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OLN vs SQM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Olin Corporation (OLN) vs. Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- OLN (Olin Corporation) swung to a full-year 2025 net loss despite slightly higher sales, pressured by weak chlor-alkali pricing and customer destocking.
- SQM (Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile) returned to strong profitability in 2025 on record lithium sales volumes and an improved supply-demand balance.
- Recent price momentum diverged sharply: SQM posted a one-year gain above 60%, while OLN shares declined more than 20% over the same period.
- The two companies occupy different parts of the chemicals landscape — OLN leans on chlorine, caustic soda, and ammunition, while SQM is anchored to lithium, iodine, and specialty plant nutrients.
- SQM's exposure to electric-vehicle (EV) and energy-storage demand carries higher cyclical upside but also greater commodity-price volatility.
Introduction
Olin Corporation and Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile are both global specialty-chemical producers, yet they sit at opposite ends of the market's current mood. This stock comparison examines how a legacy chemicals and ammunition business with weakening pricing power contrasts against a lithium producer riding a sharp demand recovery. The relative performance of OLN and SQM offers a useful lens on two distinct market themes — cyclical industrial recovery versus the electrification and energy-storage boom. Growth-oriented traders may find SQM's momentum compelling, while value-focused investors may weigh OLN's cost-cutting story against its near-term earnings pressure.
OLN Overview and Recent Performance
Olin Corporation is a vertically integrated manufacturer of chemical products — primarily chlorine, caustic soda, vinyls, and epoxies — and, through its Winchester segment, a leading U.S. producer of ammunition. In recent market activity, OLN has faced meaningful headwinds. The company reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of roughly $1.67 billion, essentially flat year over year, but swung to a quarterly net loss of about $85.7 million from a small profit a year earlier. For full-year 2025, sales rose to approximately $6.78 billion, yet the company posted a net loss of about $42.8 million versus a profit of $108.6 million in 2024.
Sentiment has been weighed down by weaker chlor-alkali pricing, customer destocking, and operational disruptions at its Freeport, Texas facility, including extended maintenance turnarounds. Management has emphasized cost-reduction programs and a disciplined "value-first" commercial approach, and the company continues returning capital through share repurchases. Even so, shares have declined more than 20% over the trailing year, with a high net-debt position and a leverage ratio near 4.1 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) keeping balance-sheet resilience in focus.
SQM Overview and Recent Performance
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile is a diversified producer of lithium, iodine, and specialty plant nutrients, and ranks among the world's largest lithium suppliers. In contrast to OLN, SQM has seen a notable earnings recovery. Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue rose about 23% year over year to $1.32 billion, while net income climbed to roughly $183.8 million. For the full year, SQM reported net income of approximately $588.1 million, or $2.06 per share (EPS), reversing a $404.4 million net loss in 2024, on record lithium sales volumes.
Key catalysts behind the improvement include an easing lithium supply glut, stronger-than-expected demand from energy storage systems and electric vehicles, and the launch of the Nova Andino Litio partnership with Chilean state miner Codelco, which secures long-term access to the Salar de Atacama. Management has guided that the lithium market could grow around 25% in the current year. Shares have gained more than 60% over the past year, though a price-to-earnings ratio above 30 times trailing earnings reflects elevated valuation expectations tied to lithium pricing.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks lies in their market positioning and momentum. SQM is a commodity-linked growth story: earnings are highly sensitive to lithium prices, EV adoption, and energy-storage demand, and its recent upside has been driven by record volumes and a tightening market. OLN, by comparison, is a cyclical value play facing pricing weakness across its chlor-alkali and vinyls franchise, with its Winchester ammunition segment providing some diversification but also its own margin pressures.
