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RJF vs STT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Raymond James Financial (RJF) vs. State Street Corporation (STT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- RJF (Raymond James Financial) is a diversified wealth, capital markets, and asset management firm with record client assets and strong advisor recruiting, but recent analyst target cuts signal caution on valuation and growth.
- STT (State Street Corporation) is a global custody and institutional servicing leader that has posted record revenue, net interest income (NII), and fee income, along with a rising dividend.
- State Street has shown stronger recent relative performance, with a roughly 61% one-year total return, versus a more modest recent pullback and mixed analyst sentiment for Raymond James.
- The two companies serve different client bases: Raymond James skews toward individual wealth and advisory, while State Street serves institutional investors and asset managers.
- Both firms are investing in AI and digital capabilities, but State Street is monetizing AI and tokenization at a larger, more enterprise-wide scale.
Introduction
Investors weighing diversified financial services names often compare firms with very different earnings engines. Raymond James Financial and State Street Corporation both operate across wealth, asset management, and markets, yet their revenue mixes and client bases differ substantially. This stock comparison examines their relative performance, business models, and market positioning to help traders and long-term investors assess which franchise is better aligned with the current environment. By evaluating recent momentum, growth drivers, and risk factors side by side, readers can form a clearer view of how these two financial institutions stack up in today's market.
RJF Overview and Recent Performance
RJF, or Raymond James Financial, is a diversified financial services company serving individuals, corporations, and municipalities through its Private Client Group, Capital Markets, and Asset Management segments. In its most recent quarterly results, the company reported record revenues of roughly $3.93 billion, up about 16% year over year, alongside a 33% increase in pre-tax income. Client assets under administration reached approximately $1.86 trillion, reflecting strong advisor recruiting and net new asset growth, while the firm completed the Clark Capital acquisition to expand its asset management footprint.
Despite solid fundamentals, sentiment has cooled in recent weeks. Several major banks, including Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, and UBS, trimmed price targets, citing valuation concerns and moderating capital markets activity. The stock has pulled back from earlier highs, and modeled fair-value estimates have edged lower. Higher legal expenses tied to cash sweep programs and persistent cost pressures have also weighed on the outlook, even as higher rates support net interest income.
STT Overview and Recent Performance
STT, or State Street Corporation, is one of the world's largest custodians and institutional servicing providers, offering investment servicing, investment management, and markets services to institutional clients. The firm has delivered a streak of record results, with total revenues exceeding $3.8 billion in recent quarters and fee revenue, NII, and total revenue all reaching record levels. Assets under custody and administration (AUC/A) climbed to a record of more than $54 trillion, while assets under management (AUM) surpassed $5.6 trillion, supported by strong ETF inflows and new business wins.
State Street has also announced plans to raise its quarterly dividend by 10%, following a successful stress test, underscoring capital strength. Its SPDR ETF franchise, anchored by the SPY fund, remains a major growth engine. While the stock has pulled back modestly after a strong run, its roughly 61% one-year total return reflects durable momentum and improving profitability, including a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio near 10.6% and a return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) around 20%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks lies in their client focus and revenue drivers. Raymond James is more exposed to individual wealth management and advisory activity, where advisor recruiting, fee-based assets, and securities-based lending drive results. State Street, by contrast, generates the bulk of its revenue from institutional custody, servicing fees, and asset management, making it more sensitive to global market levels and institutional flows.
On growth momentum, State Street has outpaced Raymond James over the trailing year, aided by record AUC/A and AUM, strong ETF inflows, and rising NII. Raymond James has also grown, but its capital markets segment remains below normalized activity levels, and analyst sentiment has turned more cautious on valuation. In terms of risk, Raymond James faces cash-sweep litigation and advisor-related expenses, while State Street contends with ETF fee compression and concentrated fee-based revenue. Both maintain strong capital positions, but State Street's institutional scale and dividend growth give it a differentiated return profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor STT over RJF in the current environment. State Street's record revenue, rising NII and fee guidance, dividend increase, and stronger one-year total return suggest more durable momentum and clearer catalysts. Raymond James remains a high-quality franchise with solid fundamentals, but its recent analyst target reductions and valuation concerns introduce more uncertainty. The assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, and relative positioning could shift as market conditions evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is RJF is a Buy and STT is a Buy.
RJF's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for RJF moved out of oversold territory on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 30 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RJF as a result. In 46 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RJF just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where RJF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +0.27% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RJF advanced for three days, in 210 of 355 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RJF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
RJF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for RJF entered a downward trend on October 27, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RJF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.458) is normal, around the industry mean (2.436). P/E Ratio (13.884) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.642). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.791) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.197) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
STT's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for STT moved out of oversold territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 17 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 15 of the 17 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on STT as a result. In 51 of 72 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for STT just turned positive on October 26, 2026. Looking at past instances where STT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +1.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where STT advanced for three days, in 240 of 368 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
STT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 36 of 66 cases where STT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where STT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator for STT entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 38 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. STT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.882) is normal, around the industry mean (2.436). P/E Ratio (14.697) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.642). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.671) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.453) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
RJF | STT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 16 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 13 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 9 | 8 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 22 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 38 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RJF's Valuation (83) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as STT (84) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that RJF’s stock grew similarly to STT’s over the last 12 months.
STT's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as RJF (28) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that STT’s stock grew similarly to RJF’s over the last 12 months.
STT's SMR Rating (8) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as RJF (9) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that STT’s stock grew similarly to RJF’s over the last 12 months.
STT's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as RJF (54) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that STT’s stock grew similarly to RJF’s over the last 12 months.
STT's P/E Growth Rating (22) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for RJF (59) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that STT’s stock grew somewhat faster than RJF’s over the last 12 months.
| RJF | STT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 2 days ago 88% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 2 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 59% | 6 days ago 65% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 2 days ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
RJF’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while STT’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- RJF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- STT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
RJF’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while STT’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- RJF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- STT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
RJF (@Investment Managers) experienced а +2.25% price change this week, while STT (@Investment Managers) price change was -0.37% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was +0.11%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.61%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.24%.
Reported Earning Dates
RJF is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
STT is expected to report earnings on Jan 15, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (+0.11% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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STT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, STT has been closely correlated with NTRS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if STT jumps, then NTRS could also see price increases.