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MPC vs PARR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) vs. Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) operates as one of the largest U.S. refining and marketing companies with extensive downstream assets and a broader geographic footprint.
- Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) focuses on refining, retail, and logistics primarily in Hawaii and select mainland markets, resulting in higher sensitivity to regional crude supply dynamics.
- Recent market activity shows PARR delivering substantially stronger returns over the past year compared with MPC, driven by operational leverage in its core regions.
- MPC maintains greater scale, dividend consistency, and exposure to diversified refining margins, while PARR exhibits higher volatility tied to its smaller size and concentrated operations.
- Sector sentiment in oil refining and marketing remains influenced by crude oil price fluctuations, crack spreads, and demand for transportation fuels in recent weeks.
- Tickeron AI growth ratings currently favor PARR over MPC based on observable trend consistency and relative positioning.
Introduction
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) and Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) are both participants in the U.S. oil refining and marketing sector, making them relevant for comparison by investors and traders seeking exposure to downstream energy assets. The two companies differ in scale, geographic focus, and business mix, which can lead to divergent performance under varying crude price and demand conditions. This analysis examines their business models, recent relative performance, and market positioning to assist those evaluating refining stocks for portfolio allocation or short-term trading strategies. Professional and retail investors monitoring energy sector rotation or refining margin trends may find the comparison particularly useful for assessing risk-return trade-offs.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a major integrated downstream energy company engaged in refining, marketing, and midstream operations across the United States. Its large-scale refining network processes a wide range of crude oils into gasoline, diesel, and other products, supported by an extensive retail and wholesale distribution system. In recent weeks, MPC stock has exhibited relatively stable price behavior amid broader energy sector movements, influenced by refining margin trends and overall crude oil volatility. Market sentiment toward MPC has reflected its position as a larger, more diversified player, with performance tied to national fuel demand patterns and operational efficiency metrics. The company’s scale provides some insulation from localized disruptions compared with smaller peers.
PARR Overview and Recent Performance
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) operates refineries, retail outlets, and logistics assets concentrated in Hawaii and select U.S. mainland locations. Its business model emphasizes regional fuel supply, including conventional and renewable products, with integrated retail and terminal operations. Recent market activity has shown PARR delivering notable price appreciation, outperforming broader refining peers over multi-month periods due to favorable crack spreads and regional supply dynamics. Sentiment has been supported by the company’s operational leverage in its core markets, though its smaller size contributes to greater price volatility relative to larger competitors. Developments in crude sourcing and product demand in Hawaii and adjacent areas have continued to shape performance in recent weeks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) and Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) share exposure to refining margins and fuel demand but differ markedly in scale and concentration. MPC’s larger asset base and nationwide presence provide greater stability and dividend support, whereas PARR’s regional focus offers higher operating leverage in specific markets. Recent momentum has favored PARR’s returns, though this comes with elevated volatility compared with MPC’s more measured price behavior. Risk factors for MPC include broader regulatory and macroeconomic sensitivity, while PARR faces greater exposure to localized supply disruptions or demand shifts. Market sentiment currently reflects PARR’s stronger relative performance, tempered by MPC’s established market position and cash-flow generation capacity.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative positioning, and growth metrics, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probability of favorable near-term characteristics to Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) over Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC). This assessment incorporates PARR’s demonstrated outperformance in recent periods alongside its operational profile, while acknowledging MPC’s scale advantages and stability. The probabilistic nature of such evaluations reflects ongoing market variables rather than deterministic outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPC is a Hold and PARR is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePARR’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PARR’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PARR’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PARR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +2.34% price change this week, while PARR (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +11.16% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +3.50%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +17.51%, and the average quarterly price growth was +44.35%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
PARR is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+3.50% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| MPC | PARR | MPC / PARR | |
| Capitalization | 92.4B | 4.31B | 2,142% |
| EBITDA | 12.4B | 792M | 1,566% |
| Gain YTD | 96.317 | 144.821 | 67% |
| P/E Ratio | 20.83 | 9.74 | 214% |
| Revenue | 135B | 7.54B | 1,790% |
| Total Cash | 2.15B | 172M | 1,251% |
| Total Debt | 34.3B | 1.35B | 2,533% |
MPC | PARR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 45 | 48 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 63 Fair valued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 16 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 36 | 29 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 34 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 31 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (63) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (85) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (16) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's SMR Rating (29) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MPC (36) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (34) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's P/E Growth Rating (31) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MPC (65) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew somewhat faster than MPC’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | PARR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 50% | 4 days ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 52% | 4 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 82% | 5 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 6 days ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 59% | 11 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 82% |
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MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
PARR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PARR has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PARR jumps, then DK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PARR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARR | 100% | +0.14% | ||
| DK - PARR | 76% Closely correlated | +0.24% | ||
| VLO - PARR | 73% Closely correlated | +0.77% | ||
| DINO - PARR | 71% Closely correlated | -1.05% | ||
| MPC - PARR | 68% Closely correlated | +0.76% | ||
| PBF - PARR | 68% Closely correlated | -1.12% | ||
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