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PGR vs THG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Progressive Corporation (PGR) vs. The Hanover Insurance Group (THG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PGR is a large-cap personal auto insurance leader with disciplined underwriting, but its shares have lagged recently, trading below their 52-week high.
- THG is a mid-cap property and casualty (P&C) insurer that has meaningfully outperformed its industry over the past three months.
- The two companies differ sharply in scale, sector mix, and valuation, with PGR far larger but THG showing stronger recent relative momentum.
- THG has beaten earnings estimates in four consecutive quarters, while PGR carries a more mixed analyst consensus near "Hold."
- Both companies demonstrate sub-100% combined ratios, though their business models and growth drivers differ considerably.
Introduction
Investors comparing insurers often weigh scale and stability against turnaround momentum and valuation. This stock comparison examines The Progressive Corporation (PGR), one of the largest auto insurers in the United States, against The Hanover Insurance Group (THG), a smaller, diversified property and casualty carrier. Both operate in the same broad financial sector, yet their market positioning, recent relative performance, and risk profiles diverge meaningfully. Growth-oriented traders may focus on THG's momentum and earnings beats, while value-conscious and lower-volatility investors may weigh PGR's dominant franchise and consistent underwriting profitability. Understanding these contrasts can help clarify which profile better fits a given portfolio objective.
PGR Overview and Recent Performance
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is an insurance holding company and a leading underwriter of personal and commercial auto insurance, residential property, and specialty lines. With a market capitalization of roughly $122 billion and tens of millions of policies in force, it benefits from significant scale, dual direct-to-consumer and agency distribution, and advanced telematics-driven pricing through its Snapshot program.
In recent weeks, PGR has continued to grow premiums and policy counts, supported by an expense ratio near 20% and a combined ratio (a measure of losses plus expenses as a percentage of premiums, where results below 100% indicate underwriting profit) that has remained in the mid-to-high 80s. However, stock price performance has been more muted. Shares have declined over the trailing year and remain below prior highs, reflecting a premium valuation that has moderated and a mixed analyst consensus that leans toward "Hold." Investment-portfolio swings and seasonality in growth have at times weighed on sentiment, even as core underwriting results stay strong.
THG Overview and Recent Performance
The Hanover Insurance Group (THG) is a smaller, diversified property and casualty insurer serving individuals and businesses across Core Commercial, Specialty, and Personal Lines. With a market capitalization near $6 billion, it operates at a materially smaller scale than PGR but has delivered standout recent results.
Over the past three months, THG shares gained roughly 26%, compared with a mid-single-digit gain for its industry, and the stock has posted a strong year-to-date return. The company has exceeded earnings estimates in four consecutive quarters, with a notably high average surprise, supported by disciplined pricing, lower catastrophe losses, and rising net investment income. Its trailing return on equity (ROE, a measure of profitability relative to shareholder equity) has held above 20%, well above the industry average. Management has emphasized AI-enabled underwriting and claims automation as structural efficiency levers, while deliberately prioritizing profitability over rapid premium growth in softer property lines.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast is scale and focus. PGR is a dominant personal auto franchise with a national footprint and heavy marketing presence, whereas THG is a diversified mid-cap balancing commercial, specialty, and personal lines. This shapes their growth drivers: PGR grows through policy-count expansion and pricing precision, while THG leans on renewal pricing, specialty expansion, and margin repair in personal lines.
Recent momentum favors THG, which has outperformed both its industry and PGR over recent months. Valuation tells a different story: THG trades at a premium price-to-book multiple relative to peers, reflecting strong execution but less margin for error, while PGR trades at a comparatively modest forward earnings multiple. Risk factors also differ. PGR faces auto-loss-cost and competitive pressures, while THG carries smaller-scale concentration risk, casualty severity uncertainty, and greater sensitivity to catastrophe losses. Investor sentiment has favored THG's earnings momentum, even as PGR retains the stronger overall franchise economics.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI framework would likely lean toward THG in the current environment. The stock's sustained relative outperformance, consecutive earnings beats, and improving underwriting metrics across segments suggest a stronger near-term trend profile. By contrast, PGR displays steadier, more defensive fundamentals but has shown weaker recent price momentum. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: THG's premium valuation and smaller scale introduce execution risk, while PGR's dominant franchise could reassert itself if auto pricing and volume trends firm. The AI verdict reflects current momentum and catalyst alignment rather than a universal judgment on long-term quality.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PGR is a Hold and THG is a Hold.
PGR's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for PGR moved out of oversold territory on September 25, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 15 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 11 of the 15 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PGR as a result. In 60 of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PGR just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where PGR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
PGR moved above its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PGR crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +2.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PGR advanced for three days, in 193 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PGR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
PGR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PGR entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PGR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: PGR's P/B Ratio (3.541) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.992). P/E Ratio (10.510) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.718). PGR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (64.235) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.303). PGR's Dividend Yield (0.066) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.019). P/S Ratio (1.400) is also within normal values, averaging (1.594).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
THG in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on September 22, 2026
THG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 28 of 36 cases where THG's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where THG's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on THG as a result. In 58 of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for THG just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where THG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +1.42% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where THG advanced for three days, in 177 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 137 of 237 cases where THG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
THG moved below its 50-day moving average on September 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for THG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where THG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 43 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.063) is normal, around the industry mean (1.992). P/E Ratio (10.415) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.718). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.120) is also within normal values, averaging (3.303). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.243) is also within normal values, averaging (1.594).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. THG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
PGR | THG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 14 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 59 Fair valued | 43 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 14 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 91 | 53 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 53 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
THG's Valuation (43) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (59). This means that THG’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
THG's Profit vs Risk Rating (14) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (26). This means that THG’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
THG's SMR Rating (53) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PGR (91). This means that THG’s stock grew somewhat faster than PGR’s over the last 12 months.
THG's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (49). This means that THG’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
THG's P/E Growth Rating (53) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (69). This means that THG’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
| PGR | THG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 45% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 50% | 8 days ago 41% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 33% | 1 day ago 58% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PGR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while THG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- PGR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- THG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PGR’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while THG’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PGR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- THG’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PGR (@Property/Casualty Insurance) experienced а +5.11% price change this week, while THG (@Property/Casualty Insurance) price change was +1.09% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Property/Casualty Insurance industry was +2.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.52%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.26%.
Reported Earning Dates
PGR is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
THG is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Property/Casualty Insurance (+2.34% weekly)Property and casualty companies insure against accidents of non-physical harm, such as lawsuits, damage to personal assets, car crashes and more. Progressive Corporation, Travelers Companies, Inc. and Allstate Corporation are some of the biggest providers of such products.
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PGR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PGR has been closely correlated with ALL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PGR jumps, then ALL could also see price increases.
THG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, THG has been closely correlated with HIG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if THG jumps, then HIG could also see price increases.