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NTRS vs STT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Northern Trust (NTRS) vs. State Street (STT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both NTRS and STT are custody and asset-servicing banks that hit all-time highs in 2026 before cooling in recent weeks.
- NTRS skews toward wealth management and high-net-worth clients, while STT is more concentrated in institutional custody and asset management.
- STT posted record AUM and AUC/A in recent quarters but saw its shares fall after a modest revenue miss, reflecting elevated expectations.
- NTRS reported strong fee and net interest income growth, though a planned CFO retirement in 2027 has added a measure of near-term uncertainty.
- Both companies announced 10% dividend increases following the 2026 Federal Reserve stress test, underscoring capital strength.
- Relative momentum and trend consistency, rather than headline earnings, are likely to shape how an AI-driven comparison frames these two names.
Introduction
Northern Trust (NTRS) and State Street (STT) are two of the most prominent trust and custody banks in the United States, yet they serve overlapping but distinct client bases. A stock comparison between the two is particularly relevant for investors evaluating financial-sector exposure across wealth management, asset servicing, and institutional custody. Both stocks delivered strong multi-year gains before pulling back in recent weeks, making their relative performance and market positioning a timely subject. Traders assessing momentum, trend stability, and catalysts may find this head-to-head useful in gauging which name currently presents a more consistent technical and fundamental profile.
NTRS Overview and Recent Performance
Northern Trust Corporation provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking services to institutions, families, and individuals. The company has leaned into higher-growth, fee-based franchises, recently agreeing to divest its guardianship services business and, in early 2026, partnering to expand distribution of its tax-managed direct indexing solutions.
In its most recent reported quarter, NTRS posted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.71, well above the prior-year figure, on revenue that rose roughly 14% year over year. Total assets under custody (AUC) reached about $14.8 trillion and assets under management (AUM) about $1.8 trillion, each up approximately 11% year over year. Net interest income (NII) also advanced as the company benefited from a relatively stable funding mix. Despite this momentum, shares pulled back in recent weeks after touching an all-time high earlier in the year, partly as investors digested the announced retirement of the chief financial officer (CFO), planned for early 2027.
STT Overview and Recent Performance
State Street Corporation delivers custody, asset servicing, and investment management to institutional investors, with a substantial franchise in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) through its SPDR brand. The firm has also advanced digital-asset initiatives, including tokenized money market and stablecoin reserve offerings.
In its latest reported quarter, STT grew revenue roughly 13% year over year to about $4.0 billion, with net income up approximately 27%. Assets under custody and administration (AUC/A) climbed to a record near $59 trillion, while AUM reached a record near $6.3 trillion. Notably, the stock declined after the release despite strong profit growth, as revenue came in slightly below consensus expectations and management tempered some fee-growth assumptions. Over the past year, STT shares rallied sharply before pulling back from a September all-time high, leaving the stock well below its 52-week peak even as longer-term gains remain substantial.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge most clearly in business mix. NTRS derives a larger share of its economics from wealth management and high-net-worth servicing, while STT is anchored in large-scale institutional custody and asset management, where scale and fee sensitivity are more pronounced. As a result, STT typically carries higher AUC/A but thinner margins on a per-unit basis, whereas NTRS emphasizes fee-rich advisory relationships.
On momentum, both names enjoyed strong runs into 2026 before fading. STT delivered a sharper one-year advance but also a more visible sentiment reset after its latest report, while NTRS faces a more gradual leadership-transition overhang. From a capital perspective, both are well positioned, with common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratios comfortably above regulatory minimums and rising dividends. Risk profiles differ too: STT carries greater exposure to fee compression and ETF pricing pressure, whereas NTRS is more sensitive to wealth-flows and compensation costs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely view NTRS as the steadier candidate in the current environment. Its pullback has been more orderly, its fee-driven revenue base remains resilient, and its catalysts, though modest, are not accompanied by the same degree of expectations risk that has weighed on STT. By contrast, STT offers greater scale and stronger recent earnings momentum but also more volatile sentiment following its latest report. Probabilistically, an AI-driven framework would lean toward NTRS for trend stability, while acknowledging that STT retains stronger growth catalysts should fee momentum stabilize.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NTRS is a StrongBuy and STT is a Buy.
NTRS in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026
NTRS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 27 of 37 cases where NTRS's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NTRS's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 26, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NTRS as a result. In 54 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NTRS just turned positive on October 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where NTRS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +1.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NTRS advanced for three days, in 201 of 333 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NTRS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator for NTRS entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NTRS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.495) is normal, around the industry mean (2.420). P/E Ratio (14.586) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.848). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.988) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.268) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.888) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
STT's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for STT moved out of oversold territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 17 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 15 of the 17 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on STT as a result. In 51 of 72 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for STT just turned positive on October 26, 2026. Looking at past instances where STT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +1.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where STT advanced for three days, in 240 of 368 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
STT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 36 of 66 cases where STT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where STT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator for STT entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. STT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.882) is normal, around the industry mean (2.420). P/E Ratio (14.697) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.848). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.671) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.268) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.453) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
NTRS | STT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 16 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 87 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 13 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 9 | 8 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 22 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
STT's Valuation (84) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as NTRS (87). This means that STT’s stock grew similarly to NTRS’s over the last 12 months.
STT's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as NTRS (35). This means that STT’s stock grew similarly to NTRS’s over the last 12 months.
STT's SMR Rating (8) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as NTRS (9). This means that STT’s stock grew similarly to NTRS’s over the last 12 months.
STT's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as NTRS (48). This means that STT’s stock grew similarly to NTRS’s over the last 12 months.
STT's P/E Growth Rating (22) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as NTRS (48). This means that STT’s stock grew similarly to NTRS’s over the last 12 months.
| NTRS | STT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 88% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 60% | 6 days ago 65% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 58% | 1 day ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NTRS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while STT’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- NTRS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- STT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NTRS’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while STT’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NTRS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- STT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
NTRS (@Investment Managers) experienced а +0.65% price change this week, while STT (@Investment Managers) price change was -0.37% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was +0.27%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
NTRS is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
STT is expected to report earnings on Jan 15, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (+0.27% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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