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PFGC vs SYY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Performance Food Group (PFGC) vs. Sysco (SYY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PFGC is a faster-growing, more aggressive foodservice distributor, while SYY offers greater scale, diversification, and an established dividend.
- SYY pays a dividend yield of roughly 2.7% and has a lower beta, positioning it as the more defensive choice; PFGC pays no dividend and carries a higher beta.
- PFGC trades at a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple with a "Strong Buy" analyst consensus, reflecting expectations of stronger independent-case growth.
- SYY is pursuing a large-scale AI efficiency program and a major acquisition of Restaurant Depot, creating distinct catalysts and integration risk.
- Both stocks operate in the same cyclical foodservice sector, but their growth drivers, risk profiles, and market positioning differ meaningfully.
Introduction
Performance Food Group (PFGC) and Sysco Corporation (SYY) are two of the largest foodservice distribution companies in North America, yet they occupy distinct niches within the same industry. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors weighing a higher-growth, more volatile play against a larger, dividend-paying, defensive leader. Both names are sensitive to restaurant traffic, food-away-from-home demand, and product-cost inflation, but their relative performance and market positioning have diverged in recent months. Understanding the contrasts in business model, growth strategy, and sentiment can help readers assess which profile better fits their objectives in the current environment.
PFGC Overview and Recent Performance
Performance Food Group (PFGC) markets and distributes food and food-related products through three segments: foodservice, convenience, and specialty. Its foodservice division is heavily weighted toward restaurants, which account for a majority of segment sales. In fiscal 2026, revenue reached approximately $64.3 billion, up about 7% year over year, driven by independent-case growth, acquisitions including Cheney Brothers, and cost inflation.
Recent market activity has been mixed. The stock has traded within a wide 52-week range and posted periods of notable volatility, including a multi-day losing streak in recent weeks that briefly erased a meaningful portion of its market value. Analysts have nonetheless maintained a broadly constructive view, with a consensus "Strong Buy" rating and price targets that imply upside from current levels. Earnings have generally topped expectations, and the company has continued to gain share in the independent restaurant channel. However, sentiment has been tempered by softer quick-service restaurant (QSR) traffic, elevated operating expenses, and the transition to new leadership, factors that have contributed to the stock underperforming the broader market year to date.
SYY Overview and Recent Performance
Sysco Corporation (SYY) is the largest foodservice distributor in the United States, with an estimated 18% share of the market and a footprint spanning U.S. foodservice, international operations, and the SYGMA quick-service logistics business. In fiscal 2026, sales rose roughly 3.9% to about $84.6 billion, while net earnings declined amid higher incentive compensation and investment costs. The company issued fiscal 2027 guidance for 6% to 7% sales growth and 9% to 11% adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth.
Recent performance has been steadier than its peer's, supported by local and international volume gains and an eleventh consecutive quarter of double-digit adjusted operating-income growth internationally. Sentiment has been shaped by several major developments, including the announced acquisition of Restaurant Depot, a multi-year artificial-intelligence (AI) efficiency program targeting substantial cost savings, and capital-raising activities through notes and a common-stock offering. A labor strike at a Los Angeles facility was also resolved. These factors have supported a relatively defensive profile, backed by a consistent dividend and lower historical volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge sharply on scale, growth, and capital allocation. SYY generates roughly $85 billion in annual revenue with a market capitalization near $40 billion, dwarfing PFGC at about $64 billion in revenue and a market cap around $15 billion. This scale gives Sysco a wider distribution network, international diversification, and a steadier earnings stream, while PFGC is more concentrated in U.S. foodservice and convenience channels.
Growth drivers differ as well. PFGC's story centers on independent-case share gains and integration of acquisitions, supporting faster revenue expansion. Sysco's growth leans on local and international volume momentum, private-label penetration, and a major acquisition that could add meaningfully to revenue and EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization).
On valuation and risk, PFGC trades at a higher P/E multiple and pays no dividend, reflecting higher growth expectations but also greater sensitivity to restaurant traffic. SYY offers a dividend yield near 2.7% and a lower beta, appealing to income-oriented investors, though its pending acquisition adds leverage and execution risk. Both face shared headwinds from soft consumer spending on dining out and food-cost inflation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor SYY for its stability and PFGC for its momentum potential, depending on the timeframe applied. In a risk-adjusted framework, Sysco's lower volatility, reliable dividend, and visible AI-driven cost-savings roadmap present a steadier profile, though its large acquisition introduces near-term leverage and integration uncertainty. Performance Food Group's faster growth and "Strong Buy" consensus suggest stronger upside potential, but its higher multiple and recent price swings imply greater sensitivity to sentiment shifts. A momentum-oriented model could tilt toward PFGC during periods of improving restaurant traffic, while a trend-stability model might favor SYY's consistency. The balance of evidence points to a nuanced, probabilistic split rather than a clear-cut winner.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PFGC is a Buy and SYY is a StrongBuy.
