022). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.988) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.081) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.888) is also within normal values, averaging (15.860).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
STT's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for STT entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 113 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 72 of the 113 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on STT as a result. In 41 of 71 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
STT moved below its 50-day moving average on September 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for STT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where STT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where STT's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 17 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 46 of 55 cases where STT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Following a +1.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where STT advanced for three days, in 243 of 370 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
STT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 15 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.998) is normal, around the industry mean (3.263). P/E Ratio (15.863) is within average values for comparable stocks, (27.022). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.671) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.081) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.453) is also within normal values, averaging (15.860).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. STT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
NTRS | STT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 62 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 68 Overvalued | 15 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 12 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 9 | 8 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
STT's Valuation (15) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NTRS (68). This means that STT’s stock grew somewhat faster than NTRS’s over the last 12 months.
STT's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as NTRS (38). This means that STT’s stock grew similarly to NTRS’s over the last 12 months.
STT's SMR Rating (8) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as NTRS (9). This means that STT’s stock grew similarly to NTRS’s over the last 12 months.
STT's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as NTRS (53). This means that STT’s stock grew similarly to NTRS’s over the last 12 months.
STT's P/E Growth Rating (24) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as NTRS (43). This means that STT’s stock grew similarly to NTRS’s over the last 12 months.
| NTRS | STT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 62% | 10 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 58% | 1 day ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 64% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NTRS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while STT’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s).
- NTRS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- STT’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NTRS’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while STT’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NTRS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- STT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
NTRS (@Investment Managers) experienced а -1.17% price change this week, while STT (@Investment Managers) price change was -0.94% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -4.21%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.58%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.31%.
Reported Earning Dates
NTRS is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
STT is expected to report earnings on Oct 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (-4.21% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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