On risk factors, OLN carries elevated leverage and near-term margin compression, while SQM faces Chilean regulatory and concession uncertainty and a heavy multi-year capital-spending program. Sector exposure also diverges: OLN is tied to industrial, construction, and defense end markets, whereas SQM's fortunes are concentrated in battery materials and specialty agriculture. Sentiment currently favors SQM's momentum and earnings inflection, but its richer valuation leaves less room for disappointment, while OLN's depressed multiple and cost-saving initiatives may appeal to contrarian investors.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor SQM over OLN in the current environment. SQM exhibits stronger and more sustained price momentum, a positive earnings inflection backed by record volumes, and clearer near-term catalysts tied to lithium demand and the Codelco partnership. OLN's weaker pricing backdrop, recent swing to losses, and elevated leverage suggest less favorable trend alignment, even though its cost-reduction efforts and valuation could support a recovery under different conditions. This assessment reflects probabilistic, data-driven positioning rather than a definitive prediction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is OLN is a Buy and SQM is a Buy.
OLN in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026
OLN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 28 of 39 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 23, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on OLN as a result. In 53 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for OLN just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where OLN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +5.75% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OLN advanced for three days, in 181 of 274 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OLN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
OLN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for OLN entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.172) is normal, around the industry mean (1.207). P/E Ratio (-10.173) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.806). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.050) is also within normal values, averaging (3.769). Dividend Yield (0.045) settles around the average of (0.183) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.289) is also within normal values, averaging (0.578).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. OLN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. OLN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
SQM in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026
SQM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 29 of 35 cases where SQM's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for SQM's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +2.56% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SQM advanced for three days, in 223 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SQM turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SQM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
The Aroon Indicator for SQM entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 44 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.473) is normal, around the industry mean (2.431). P/E Ratio (11.247) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-18.994). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.300) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.079) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.917) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SQM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SQM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
OLN | SQM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 51 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 46 Fair valued | 44 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 86 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 64 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 93 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SQM's Valuation (44) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as OLN (46) in the Industrial Specialties industry. This means that SQM’s stock grew similarly to OLN’s over the last 12 months.
SQM's Profit vs Risk Rating (86) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as OLN (100) in the Industrial Specialties industry. This means that SQM’s stock grew similarly to OLN’s over the last 12 months.
SQM's SMR Rating (41) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OLN (94) in the Industrial Specialties industry. This means that SQM’s stock grew somewhat faster than OLN’s over the last 12 months.
OLN's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Industrial Specialties industry is in the same range as SQM (64) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry. This means that OLN’s stock grew similarly to SQM’s over the last 12 months.
SQM's P/E Growth Rating (93) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as OLN (97) in the Industrial Specialties industry. This means that SQM’s stock grew similarly to OLN’s over the last 12 months.
| OLN | SQM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 66% | 27 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 79% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
OLN’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while SQM’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- OLN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- SQM’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
OLN’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SQM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- OLN’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SQM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
OLN (@Chemicals: Major Diversified) experienced а +12.39% price change this week, while SQM (@Chemicals: Specialty) price change was -4.36% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Major Diversified industry was +1.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was -26.28%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Specialty industry was +0.32%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.60%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.42%.
Reported Earning Dates
OLN is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
SQM is expected to report earnings on Nov 17, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Major Diversified (+1.88% weekly)The major diversified chemicals industry includes companies that produce a wide range of chemicals and industrial gases. The products are often used as raw materials in the manufacturing of various types of goods, including plastics, paints, carpets, and fixtures to name a few. Major companies making diversified chemicals include DuPont de Nemours Inc., Celanese Corporation, Celanese Corporation and Westlake Chemical Corporation.
@Chemicals: Specialty (+0.32% weekly)The specialty chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemicals and industrial gases, which are of relatively high-value, often made to customer specifications. Examples of specialty chemicals are electronic chemicals, industrial gases, coatings, adhesives and sealants, industrial and institutional cleaning chemicals. The products are often valued on the basis of their purposes/performances rather than for their composition. Linde Plc, Ecolab Inc., Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., and Dow, Inc. are some of the largest companies making specialty chemicals.
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OLN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OLN has been closely correlated with DOW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OLN jumps, then DOW could also see price increases.
SQM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SQM has been closely correlated with ALB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SQM jumps, then ALB could also see price increases.