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MPC vs PARR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum (MPC) vs. Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MPC and PARR operate in the downstream energy refining sector, exposing them to crude oil price fluctuations, crack spreads, and regional demand patterns.
- MPC maintains a significantly larger operational scale with approximately 3.0 million barrels per day of refining capacity across multiple facilities, providing greater diversification than PARR's more concentrated footprint.
- Recent market activity shows both stocks delivering substantial year-to-date gains, with PARR exhibiting higher percentage appreciation amid strong quarterly results and analyst upgrades.
- MPC has benefited from broader market recognition, including inclusion in growth indexes, supporting steady momentum in recent weeks.
- Risk profiles differ notably: MPC offers relative stability through size and integrated operations, while PARR presents higher volatility tied to its smaller size and geographic focus.
- Market sentiment remains constructive for the refining segment overall, driven by resilient product demand and supportive fundamentals observed in recent reporting periods.
Introduction
This comparison examines MPC (Marathon Petroleum Corporation) and PARR (Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.), two publicly traded companies in the energy refining and marketing space. The analysis focuses on their business models, recent stock performance, and relative positioning in the current market environment. Institutional investors, momentum traders, and sector specialists evaluating energy exposure may find this review useful for understanding trade-offs between scale, growth trajectories, and risk characteristics. The discussion draws on verifiable market data and company disclosures to highlight observable contrasts without forward-looking speculation.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation operates as a major integrated downstream energy company with extensive refining, marketing, and midstream assets. Its portfolio includes significant renewable diesel production alongside traditional refining capacity. In recent market activity, MPC shares have shown consistent upward movement, contributing to year-to-date returns exceeding 75 percent as of early July 2026. Performance has been supported by favorable refining margins and operational execution reflected in first-quarter 2026 results, which reported net income attributable to the company of $511 million. Broader index inclusion and sector tailwinds have reinforced positive sentiment in recent weeks, with the stock trading near multi-year highs amid steady volume and analyst coverage.
PARR Overview and Recent Performance
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. focuses on refining and retail operations with key assets in Hawaii and other Pacific markets, emphasizing regional supply and distribution. The company reported robust first-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $91.5 million alongside share repurchases. In recent market activity, PARR has delivered outsized gains, with year-to-date returns approaching 92 percent and notable single-session advances, including double-digit percentage moves. Analyst actions, such as price target increases, have aligned with these developments. The stock has approached its 52-week high amid elevated trading interest, reflecting strong operational metrics and market responsiveness in the current period.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Business models contrast sharply in scale: MPC leverages extensive refining capacity and integrated operations for broader exposure, whereas PARR maintains a more focused regional presence that can amplify sensitivity to local market dynamics. Growth drivers include refining crack spreads and demand resilience for both, yet PARR has recorded comparatively stronger percentage momentum recently. Risk factors highlight MPC’s greater stability through diversification against PARR’s elevated volatility stemming from smaller market capitalization and geographic concentration. Sector exposure remains similar within downstream energy, though sentiment appears particularly constructive toward PARR following earnings and analyst commentary. Trade-offs center on balancing established scale and consistency with potential for accelerated moves in a nimbler operator.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including recent trend consistency and relative performance metrics, Tickeron’s AI models indicate a probabilistic preference for PARR in the current environment due to its stronger momentum and operational catalysts. MPC offers appeal through scale and steadier positioning. Outcomes remain subject to evolving market conditions, with no single factor determining long-term results.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPC is a Buy and PARR is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePARR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PARR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PARR’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PARR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +6.53% price change this week, while PARR (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +12.46% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +6.68%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was +31.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
PARR is expected to report earnings on Aug 10, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+6.68% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| MPC | PARR | MPC / PARR | |
| Capitalization | 82.8B | 3.3B | 2,511% |
| EBITDA | 12.4B | 792M | 1,566% |
| Gain YTD | 76.013 | 87.194 | 87% |
| P/E Ratio | 18.68 | 7.45 | 251% |
| Revenue | 135B | 7.54B | 1,790% |
| Total Cash | 2.15B | 172M | 1,251% |
| Total Debt | 34.3B | 1.35B | 2,533% |
MPC | PARR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 31 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 26 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 35 | 28 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 6 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 76 | 59 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 40 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (73) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (94) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (26) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's SMR Rating (28) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MPC (35) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (6) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (37) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's P/E Growth Rating (59) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MPC (76) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | PARR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 61% | 25 days ago 78% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 77% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| VNQI | 45.54 | 0.40 | +0.89% |
| Vanguard Global ex-US Real Est ETF | |||
| VFMV | 141.48 | N/A | N/A |
| Vanguard US Minimum Volatility ETF | |||
| NACP | 59.80 | N/A | N/A |
| Impact Shares NAACP Minority Empwrmt ETF | |||
| ZJUL | 29.99 | N/A | N/A |
| Innovator Eq Dfnd Prot ETF - 1Yr Jul | |||
| HOOX | 41.62 | -2.51 | -5.68% |
| Defiance Daily Target 2X Long HOOD ETF | |||
MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MPC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC | 100% | +0.16% | ||
| VLO - MPC | 90% Closely correlated | -0.20% | ||
| PSX - MPC | 84% Closely correlated | -0.77% | ||
| DINO - MPC | 79% Closely correlated | +0.71% | ||
| PBF - MPC | 73% Closely correlated | -0.24% | ||
| PARR - MPC | 68% Closely correlated | +0.37% | ||
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PARR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PARR has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PARR jumps, then DK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PARR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARR | 100% | +0.37% | ||
| DK - PARR | 76% Closely correlated | -1.03% | ||
| VLO - PARR | 73% Closely correlated | -0.20% | ||
| DINO - PARR | 70% Closely correlated | +0.71% | ||
| PBF - PARR | 68% Closely correlated | -0.24% | ||
| MPC - PARR | 67% Closely correlated | +0.16% | ||
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