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NVR vs SPHL
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NVR is a Buy and SPHL is a Hold.
NVR in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026
The 10-day moving average for NVR crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NVR's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 5 of 15 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 33%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NVR as a result. In 66 of 102 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVR just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where NVR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +6.46% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVR advanced for three days, in 176 of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 36 of 62 cases where NVR's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
NVR moved below its 50-day moving average on November 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
NVR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for NVR entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 67 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVR's P/B Ratio (4.949) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.910). P/E Ratio (15.514) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.460) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.909) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
Momentum Indicator for SPHL turns negative, indicating new downward trend
SPHL saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on November 03, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 43 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SPHL moved out of overbought territory on October 22, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 7 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 6 of the 7 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 86%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPHL turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 18 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 16 of the 18 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 89%.
SPHL moved below its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SPHL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPHL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
SPHL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 13 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +11.25% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPHL advanced for three days, in 80 of 82 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 10 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.777) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (-11.350) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.346) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to good earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. SPHL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SPHL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
NVR | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 18 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 67 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 85 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| NVR | SPHL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 33% | 1 day ago 86% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 90% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 89% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 90% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 59% | 15 days ago 90% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 6 days ago 90% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NVR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while SPHL’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- NVR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SPHL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NVR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SPHL’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NVR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SPHL’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 7 bearish.
Price Growth
NVR (@Homebuilding) experienced а +0.19% price change this week, while SPHL (@Homebuilding) price change was +0.89% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -6.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
NVR is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-6.47% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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NVR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVR has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVR jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
SPHL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor tells us that SPHL and GRBK have been poorly correlated (+9% of the time) for the last year. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is low statistical probability that SPHL and GRBK's prices will move in lockstep.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SPHL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPHL | 100% | N/A | ||
| GRBK - SPHL | 9% Poorly correlated | -1.91% | ||
| IBP - SPHL | 9% Poorly correlated | -1.37% | ||
| LEN - SPHL | 9% Poorly correlated | -0.38% | ||
| NVR - SPHL | 6% Poorly correlated | -2.34% | ||
| HOVNP - SPHL | 3% Poorly correlated | +1.01% | ||
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