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MPC vs PARR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) vs. Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Tickeron AI Verdict: MPC is the favored ticker, reflecting greater scale, a diversified cash-flow base, and more consistent trend stability relative to PARR.
- Both refiners have delivered exceptional momentum, but MPC combines a large-cap footprint with midstream income, while PARR is a smaller, higher-beta regional operator with greater single-asset concentration.
- Recent analyst activity has been mixed for PARR (several downgrades on valuation), whereas MPC has seen maintained and raised price targets alongside a 10% dividend increase.
- Risk profiles differ materially: PARR carries higher leverage and geographic concentration, while MPC benefits from a stronger balance sheet and share-repurchase capacity.
- For more color on each name, explore MPC Major News and MPC Today's Price Move, as well as PARR Major News and PARR Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI-driven strategies are positioning across thousands of tickers, explore the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Investors and traders evaluating the refining sector are increasingly weighing scale and stability against high-growth regional exposure. This stock comparison examines MPC, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, one of the largest integrated downstream energy companies in the United States, against PARR, Par Pacific Holdings, a smaller refining, logistics, and retail operator concentrated in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, and the Rockies. Both names have benefited from a historically strong refining-margin environment, yet their market positioning, risk profiles, and momentum characteristics differ sharply. This comparison is relevant for investors seeking to understand relative performance, sector exposure, and how AI-driven tools might rank two refining companies at different points on the risk-reward spectrum.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
MPC operates a diversified downstream business spanning Refining & Marketing, Midstream, and Renewable Diesel, supported by its master limited partnership MPLX, which provides a steadier stream of midstream cash flow. In recent weeks, the stock has been among the top performers in the S&P 500 energy complex, with share-price gains driven by strong crack spreads (the margin between crude oil and refined product prices), elevated refining utilization, and a reported refining and marketing (R&M) margin capture above 100%. The company recently raised its quarterly dividend 10% to $1.10 per share, signaling confidence in cash generation, and analysts have responded with maintained and raised price targets. With a market capitalization well above $100 billion, MPC offers scale, liquidity, and a diversified cash-flow base that has supported buybacks and a more stable trading profile.
PARR Overview and Recent Performance
PARR is a Houston-based energy company with roughly 219,000 barrels per day of refining capacity across four refineries, alongside storage, marine, rail, and pipeline assets, a retail network under brands such as Hele and nomnom, and a 46% stake in natural gas producer Laramie Energy. The company has delivered a dramatic earnings turnaround in recent quarters, with refining adjusted gross margins and adjusted EBITDA surging, driven in part by a much stronger Hawaii margin environment. PARR also brought a Hawaii renewable fuels facility into commercial operation earlier this year, broadening its energy-transition exposure. However, recent market activity has been more volatile, and several analysts have moved to Neutral ratings on valuation grounds even as some price targets were raised. As a smaller-cap, more geographically concentrated operator, PARR tends to exhibit higher beta and sharper single-name swings.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a large library of AI Trading Bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each configured with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, and universe of securities. Because not every bot suits every market regime, Tickeron curates a focused Trending AI Robots section that highlights only the bots currently most aligned with prevailing market conditions. These bots span a wide range of approaches, from short-term momentum and swing strategies to longer-horizon trend-following models, allowing traders to match a bot to their own risk tolerance and objectives. Readers interested in quantitative, rules-based positioning across names like MPC and PARR can explore the Trending AI Robots page to review current selections and performance statistics.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies represent contrasting approaches within the same sector. MPC is a diversified, vertically integrated refiner with national scale, a midstream affiliate, and meaningful share-repurchase capacity, which tends to produce a lower-beta, more consistent performance profile. PARR is a regional operator whose earnings are more sensitive to a handful of assets, particularly its Hawaii refinery, making its results and share price more volatile even during favorable margin cycles. On growth drivers, both benefit from strong refining margins, but MPC adds project-driven yield improvements and midstream growth, while PARR adds renewable fuels and upstream exposure through Laramie Energy. Risk factors also diverge: PARR carries higher leverage and more geographic concentration, whereas MPC holds a stronger liquidity position. Market sentiment has turned more cautious on PARR following recent downgrades, while MPC has retained broader support alongside a dividend increase.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently favor MPC over PARR. MPC pairs strong refining momentum with a diversified midstream cash-flow base, a larger and more liquid capital structure, and a lower-beta trading profile, factors that generally translate into more consistent trend behavior. In contrast, PARR, while exhibiting powerful earnings growth, presents higher volatility, elevated leverage, and greater single-asset sensitivity, alongside a recent shift toward more cautious analyst sentiment. This does not imply PARR cannot outperform over shorter windows; rather, on a probabilistic, stability-adjusted basis, MPC currently presents the more favorable relative positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPC is a StrongBuy and PARR is a Hold.
MPC's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for MPC moved out of oversold territory on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 21 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 19 of the 21 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 51 cases where MPC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +5.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MPC advanced for three days, in 298 of 381 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
MPC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 267 of 351 cases where MPC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 76%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MPC as a result. In 42 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MPC turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 61%.
MPC moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MPC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MPC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 42, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MPC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.487) is normal, around the industry mean (4.566). P/E Ratio (12.902) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.639). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.898) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.800) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
PARR in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026
The 10-day moving average for PARR crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PARR as a result. In 61 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PARR turned negative on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 74%.
PARR moved below its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PARR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator for PARR entered a downward trend on November 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 44 of 52 cases where PARR's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Following a +7.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PARR advanced for three days, in 275 of 345 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
PARR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 42, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PARR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.720) is normal, around the industry mean (4.566). P/E Ratio (3.916) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.639). PARR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (9.990) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.494) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
MPC | PARR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 52 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 95 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 18 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 21 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 85 | 93 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 10 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (85) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (95) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (18) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's SMR Rating (19) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MPC (21) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (51) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's P/E Growth Rating (85) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (93) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | PARR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 82% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 59% | 8 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 74% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while PARR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PARR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PARR’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PARR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +9.42% price change this week, while PARR (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +4.86% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +4.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.00%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.82%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
PARR is expected to report earnings on Feb 24, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+4.86% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
PARR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PARR has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PARR jumps, then DK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PARR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARR | 100% | +1.19% | ||
| DK - PARR | 77% Closely correlated | +1.86% | ||
| PBF - PARR | 74% Closely correlated | +2.24% | ||
| VLO - PARR | 73% Closely correlated | +3.09% | ||
| DINO - PARR | 73% Closely correlated | +0.93% | ||
| MPC - PARR | 69% Closely correlated | +2.48% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| MARM | 34.71 | -0.01 | -0.03% |
| FT Vest U.S. Equity Max Buffer ETF - March (MARM) | |||
| GMAY | 43.80 | -0.09 | -0.21% |
| FT Vest U.S. Equity Moderate Buffer ETF - May (GMAY) | |||
| NHYB | 23.85 | -0.10 | -0.43% |
| Nuveen High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NHYB) | |||
| ESIM | 28.16 | -0.24 | -0.86% |
| Eventide International ETF (ESIM) | |||
| MPWX | 15.32 | -0.88 | -5.43% |
| Tradr 2X Long MPWR Daily ETF (MPWX) | |||