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PAAS vs RGLD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) vs. Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PAAS is a diversified precious metals miner with direct leverage to silver and gold prices and a newly expanded shareholder return framework targeting up to $1 billion in 2026 distributions.
- RGLD is a royalty and streaming company that earns revenue from a broad portfolio of mines without bearing direct operating or capital cost risk.
- Both companies reported sharply higher earnings, but their business models create very different risk and margin profiles.
- Recent silver-price softness has pressured PAAS, while RGLD's gold-weighted, cost-light model has shown comparatively greater stability.
- Analyst consensus is "Buy" for both names, though RGLD's higher, more stable margins reflect a lower-risk revenue structure.
Introduction
Investors weighing precious metals exposure often face a choice between owning a producer and owning a royalty company. PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp.) and RGLD (Royal Gold, Inc.) sit on opposite sides of that divide, making their stock comparison a useful lens on how different business models behave in the current market environment. Both are sensitive to gold and silver prices, yet they convert those prices into earnings in fundamentally different ways. This article examines their recent performance, growth drivers, and market positioning to help traders and investors understand the trade-offs between operational leverage and structural stability.
PAAS Overview and Recent Performance
Pan American Silver Corp. is one of the world's largest primary silver producers and a major gold producer, operating mines across the Americas. As an operator, PAAS bears the full costs of labor, energy, and consumables, which means its margins move directly with metal prices. In its most recent quarterly results, the company reported strong sales and net income and announced a shareholder return framework targeting up to $1 billion in 2026 distributions, weighted toward share buybacks alongside a dividend it has raised several times in recent quarters. The company has also highlighted sharply reduced all-in sustaining costs, supported by its acquired underground mine portfolio.
In recent weeks, however, sentiment has cooled as spot silver prices pulled back from earlier highs. Because PAAS's share price is closely correlated with silver, this retreat has weighed on the stock, and at least one major brokerage lowered its price target on the name while maintaining an overall constructive view. The stock still trades below its average analyst price target, and the consensus rating remains "Buy," reflecting the market's view that long-term production growth and cost discipline remain intact even as near-term metal prices fluctuate.
RGLD Overview and Recent Performance
Royal Gold, Inc. is a precious metals royalty and streaming company that provides capital to mine operators in exchange for a percentage of future production or revenue. This model gives RGLD exposure to metal prices without direct exposure to mining costs, which keeps its margins high and relatively stable. The company reported record quarterly revenue, net income, and operating cash flow in its most recent period, driven by significantly higher gold, silver, and copper prices and contributions from assets added through recent transactions. Revenue was weighted roughly 71% to gold, 16% to silver, and 10% to copper, with an adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin around 83%.
Royal Gold has also increased its dividend for 25 consecutive years, a record of consistency that distinguishes it within the sector. Recent corporate activity includes a $500 million share repurchase authorization and an expanded revolving credit facility. Its broad, diversified portfolio—spanning more than 360 assets, of which roughly 80 currently produce revenue—reduces single-asset and single-operator risk. In recent market activity, the stock has demonstrated relatively steadier behavior than producers, reflecting its lower-cost, gold-focused revenue structure.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two stocks is the nature of their exposure. PAAS is an operator, so it offers higher potential upside leverage when silver and gold rally but also carries operating risk, cost inflation, and greater sensitivity to any pullback in silver—a factor visible in its recent price behavior. RGLD is a royalty and streaming company, so it forfeits some upside torque in exchange for lower costs, higher margins, and a more diversified, gold-weighted revenue base that has proven comparatively resilient.
Growth drivers differ as well. PAAS's outlook is tied to production growth, mine expansion projects, and cost reduction, while RGLD's growth comes primarily from its asset pipeline and portfolio additions. Risk factors also diverge: PAAS faces operational, jurisdictional, and cost risks at individual mines, whereas RGLD's principal risks are counterparty performance, asset concentration, and acquisition execution. On market sentiment, both carry "Buy" consensus ratings, but RGLD's steadier margin profile and dividend record appeal to investors prioritizing stability, while PAAS's stronger direct leverage to silver appeals to those seeking cyclical upside.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely express a modest preference for RGLD in the current environment. The royalty model's high, stable margins, gold-weighted revenue mix, and diversified portfolio suggest a more consistent trend profile, while PAAS currently faces near-term pressure from softer silver prices despite a strong fundamental story. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: if silver regains momentum, PAAS's greater operational leverage could shift the relative picture quickly. Traders should weigh this balance of stability versus cyclical upside against their own time horizon and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PAAS is a Hold and RGLD is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for PAAS turns positive, indicating new upward trend
PAAS saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on November 06, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 73 of the 86 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where PAAS's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 23 of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PAAS just turned positive on November 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where PAAS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Following a +4.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAAS advanced for three days, in 241 of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
PAAS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAAS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator for PAAS entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.320) is normal, around the industry mean (2.121). P/E Ratio (12.180) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-12.498). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.330) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.533) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. PAAS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
RGLD in +8.02% Uptrend, rising for three consecutive days on November 06, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where RGLD advanced for three days, in 260 of 365 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where RGLD's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RGLD as a result. In 50 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RGLD just turned positive on October 19, 2026. Looking at past instances where RGLD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
RGLD moved above its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 50-day moving average for RGLD moved above the 200-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for RGLD crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RGLD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
RGLD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for RGLD entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RGLD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.968) is normal, around the industry mean (2.121). P/E Ratio (29.307) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-12.498). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.480) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.330) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (12.563) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
PAAS | RGLD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 47 Fair valued | 71 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 57 | 27 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 43 | 60 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 89 | 22 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PAAS's Valuation (47) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as RGLD (71). This means that PAAS’s stock grew similarly to RGLD’s over the last 12 months.
RGLD's Profit vs Risk Rating (27) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as PAAS (57). This means that RGLD’s stock grew similarly to PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
PAAS's SMR Rating (43) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as RGLD (60). This means that PAAS’s stock grew similarly to RGLD’s over the last 12 months.
RGLD's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as PAAS (61). This means that RGLD’s stock grew similarly to PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
RGLD's P/E Growth Rating (22) in the Precious Metals industry is significantly better than the same rating for PAAS (89). This means that RGLD’s stock grew significantly faster than PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
| PAAS | RGLD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 61% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 3 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 72% | 10 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 60% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PAAS’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while RGLD’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PAAS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- RGLD’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PAAS’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RGLD’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PAAS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- RGLD’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
PAAS (@Precious Metals) experienced а +8.40% price change this week, while RGLD (@Precious Metals) price change was +16.19% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was +11.18%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.35%, and the average quarterly price growth was -12.03%.
Reported Earning Dates
PAAS is expected to report earnings on Feb 24, 2027.
RGLD is expected to report earnings on Feb 17, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (+11.18% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
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