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MPC vs PARR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) vs. Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MPC is among the largest U.S. refiners by volume, while PARR operates a smaller, regionally focused refining, retail, and logistics footprint.
- Both stocks have delivered triple-digit gains in 2026, driven by elevated global refining margins and tight fuel supply linked to geopolitical disruption.
- MPC benefits from scale, strong margin capture, and a diversified midstream cash-flow base through its stake in MPLX.
- PARR offers higher operating leverage to regional refining economics but carries greater sensitivity to individual refinery reliability and maintenance.
- Recent analyst actions have been mixed, with price-target increases alongside valuation-driven downgrades, underscoring how much of the rally may already be reflected in prices.
- The comparison hinges on a trade-off between stability and scale versus higher-beta, regionally concentrated upside.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two energy companies that have become focal points of the refining sector's strong 2026 performance. MPC (Marathon Petroleum Corporation) is a large-cap U.S. refiner with an integrated midstream business, while PARR (Par Pacific Holdings) is a smaller, geographically concentrated operator of refineries across Hawaii and the western United States. Investors and traders evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and risk exposure in the energy space may find this comparison useful, particularly given how both companies have benefited from the same underlying force: unusually strong refining margins and tight fuel supply amid geopolitical tensions. The analysis below contrasts their business models, recent momentum, and risk profiles without favoring either name.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
MPC (Marathon Petroleum Corporation) is one of the largest independent refiners in the United States, operating a nationwide refining network alongside a significant ownership stake in MPLX, a midstream master limited partnership (MLP) that generates steadier, fee-based cash flow. In recent weeks and across 2026, MPC has been among the best-performing large-cap energy names, with shares rising well over 100% year to date and repeatedly reaching new highs. The rally has been fueled by elevated global crack spreads (the margin between crude oil costs and refined product prices), which have tightened following geopolitical disruptions including attacks on shipping and refinery infrastructure. Operationally, the company has reported strong refining margin capture, high Gulf Coast utilization, and robust cash returns to shareholders through buybacks. This combination of scale, operational reliability, and midstream diversification has reinforced positive sentiment, though the stock's rapid appreciation has also prompted some analysts to question how much upside remains priced in.
PARR Overview and Recent Performance
PARR (Par Pacific Holdings) is a smaller, regionally focused energy company that refines crude oil into gasoline, distillates, and asphalt across refineries in Hawaii, Montana, Washington, and Wyoming, while also operating retail fuel stations and logistics assets. Its shares have also delivered a triple-digit return over the past year and a strong gain in 2026, benefiting from the same tight refining environment that has lifted the broader sector. The company reported a sharp improvement in earnings in recent quarters, with net income expanding substantially as refining margins improved across its system. However, PARR's performance remains heavily tied to individual refinery reliability, planned maintenance, and regional fuel economics. Recent analyst activity has been mixed, with some firms raising price targets while others downgraded the stock to a neutral rating on valuation grounds, reflecting the debate over whether the earnings improvement is already reflected in the share price.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is scale and diversification. MPC operates a national refining footprint and, through MPLX, captures a more stable midstream earnings stream that helps cushion the cyclicality of refining. Its larger balance sheet and higher share count make it a more liquid, institutionally favored holding. PARR, by contrast, is far smaller by market capitalization and more concentrated in a handful of refineries, which can amplify both upside and downside when regional margins or operations shift.
On momentum, both stocks have ridden the same refining upcycle, but PARR's smaller size has historically translated into higher-beta price swings. Risk factors also differ: MPC faces policy and export-related risks tied to its scale, while PARR is more exposed to single-refinery outages and turnaround (scheduled maintenance) costs. Market sentiment has turned more cautious on both names recently, with valuation concerns tempering the enthusiasm generated by record margins, though the underlying sector fundamentals remain supportive.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalyst breadth, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely express a preference for MPC over PARR in the current environment. MPC's larger scale, more diversified cash flows through MPLX, stronger margin capture, and steadier trend characteristics generally suggest a more consistent and lower-volatility trajectory. While PARR offers compelling upside potential given its higher operating leverage, its greater sensitivity to individual refinery reliability and maintenance introduces more variability that can weigh on trend stability. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, and the relative attractiveness of either name could shift quickly if refining margins normalize or regional operating conditions change.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPC is a Hold and PARR is a Hold.
MPC's RSI Oscillator leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Oscillator for MPC moved out of overbought territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 25 of the 39 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 34 of 57 cases where MPC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MPC as a result. In 49 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MPC turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MPC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
MPC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +5.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MPC advanced for three days, in 288 of 373 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 269 of 348 cases where MPC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MPC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 36, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.761) is normal, around the industry mean (5.102). P/E Ratio (15.898) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.854). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.898) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.800) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
Aroon Indicator for PARR shows an upward move is likely
PARR's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on September 29, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 296 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 241 of the 296 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +9.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PARR advanced for three days, in 269 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
PARR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PARR as a result. In 61 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PARR turned negative on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 81%.
PARR moved below its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PARR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 36, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PARR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.026) is normal, around the industry mean (5.102). P/E Ratio (4.613) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.854). PARR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (9.990) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.494) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
MPC | PARR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 90 | 75 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 87 Overvalued | 96 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 3 | 16 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 21 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 83 | 83 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (87) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (96) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (16) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's SMR Rating (19) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MPC (21) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (1) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PARR (37) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew somewhat faster than PARR’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's P/E Growth Rating (83) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (83) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | PARR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 81% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 77% | 11 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 81% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while PARR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- PARR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PARR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
- PARR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -3.70% price change this week, while PARR (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -4.25% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -3.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.44%, and the average quarterly price growth was +37.01%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
PARR is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-3.81% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
PARR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PARR has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PARR jumps, then DK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PARR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARR | 100% | -5.34% | ||
| DK - PARR | 77% Closely correlated | -3.11% | ||
| PBF - PARR | 74% Closely correlated | -2.81% | ||
| VLO - PARR | 73% Closely correlated | -2.40% | ||
| DINO - PARR | 72% Closely correlated | -2.59% | ||
| MPC - PARR | 69% Closely correlated | -1.86% | ||
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| KVLE | 28.03 | 0.06 | +0.21% |
| KraneShares Value Line Dynamic Dividend Equity Index ETF (KVLE) | |||
| RJDI | 29.06 | -0.17 | -0.58% |
| RJ Eagle GCM Dividend Select Income ETF (RJDI) | |||
| EPSV | 28.83 | -0.43 | -1.47% |
| Harbor Smid Cap Value ETF | |||
| CWI | 39.33 | -0.68 | -1.70% |
| State Street SPDR MSCI ACWI ex-US ETF (CWI) | |||
| NVDU | 124.32 | -11.74 | -8.63% |
| Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X ETF (NVDU) | |||