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MPC vs PARR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum (MPC) vs. Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is the largest U.S. refiner by capacity, with substantial scale, an integrated midstream business, and heavy shareholder-return programs.
- Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) is a smaller, regionally concentrated refiner spanning Hawaii and the Western U.S., with outsized sensitivity to refining margins.
- Both stocks have surged recently as geopolitical disruptions and tight fuel inventories lifted refining margins to multi-year highs.
- MPC offers diversification through midstream and renewable diesel, while PARR carries higher concentration and balance-sheet risk but potentially greater earnings leverage.
- Relative performance has favored MPC on stability, while PARR has shown stronger percentage gains in recent quarters.
Introduction
Refining stocks have become a focal point for traders and investors as elevated crack spreads (the margin between crude oil costs and refined product prices) reshape earnings across the sector. Comparing MPC and PARR offers a study in scale versus concentration: a diversified refining and midstream giant against a nimble, regionally focused independent refiner. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors weighing the trade-off between operational stability and higher-beta exposure to refining margins, as well as those tracking how AI-driven analysis evaluates relative performance, trend consistency, and market positioning.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is the largest U.S. refiner by capacity, operating an integrated network of refineries, retail fuel stations, and a majority stake in the midstream partnership MPLX, which manages pipelines and logistics infrastructure. Recent market activity has reflected a powerful margin upcycle. In its most recent quarter, the company reported adjusted earnings well above analyst estimates, driven by refining and marketing margins that roughly doubled year over year, as geopolitical supply disruptions tightened global fuel markets.
Sentiment has been further supported by robust capital returns, including significant share repurchases and dividends, and by management commentary highlighting strong operational reliability. In recent weeks the stock has traded near multi-year highs, with momentum supported by analyst price-target increases and tight refining capacity. Key watchpoints include potential regulatory review of diesel exports and the durability of elevated margins.
PARR Overview and Recent Performance
Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) is an independent energy company that owns and operates refineries in Hawaii, Montana, Washington, and Wyoming, alongside retail and logistics segments. Because of its concentrated Western U.S. and Hawaii footprint, the company exhibits pronounced sensitivity to regional crack spreads. Recent quarters showed a sharp earnings inflection, with adjusted earnings per share rising dramatically year over year as refining margins expanded and Hawaii throughput recovered following planned turnaround activity.
Investor attention has focused on the company's early move into renewable fuels, including a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) project, and its announced agreement to sell its non-core Laramie Energy assets. In recent weeks the stock has pulled back from highs amid profit-taking, but its longer-term trend remains strong. Risks include concentrated geographic exposure, aging assets, and a comparatively higher debt load.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast is scale and diversification. MPC benefits from a national refining footprint, midstream cash flows through MPLX, and a renewable diesel segment, which together smooth earnings volatility. PARR operates a much smaller, geographically concentrated asset base, meaning its results are more tightly linked to regional crack spreads and operational execution at a handful of facilities.
On growth drivers, both companies are enjoying the same favorable refining environment, but PARR offers higher percentage earnings leverage from margin expansion and its renewable fuels initiatives, while MPC compounds through steady buybacks and midstream growth. Risk factors diverge as well: PARR carries greater concentration, asset-age, and balance-sheet risk, whereas MPC faces scale-related regulatory scrutiny. From a valuation standpoint, PARR trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings multiple, reflecting its higher perceived risk.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor MPC in the current environment. The stock's larger, more diversified cash flows, consistent capital returns, and steadier trend profile tend to produce more reliable momentum signals, even as PARR has posted stronger recent percentage gains. While PARR may offer higher reward potential from concentrated margin leverage, its volatility and geographic concentration introduce greater uncertainty. Consequently, a probabilistic AI model emphasizing risk-adjusted trend quality would more likely assign a stronger relative signal to MPC.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPC is a StrongBuy and PARR is a Hold.
MPC | PARR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 94 | 91 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 66 Overvalued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 4 | 14 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 21 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 36 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 92 | 86 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (66) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (94) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (14) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's SMR Rating (19) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MPC (21) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (12) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (36) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's P/E Growth Rating (86) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MPC (92) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | PARR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 59% | 9 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 83% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while PARR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- PARR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PARR’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PARR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +7.47% price change this week, while PARR (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +12.30% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +2.03%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.16%, and the average quarterly price growth was +32.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
PARR is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+2.03% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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PARR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PARR has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PARR jumps, then DK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PARR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARR | 100% | +5.62% | ||
| DK - PARR | 77% Closely correlated | +4.16% | ||
| PBF - PARR | 74% Closely correlated | +6.99% | ||
| DINO - PARR | 73% Closely correlated | +5.01% | ||
| VLO - PARR | 72% Closely correlated | +5.38% | ||
| MPC - PARR | 68% Closely correlated | +6.25% | ||
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