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PGR vs RLI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Progressive Corporation (PGR) vs. RLI Corp. (RLI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PGR is the largest U.S. personal auto insurer by direct written premium, while RLI is a far smaller specialty property, casualty, and surety underwriter.
- Both stocks trade at similar trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples of roughly 11, despite very different business models and market capitalizations.
- Progressive faces near-term pressure from a rising combined ratio and intensifying auto pricing competition, whereas RLI has maintained a sub-90% combined ratio but faces moderating growth and forecast earnings declines.
- RLI has shown stronger recent relative performance, positive year-to-date, while PGR has declined over the past 12 months and trades below its 52-week high.
- Analyst consensus for both names is broadly "Hold," with meaningful disagreement among firms on fair value.
Introduction
Progressive Corporation and RLI Corp. both operate in the property and casualty insurance sector, yet they represent sharply different corners of the industry. Progressive is a consumer-facing auto insurance giant competing on scale, data, and direct distribution, while RLI is a niche specialty insurer focused on excess and surplus lines, surety, and targeted commercial risks. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a large-cap growth-and-margin story against a smaller, disciplined specialty underwriter. Traders and long-term investors alike may use this analysis to evaluate relative performance, market positioning, and the distinct risk profiles each name carries in the current environment.
PGR Overview and Recent Performance
PGR, or Progressive Corporation, is the largest personal auto insurer in the United States, with a business also spanning commercial auto, residential property, and specialty property-casualty lines. In recent market activity, the stock has traded in the low-to-mid $210s, well below its 52-week high of roughly $245 and down about 7–8% year-to-date. Sentiment has been shaped by a cooling of the underwriting cycle: Progressive reported a combined ratio (a measure of underwriting profitability, where a figure below 100% signals an underwriting profit) near 97.5% in August, driven by rising loss costs and a more competitive personal auto pricing environment. Analysts have reacted with a mix of Buy and Hold ratings and a consensus price target around $233, reflecting cautious optimism despite near-term margin pressure. Strong long-term returns and a low beta underscore the stock's established track record.
RLI Overview and Recent Performance
RLI is a specialty insurer underwriting niche property, casualty, and surety risks through wholesale and retail brokers, and it carries an A++ "Superior" rating from AM Best. In recent weeks, RLI has traded near the mid-$50s, roughly flat to slightly positive on a year-to-date basis while remaining below its 52-week high of about $67. The company posted a solid second quarter, including a combined ratio near 86%, net investment income growth, and a return on equity (ROE, a measure of profit generated from shareholder capital) around 25%. However, growth has been modest — total gross written premium rose only about 3% — and some segments, notably surety, contracted. Recent executive promotions signal continuity, but analysts note a higher expense ratio and retained catastrophe exposure as key watchpoints.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between these two insurers is scale and focus. PGR is a mass-market personal auto insurer with a market capitalization above $120 billion, competing through telematics, data analytics, and aggressive advertising. RLI, with a market cap near $5 billion, targets specialized risks in a less commoditized, underwriting-driven franchise. Growth drivers differ accordingly: Progressive's story hinges on policy-in-force growth and pricing discipline in a crowded auto market, while RLI's depends on disciplined niche underwriting and investment income.
On recent momentum, RLI has held up better, with a positive year-to-date return versus Progressive's decline, though RLI also trades well below its highs. Risk factors diverge as well: Progressive is exposed to competitive auto pricing and claim-cost inflation, whereas RLI faces rising expenses, softer property pricing, and greater retained catastrophe risk. Both carry low betas and similar P/E ratios, but sentiment is mixed — Progressive leans toward cautious Hold with some Buy support, while RLI's analyst ratings skew toward Hold and even Reduce.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward RLI for its relatively stronger recent trend consistency and more stable underwriting results, while acknowledging PGR's superior scale, liquidity, and long-term growth record. RLI's positive year-to-date momentum and sub-90% combined ratio suggest steadier near-term positioning, whereas Progressive currently contends with a re-accelerating combined ratio and competitive pricing headwinds. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: a sustained improvement in Progressive's loss ratio or a catalyst in its direct-channel growth could quickly shift relative positioning. Neither name presents a clear momentum advantage across all timeframes, and both warrant monitoring against their respective catalysts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PGR is a StrongBuy and RLI is a StrongBuy.
PGR in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026
The 10-day moving average for PGR crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PGR as a result. In 51 of 94 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PGR just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where PGR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
PGR moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PGR advanced for three days, in 193 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 170 of 328 cases where PGR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 52%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PGR moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 59%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
PGR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 52, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. PGR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.875) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.598). P/E Ratio (11.474) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.666). PGR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (64.235) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.303). Dividend Yield (0.002) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.400) is also within normal values, averaging (1.594).
Momentum Indicator for RLI turns positive, indicating new upward trend
RLI saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 80 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 49 of the 80 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RLI just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where RLI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
RLI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for RLI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 33%.
Following a +6.86% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RLI advanced for three days, in 185 of 337 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 130 of 245 cases where RLI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 53%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RLI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
RLI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RLI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 52, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.399) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.598). P/E Ratio (13.606) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.666). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.120) is also within normal values, averaging (3.303). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. RLI's P/S Ratio (2.829) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.594).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
PGR | RLI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 44 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 51 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 91 | 40 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 60 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RLI's Valuation (78) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (94). This means that RLI’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
PGR's Profit vs Risk Rating (24) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as RLI (51). This means that PGR’s stock grew similarly to RLI’s over the last 12 months.
RLI's SMR Rating (40) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PGR (91). This means that RLI’s stock grew somewhat faster than PGR’s over the last 12 months.
PGR's Price Growth Rating (25) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as RLI (40). This means that PGR’s stock grew similarly to RLI’s over the last 12 months.
PGR's P/E Growth Rating (48) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as RLI (60). This means that PGR’s stock grew similarly to RLI’s over the last 12 months.
| PGR | RLI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 40% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 57% | 6 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | N/A | 21 days ago 52% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 41% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 53% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PGR’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while RLI’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- PGR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- RLI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PGR’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RLI’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PGR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- RLI’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PGR (@Property/Casualty Insurance) experienced а +4.63% price change this week, while RLI (@Property/Casualty Insurance) price change was +6.05% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Property/Casualty Insurance industry was +0.01%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.90%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.07%.
Reported Earning Dates
PGR is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
RLI is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Property/Casualty Insurance (+0.01% weekly)Property and casualty companies insure against accidents of non-physical harm, such as lawsuits, damage to personal assets, car crashes and more. Progressive Corporation, Travelers Companies, Inc. and Allstate Corporation are some of the biggest providers of such products.
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PGR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PGR has been closely correlated with HIG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PGR jumps, then HIG could also see price increases.
RLI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RLI has been closely correlated with HIG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RLI jumps, then HIG could also see price increases.
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