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MPC vs PARR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) vs. Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MPC and PARR operate in the oil refining sector, benefiting from elevated crack spreads (the difference between crude oil and refined product prices) in recent market activity.
- MPC, with a market capitalization of approximately $72 billion and 3 million barrels per day (bpd) refining capacity, has delivered around 53% year-to-date gains and a quarterly dividend of $1.00 per share.
- PARR, a smaller player with $3.2 billion market cap and 219,000 bpd capacity, has surged 86% year-to-date and over 350% in the past year, reflecting strong momentum.
- Analysts maintain buy ratings on both, with price targets around $249 for MPC and $70 for PARR.
- Recent weeks show upward price trends for both amid robust refining margins and high diesel demand.
- Tickeron's AI growth ratings favor PARR (39) over MPC (22).
Introduction
This stock comparison pits MPC, a refining behemoth, against PARR, a nimble regional refiner, both thriving in the downstream energy space. Investors and traders tracking the refining cycle—fueled by tight product supply and strong demand for diesel and gasoline—may find value in evaluating their relative performance, valuations, and market positioning. With crack spreads widening in recent weeks due to geopolitical tensions and seasonal factors, these stocks highlight trade-offs between scale, growth momentum, and stability in a volatile sector. This analysis draws on recent financial data to illuminate key contrasts for informed decision-making.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading integrated downstream energy company, operating approximately 3 million bpd of refining capacity across 16 refineries, complemented by midstream assets including pipelines and terminals. In recent market activity, MPC shares have trended higher, gaining over 50% year-to-date amid favorable refining conditions. Key drivers include record refinery throughput near 95% utilization, a 44% jump in refining margins, and a declared quarterly dividend of $1.00 per share payable in June. Sentiment has brightened with analyst upgrades and optimism around sustained crack spreads, supporting steady performance despite broader energy sector fluctuations.
PARR Overview and Recent Performance
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) focuses on refining and logistics, managing four refineries with 219,000 bpd capacity in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, and Wyoming. The stock has exhibited strong upward momentum in recent weeks, building on 86% year-to-date and 355% one-year returns, driven by robust profitability and a $250 million share buyback program. Favorable crack spreads and low production costs have bolstered refining EBITDA, enhancing investor sentiment. Trading near its 52-week high, PARR reflects optimism in regional market dynamics, though its smaller scale introduces higher sensitivity to commodity swings.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MPC and PARR share sector exposure to refining margins but diverge in scale and focus. MPC's diversified model, including midstream, provides stability and $72 billion market cap resilience, while PARR's regional operations enable agile responses but heighten risk from localized disruptions. Growth drivers favor PARR's explosive recent momentum versus MPC's consistent gains. Valuation-wise, both trade at attractive low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios around 8-10, with PARR appearing cheaper on growth metrics. Risk factors include cyclical crack spread volatility, greater for smaller PARR. Market sentiment leans positive for both amid 2026 refining outlooks of tight capacity.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors PARR over MPC, citing its superior price growth rating (39 vs. 22) and stronger relative momentum in recent trends. While MPC offers greater stability and scale, PARR's catalysts like buybacks and regional leverage position it for higher probabilistic upside in the prevailing refining environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPC is a Hold and PARR is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whilePARR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PARR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PARR’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PARR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -6.86% price change this week, while PARR (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -8.11% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -6.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.94%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.04%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
PARR is expected to report earnings on Aug 10, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-6.63% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| MPC | PARR | MPC / PARR | |
| Capitalization | 70.9B | 2.55B | 2,778% |
| EBITDA | 12.4B | 792M | 1,566% |
| Gain YTD | 50.685 | 44.821 | 113% |
| P/E Ratio | 15.99 | 5.76 | 277% |
| Revenue | 135B | 7.54B | 1,790% |
| Total Cash | 2.15B | 172M | 1,251% |
| Total Debt | 34.3B | 1.35B | 2,533% |
MPC | PARR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 57 | 77 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 62 Fair valued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 38 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 35 | 28 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 81 | 79 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 40 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (62) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (94) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (38) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's SMR Rating (28) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MPC (35) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (51) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's P/E Growth Rating (79) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MPC (81) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | PARR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 75% | 12 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 78% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 78% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| TCHP | 50.67 | 0.97 | +1.95% |
| T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF | |||
| IRTR | 32.13 | 0.19 | +0.58% |
| iShares LifePath Retirement ETF | |||
| HOOY | 33.09 | 0.13 | +0.39% |
| YieldMax HOOD Option Income Strategy ETF | |||
| RFV | 142.72 | 0.48 | +0.34% |
| Invesco S&P MidCap 400® Pure Value ETF | |||
| SEPM | 32.79 | 0.05 | +0.17% |
| FT Vest U.S. Eq Max Buffr ETF - Sep | |||
PARR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PARR has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PARR jumps, then DK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PARR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARR | 100% | +0.08% | ||
| DK - PARR | 76% Closely correlated | -2.05% | ||
| VLO - PARR | 73% Closely correlated | -1.45% | ||
| DINO - PARR | 70% Closely correlated | -2.14% | ||
| PBF - PARR | 68% Closely correlated | -1.27% | ||
| MPC - PARR | 67% Closely correlated | -0.69% | ||
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