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ODFL vs RXO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) vs. RXO, Inc. (RXO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ODFL boasts superior profitability with a 18.63% profit margin and positive EPS (earnings per share, a measure of profitability per share) of $4.84, contrasting RXO's ongoing losses and negative EPS of -$0.59.
- Both stocks show strong year-to-date (YTD, from January 1 to current date) gains—ODFL at approximately 41% and RXO at 53%—amid recovering freight demand.
- RXO exhibits hotter recent momentum with over 40% gains in the past month, outpacing ODFL's 16% rise, driven by sector tailwinds.
- ODFL's larger market cap of $46 billion provides stability, while RXO's $3.2 billion cap reflects higher growth potential but elevated risk.
- Analyst targets suggest modest upside for both, with ODFL at $203 average and RXO at $16, implying relative valuation differences.
Introduction
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) and RXO, Inc. (RXO) operate in the competitive trucking and logistics sector, where freight volumes and economic cycles heavily influence performance. This stock comparison analyzes their business models, recent market activity, and relative strengths, aiding traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing long-term positioning in transportation. With industrial recovery signals and shifting supply chain dynamics, understanding their contrasts in asset structure, profitability, and momentum helps inform decisions on relative performance and sector exposure.
ODFL Overview and Recent Performance
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is a leading less-than-truckload (LTL, freight shipments smaller than a full truckload) carrier, operating a vast network of terminals and a company-owned fleet emphasizing service reliability and on-time delivery. In recent market activity, ODFL shares have advanced significantly, posting about 41% YTD gains and trading near $222 within a 52-week range of $126-$227. Key influences include a Q4 earnings beat with revenue of $1.31 billion and EPS of $1.09, alongside analyst upgrades from firms like Stifel and Goldman Sachs citing freight volume recovery. Sentiment remains positive ahead of Q1 earnings, supported by a PE ratio (price-to-earnings, stock price divided by EPS) of 45.85 and robust margins, though high valuation prompts caution.
RXO Overview and Recent Performance
RXO, Inc. (RXO) provides asset-light logistics solutions, including brokerage for truckload and LTL shipments, leveraging technology platforms for matching shippers and carriers without owning trucks. Recent weeks have seen RXO shares surge over 40% in the past month and 53% YTD, closing around $19.38 in a 52-week range of $10-$20. Despite a Q4 net loss and revenue shortfall to $1.47 billion, momentum stems from broader sector optimism and operational improvements like AI-driven productivity. Trading at a forward PE of 333 amid negative trailing EPS, investor focus centers on growth potential in digital freight matching, balanced against debt levels and past credit concerns.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ODFL and RXO differ fundamentally: ODFL’s asset-heavy LTL model drives consistent revenue through owned infrastructure, yielding high ROE (return on equity, profitability relative to shareholders' equity) of 24%, while RXO’s brokerage platform prioritizes scalability and tech for volume growth but exposes it to carrier network volatility. Growth drivers favor RXO in e-commerce logistics, yet ODFL leads in margins and stability. Recent momentum tilts to RXO with superior short-term gains, but ODFL shows trend consistency. Risks include cyclical freight demand for both, amplified by RXO’s higher beta (market volatility measure) of 1.52 and losses. Market sentiment views ODFL as a quality anchor, RXO as a value-growth bet.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors ODFL due to its superior trend consistency, profitability stability, and positive catalysts like earnings beats and analyst support. While RXO offers stronger recent momentum, ODFL’s relative positioning in the sector—bolstered by high margins and lower risk—aligns better with algorithmic preferences for sustainable outperformance in volatile markets.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ODFL is a StrongBuy and RXO is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ODFL’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileRXO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ODFL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- RXO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ODFL’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RXO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ODFL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- RXO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ODFL (@Trucking) experienced а -0.05% price change this week, while RXO (@Trucking) price change was +7.16% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucking industry was +3.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +32.91%, and the average quarterly price growth was +55.25%.
Reported Earning Dates
ODFL is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
RXO is expected to report earnings on Aug 06, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucking (+3.78% weekly)The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.
| ODFL | RXO | ODFL / RXO | |
| Capitalization | 51.5B | 4.74B | 1,086% |
| EBITDA | 1.71B | 20M | 8,545% |
| Gain YTD | 50.880 | 127.453 | 40% |
| P/E Ratio | 51.72 | 670.67 | 8% |
| Revenue | 5.46B | 5.73B | 95% |
| Total Cash | 288M | 21M | 1,371% |
| Total Debt | 40M | 699M | 6% |
ODFL | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 43 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 46 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 6 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 16 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 8 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| ODFL | RXO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | about 1 month ago 58% | 29 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 61% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| SCHR | 24.51 | -0.01 | -0.04% |
| Schwab Intermediate-Term US Trs ETF™ | |||
| LTL | 24.51 | -0.18 | -0.71% |
| ProShares Ultra Communication Services | |||
| JNEU | 32.52 | -0.25 | -0.75% |
| AllianzIM U.S. Equity Buffer15 UncJunETF | |||
| CGV | 15.58 | -0.17 | -1.08% |
| Conductor Global Equity Value ETF | |||
| TLTD | 97.93 | -1.19 | -1.20% |
| FlexShares Mstar DevMks exUS FctTilt ETF | |||
RXO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RXO has been closely correlated with CVLG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RXO jumps, then CVLG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To RXO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RXO | 100% | -1.27% | ||
| CVLG - RXO | 73% Closely correlated | -2.88% | ||
| ULH - RXO | 64% Loosely correlated | -3.51% | ||
| ARCB - RXO | 59% Loosely correlated | -4.65% | ||
| ODFL - RXO | 57% Loosely correlated | -5.14% | ||
| HTLD - RXO | 57% Loosely correlated | -1.50% | ||
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