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PGR vs THG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Progressive (PGR) vs. The Hanover Insurance Group (THG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PGR reported 6% growth in net premiums written for August 2026, though net income declined 22% year-over-year amid a higher combined ratio.
- THG has delivered stronger one-year total shareholder returns of approximately 30%, outpacing PGR’s negative performance over the same period.
- Both companies operate in the property and casualty insurance sector, with PGR maintaining significantly larger scale through personal auto lines representing about 75% of premiums.
- Recent market activity shows PGR trading near $213 with mixed momentum, while THG trades around $227 and benefits from consistent dividend payments.
- Relative positioning favors stability in larger peers during periods of premium growth offset by profitability pressures across the industry.
Introduction
This comparison examines PGR and THG, two property and casualty insurers, to highlight differences in scale, recent performance, and market positioning. Traders and investors focused on the insurance sector may find the analysis relevant when evaluating relative momentum, premium growth trends, and risk profiles within a comparable business model. The review draws on observable data from financial filings and market reports to provide a balanced view of how each stock has responded to recent industry conditions.
PGR Overview and Recent Performance
PGR, The Progressive Corporation, is a major provider of personal and commercial auto insurance along with property coverage. In recent weeks, the stock has experienced volatility, closing near $213 amid broader market fluctuations. August 2026 results showed net premiums written rising 6% year-over-year to $7.61 billion, supported by strength in personal auto lines. However, net income fell 22% to $951 million due to an elevated combined ratio. Year-to-date performance remains negative, though the company maintains a strong capital position and active share repurchase program. Sentiment has been influenced by premium expansion offset by profitability metrics in a competitive auto insurance environment.
THG Overview and Recent Performance
THG, The Hanover Insurance Group, specializes in commercial and personal property-casualty coverage across multiple lines. Recent market activity has shown relative resilience, with the stock trading around $227 and posting approximately 30% one-year total shareholder returns. The company declared its second-quarter dividend in early September 2026. Performance has benefited from steady underwriting results and sector positioning, though the firm operates at a smaller scale than larger peers. Broader timeframe references indicate consistent dividend support and positive momentum in a recovering insurance market, with limited specific catalysts reported in the most recent period.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
PGR operates at substantially larger scale with market capitalization exceeding $120 billion compared to THG’s approximately $8 billion, enabling broader distribution and reinsurance capabilities. Growth drivers differ as PGR emphasizes personal auto premium expansion while THG maintains balanced commercial and personal lines. Recent momentum favors THG on one-year returns, whereas PGR shows stronger top-line premium growth in the latest monthly report. Risk factors include earnings quality concerns for the larger insurer and more limited geographic diversification for the smaller one. Sector exposure remains similar, though market sentiment reflects greater analyst attention on PGR due to its size and visibility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a modestly higher probabilistic preference to THG due to stronger recent one-year performance and dividend stability. PGR demonstrates advantages in scale and premium growth but faces nearer-term profitability pressures. The assessment reflects data-driven pattern recognition rather than forward projections.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PGR is a Buy and THG is a StrongBuy.
PGR | THG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 73 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 62 Fair valued | 42 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 17 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 91 | 53 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 67 | 52 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 46 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
THG's Valuation (42) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (62). This means that THG’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
THG's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (32). This means that THG’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
THG's SMR Rating (53) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PGR (91). This means that THG’s stock grew somewhat faster than PGR’s over the last 12 months.
THG's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (56). This means that THG’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
THG's P/E Growth Rating (52) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (67). This means that THG’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
| PGR | THG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 44% | 1 day ago 45% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 49% | 1 day ago 45% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 46% | 1 day ago 43% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | 1 day ago 44% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 58% | 10 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 49% | 1 day ago 41% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 1 day ago 58% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PGR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while THG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- PGR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- THG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PGR’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while THG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PGR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- THG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PGR (@Property/Casualty Insurance) experienced а -6.39% price change this week, while THG (@Property/Casualty Insurance) price change was -6.12% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Property/Casualty Insurance industry was -4.80%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.08%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.74%.
Reported Earning Dates
PGR is expected to report earnings on Oct 08, 2026.
THG is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Property/Casualty Insurance (-4.80% weekly)Property and casualty companies insure against accidents of non-physical harm, such as lawsuits, damage to personal assets, car crashes and more. Progressive Corporation, Travelers Companies, Inc. and Allstate Corporation are some of the biggest providers of such products.
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PGR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PGR has been closely correlated with HIG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PGR jumps, then HIG could also see price increases.