PFGC in +2.84% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on October 16, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where PFGC advanced for three days, in 226 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 26, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PFGC as a result. In 55 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PFGC just turned positive on September 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where PFGC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The 10-day moving average for PFGC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 219 of 323 cases where PFGC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PFGC moved out of overbought territory on October 19, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 57 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 57 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 54%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 61 cases where PFGC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
PFGC moved below its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for PFGC moved below the 200-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PFGC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
PFGC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PFGC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.066) is normal, around the industry mean (3.137). P/E Ratio (41.578) is within average values for comparable stocks, (55.471). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.768) is also within normal values, averaging (0.741). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.211) is also within normal values, averaging (0.357).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
SYY in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026
SYY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 29 of 42 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SYY as a result. In 42 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SYY just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where SYY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The 10-day moving average for SYY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +1.54% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SYY advanced for three days, in 150 of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SYY moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 16 of the 29 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 55%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SYY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
SYY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SYY entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SYY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SYY's P/B Ratio (14.779) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.137). P/E Ratio (22.387) is within average values for comparable stocks, (55.471). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.476) is also within normal values, averaging (0.741). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.447) is also within normal values, averaging (0.357).
PFGC | SYY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 39 | 32 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 71 Overvalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 64 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 77 | 16 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PFGC's Valuation (71) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as SYY (81). This means that PFGC’s stock grew similarly to SYY’s over the last 12 months.
PFGC's Profit vs Risk Rating (26) in the Food Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SYY (64). This means that PFGC’s stock grew somewhat faster than SYY’s over the last 12 months.
SYY's SMR Rating (16) in the Food Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PFGC (77). This means that SYY’s stock grew somewhat faster than PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
SYY's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (56). This means that SYY’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
SYY's P/E Growth Rating (32) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (56). This means that SYY’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
| PFGC | SYY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 48% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 51% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 70% | 12 days ago 49% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 67% | 27 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 53% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PFGC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while SYY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PFGC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SYY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PFGC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SYY’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PFGC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
- SYY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
PFGC (@Food Distributors) experienced а -0.08% price change this week, while SYY (@Food Distributors) price change was +0.70% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food Distributors industry was +455.84%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +179.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.43%.
Reported Earning Dates
PFGC is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
SYY is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Food Distributors (+455.84% weekly)Food distributors function as intermediaries between food manufacturers and food service operators (such as chefs, restaurants, beverage managers, cafeterias, industrial caterers, hospitals and nursing homes). Food distribution companies buy, store and then supply food items to the food service operators, thereby allowing the latter to have access to a wide range of food items from various manufacturers. Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding Corp. and Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. are some of the biggest (by market cap) U.S. companies in this segment. Most food service operators buy from local, specialty, and/or broad line food service distributors on a daily or weekly basis. With the rise in e-commerce, consumers are increasingly expecting lower prices, faster service, and higher quality – something that potentially creates the impetus on distribution networks to raise their game.
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PFGC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PFGC has been loosely correlated with USFD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PFGC jumps, then USFD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PFGC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFGC | 100% | +0.97% | ||
| USFD - PFGC | 60% Loosely correlated | +0.45% | ||
| SYY - PFGC | 41% Loosely correlated | +0.97% | ||
| CHEF - PFGC | 40% Loosely correlated | +0.43% | ||
| UNFI - PFGC | 26% Poorly correlated | +2.92% | ||
| AVO - PFGC | 21% Poorly correlated | +0.68% | ||
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SYY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SYY has been loosely correlated with PFGC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 42% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SYY jumps, then PFGC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SYY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYY | 100% | +0.97% | ||
| PFGC - SYY | 42% Loosely correlated | +0.97% | ||
| USFD - SYY | 41% Loosely correlated | +0.45% | ||
| UNFI - SYY | 26% Poorly correlated | +2.92% | ||
| AVO - SYY | 21% Poorly correlated | +0.68% | ||
| DIT - SYY | 7% Poorly correlated | +7.01% | ||
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