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PFGC vs USFD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Performance Food Group (PFGC) vs. US Foods Holding (USFD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both PFGC and USFD are large U.S. foodservice distributors exposed to the same restaurant-traffic cycle, yet their recent momentum and earnings trajectories have diverged meaningfully.
- USFD has posted stronger near-term earnings momentum, wider margins, and reaffirmed full-year guidance, while PFGC faces softer profitability expectations and a round of analyst price-target trims.
- On relative performance, USFD has delivered a larger year-to-date gain, while PFGC recently worked through a multi-week pullback from its 52-week high.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI currently favors USFD over PFGC.
- For additional context on each name, explore the PFGC Major News and PFGC Today's Price Move pages, as well as the USFD Major News and USFD Today's Price Move pages.
- To see how automated strategies are positioning across the market, explore the curated Trending AI Robots section.
Introduction
Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) and US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) are two of the largest foodservice distributors in the United States, supplying restaurants, healthcare facilities, and hospitality operators. Because both companies compete in the same industry and respond to the same demand signals, a direct stock comparison offers investors a useful lens on market positioning and relative performance. This comparison is particularly relevant for traders and investors evaluating sector exposure who want to understand which name currently exhibits more consistent momentum and stronger operational execution, rather than simply tracking the broader food-distribution group.
PFGC Overview and Recent Performance
Performance Food Group Company is a diversified food distributor operating across foodservice, convenience-store, and specialty segments, with annual revenue near $64 billion. The company reaches roughly 300,000 customer locations through a network of distribution centers and has emphasized independent-restaurant case growth and acquisition-driven scale as key strategic priorities.
In recent market activity, PFGC shares have been volatile. After trading near the higher end of their 52-week range, the stock experienced a multi-day slide in recent weeks that trimmed its value materially before stabilizing. Sentiment has been tempered by margin pressure, with analysts flagging softer restaurant traffic and rising input costs. Ahead of its latest quarterly report, consensus expectations called for a notable year-over-year decline in earnings per share (EPS), and several sell-side firms lowered their price targets. The stock still carries a generally constructive "Strong Buy" consensus, but the near-term narrative has shifted toward profitability concerns.
USFD Overview and Recent Performance
US Foods Holding Corp. markets and distributes food and non-food products to foodservice customers across the United States, with a heavy emphasis on independent restaurants, healthcare, and hospitality accounts. The company has leaned on "self-help" initiatives—vendor-management savings, productivity programs, and digital tools—to expand margins even as broader restaurant traffic remains uneven.
In its most recent fiscal quarter, USFD reported adjusted EPS growth of roughly 21% year over year and record adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), with independent-restaurant case volume up by a mid-single-digit percentage. Management reaffirmed its full-year outlook for sales, EBITDA, and EPS growth. The shares have delivered a strong year-to-date return and, despite a brief multi-day pullback, have held up better than PFGC on a relative basis. Analysts broadly rate the stock a "Buy," though valuation remains a point of debate.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates a large ecosystem of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, but not every bot suits every market. The Trending AI Robots page curates only the bots currently best aligned with prevailing market conditions. These automated strategies vary widely in trading style, timeframe, strategy, and the tickers they follow, and their track records and statistics are available for review. This curated selection lets traders evaluate which algorithmic approaches are demonstrating the most consistent performance right now, rather than sorting through the full catalog manually. Explore the Trending AI Robots to see which strategies are drawing attention in the current environment.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is operational momentum versus scale and diversification. PFGC is the larger, more diversified distributor, with meaningful convenience-store and specialty exposure beyond core foodservice. That breadth offers resilience but has also meant thinner overall operating margins and greater sensitivity to near-term cost pressures. USFD, by comparison, is more concentrated in foodservice and has converted productivity and vendor-management initiatives into wider margins and faster EPS growth.
On market sentiment, USFD has benefited from consistent share gains in higher-margin customer segments and reaffirmed guidance, while PFGC has faced a heavier flow of price-target reductions tied to margin and restaurant-traffic concerns. Both face similar risks—soft chain-restaurant volume, labor costs, and input inflation—but USFD has so far translated those headwinds into better relative execution. Valuation is a trade-off: PFGC trades at a lower forward multiple, while USFD commands a premium for its stronger growth and margin profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing trend consistency, earnings momentum, margin trajectory, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward USFD. The stock's combination of accelerating EPS growth, record EBITDA, reaffirmed guidance, and sustained share gains in profitable customer segments presents a more coherent near-term technical and fundamental picture than PFGC, whose momentum has been pressured by margin concerns and analyst revisions. This assessment is probabilistic and reflects observable conditions rather than a definitive forecast; the relative setup can shift as new earnings data and market conditions emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PFGC is a Hold and USFD is a Hold.
PFGC in +3.39% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on November 02, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where PFGC advanced for three days, in 228 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
PFGC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PFGC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 219 of 323 cases where PFGC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PFGC moved out of overbought territory on October 19, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 56 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 26 of the 56 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 46%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PFGC as a result. In 54 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The 50-day moving average for PFGC moved below the 200-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PFGC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
PFGC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 10 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PFGC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.094) is normal, around the industry mean (3.085). P/E Ratio (41.961) is within average values for comparable stocks, (53.143). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.768) is also within normal values, averaging (0.741). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.211) is also within normal values, averaging (0.357).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
USFD in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
The 10-day moving average for USFD crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for USFD just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where USFD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
USFD moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.90% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where USFD advanced for three days, in 201 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 171 of 286 cases where USFD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 60%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for USFD moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 46%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 35 of 65 cases where USFD's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on USFD as a result. In 49 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
USFD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. USFD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.124) is normal, around the industry mean (3.085). P/E Ratio (30.809) is within average values for comparable stocks, (53.143). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.908) is also within normal values, averaging (0.741). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.516) is also within normal values, averaging (0.357).
PFGC | USFD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 42 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 71 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 77 | 53 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 45 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 10 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
USFD's Valuation (71) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (73). This means that USFD’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
USFD's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (25). This means that USFD’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
USFD's SMR Rating (53) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (77). This means that USFD’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
USFD's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (49). This means that USFD’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
USFD's P/E Growth Rating (45) in the Food Distributors industry is in the same range as PFGC (49). This means that USFD’s stock grew similarly to PFGC’s over the last 12 months.
| PFGC | USFD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 67% | N/A |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 60% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PFGC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while USFD’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- PFGC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- USFD’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PFGC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while USFD’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PFGC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- USFD’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PFGC (@Food Distributors) experienced а +0.26% price change this week, while USFD (@Food Distributors) price change was -1.18% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food Distributors industry was -0.52%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.26%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.95%.
Reported Earning Dates
PFGC is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
USFD is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Food Distributors (-0.52% weekly)Food distributors function as intermediaries between food manufacturers and food service operators (such as chefs, restaurants, beverage managers, cafeterias, industrial caterers, hospitals and nursing homes). Food distribution companies buy, store and then supply food items to the food service operators, thereby allowing the latter to have access to a wide range of food items from various manufacturers. Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding Corp. and Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. are some of the biggest (by market cap) U.S. companies in this segment. Most food service operators buy from local, specialty, and/or broad line food service distributors on a daily or weekly basis. With the rise in e-commerce, consumers are increasingly expecting lower prices, faster service, and higher quality – something that potentially creates the impetus on distribution networks to raise their game.
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PFGC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PFGC has been loosely correlated with USFD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PFGC jumps, then USFD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PFGC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFGC | 100% | -4.29% | ||
| USFD - PFGC | 61% Loosely correlated | -4.20% | ||
| SYY - PFGC | 41% Loosely correlated | -9.33% | ||
| CHEF - PFGC | 39% Loosely correlated | -2.21% | ||
| UNFI - PFGC | 26% Poorly correlated | -3.63% | ||
| AVO - PFGC | 21% Poorly correlated | -4.27% | ||
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USFD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, USFD has been loosely correlated with PFGC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if USFD jumps, then PFGC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To USFD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USFD | 100% | -4.20% | ||
| PFGC - USFD | 59% Loosely correlated | -4.29% | ||
| SYY - USFD | 39% Loosely correlated | -9.33% | ||
| CHEF - USFD | 36% Loosely correlated | -2.21% | ||
| UNFI - USFD | 24% Poorly correlated | -3.63% | ||
| DIT - USFD | 6% Poorly correlated | -2.34% | ||
More | ||||