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AGI or FNV or RGLD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Alamos Gold (AGI) vs. Franco-Nevada (FNV) vs. Royal Gold (RGLD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AGI, a gold producer, delivered strong Q1 2026 results with record revenues of $597 million and free cash flow of $102 million, supported by robust gold production.
- FNV and RGLD, both royalty and streaming companies, benefit from lower operational risks compared to producer AGI.
- Year-to-date, FNV leads with approximately 12% gains, followed by AGI and RGLD at around 8-12%, amid recent sector pullbacks of 9-11% over the past month.
- Over one year, FNV shows 41% returns, outperforming RGLD (35%) and AGI (60-74% in some metrics, adjusted for volatility).
- Valuation-wise, AGI trades at a lower P/E ratio of about 17x versus 40x for FNV and 29x for RGLD.
- RGLD announced a $500 million share buyback and record Q1 revenue, enhancing shareholder value in recent market activity.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines AGI (Alamos Gold Inc.), FNV (Franco-Nevada Corporation), and RGLD (Royal Gold, Inc.), all key players in the gold sector amid rising precious metals prices. AGI operates as a mid-tier gold producer, while FNV and RGLD focus on royalties and streams, offering leveraged exposure with reduced operational risks. Traders seeking momentum in gold-related equities and long-term investors eyeing sector stability will find this analysis relevant for evaluating relative performance, valuation sensitivity, and market positioning in the current environment.
AGI Overview and Recent Performance
Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) is a Canadian-based intermediate gold producer with operations in Canada and Mexico, including key assets like Island Gold and Young-Davidson mines. In recent weeks, AGI reported Q1 2026 results featuring record quarterly revenues of $596.7 million, gold production of 123,900 ounces, and free cash flow of $101.7 million, driven by elevated gold prices. The stock experienced volatility, with a roughly 10% pullback over the past month but year-to-date gains around 8-12% and over 60% in the past year. Sentiment has been bolstered by reserve growth and expansion plans at Island Gold, though higher costs in Canada influenced margins. Trading near $42-43, AGI reflects producer leverage to gold prices with a P/E ratio of approximately 17x.
FNV Overview and Recent Performance
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) is a leading royalty and streaming company with a diversified portfolio of precious metals assets across multiple geographies, avoiding direct mining operations. Recent market activity saw FNV shares decline about 11% over the past month amid broader gold sector weakness, yet it maintains year-to-date returns of around 12% and 41% over one year. The company's model provides stability through fixed-cost streams, with strong cash flows supporting dividends. Trading around $232, FNV commands a higher P/E of about 40x, reflecting its premium for low-risk exposure to gold and silver production from partners worldwide.
RGLD Overview and Recent Performance
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) acquires and manages precious metal streams and royalties globally, focusing on gold, silver, and other metals without operational involvement. In recent weeks, RGLD posted record Q1 2026 revenue of $469.1 million, operating cash flow of $293.6 million, and announced a $500 million share buyback alongside a dividend increase. The stock dipped approximately 10% monthly but holds year-to-date gains near 8% and 35% annually. Positive sentiment stems from portfolio growth and liquidity expansion to $1.1 billion. At around $239, RGLD's P/E of 29x positions it between producer and pure-play royalty peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AGI’s producer model offers direct leverage to gold output and exploration upside but exposes it to cost inflation and operational risks (e.g., mining challenges in Canada), contrasting with the royalty/streaming approaches of FNV and RGLD, which provide predictable cash flows from diverse global assets. Growth drivers differ: AGI via mine expansions, while royalties grow through new deals. Recent momentum favors FNV YTD, but all faced similar 10% monthly dips tied to gold price fluctuations. Risk profiles show royalties lower beta (0.4-0.9 vs. AGI’s 1.3), with AGI most sensitive to AISC (all-in sustaining costs). Valuations highlight AGI’s attractiveness at lower P/E, versus premiums for FNV and RGLD stability. Market sentiment leans toward royalties for defense, producers for offense in gold bull markets.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors RGLD due to its record Q1 results, $500 million buyback signaling confidence, strong cash flow trends, and balanced positioning between growth and stability. While FNV leads YTD performance and AGI offers value, RGLD’s catalysts and relative momentum suggest higher probability of near-term outperformance in the gold sector.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AGI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileFNV’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and RGLD’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- AGI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- FNV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- RGLD’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AGI’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FNV’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and RGLD’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AGI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- FNV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- RGLD’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AGI (@Precious Metals) experienced а -0.78% price change this week, while FNV (@Precious Metals) price change was -4.04% , and RGLD (@Precious Metals) price fluctuated +0.73% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was +1.32%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.06%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.20%.
Reported Earning Dates
AGI is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
FNV is expected to report earnings on Aug 12, 2026.
RGLD is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (+1.32% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
| AGI | FNV | RGLD | |
| Capitalization | 14.8B | 40.5B | 17.6B |
| EBITDA | 1.55B | 2.06B | 1.03B |
| Gain YTD | -8.576 | 1.433 | -6.254 |
| P/E Ratio | 14.02 | 29.50 | 25.10 |
| Revenue | 2.07B | 2.11B | 1.31B |
| Total Cash | N/A | 434M | 234M |
| Total Debt | 220M | 82.6M | 596M |
AGI | FNV | RGLD | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 59 | 59 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 30 Undervalued | 29 Undervalued | 24 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 52 | 55 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 37 | 47 | 66 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | 61 | 62 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 98 | 91 | 68 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RGLD's Valuation (24) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (29) and is in the same range as AGI (30). This means that RGLD's stock grew similarly to FNV’s and similarly to AGI’s over the last 12 months.
AGI's Profit vs Risk Rating (42) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (52) and is in the same range as RGLD (55). This means that AGI's stock grew similarly to FNV’s and similarly to RGLD’s over the last 12 months.
AGI's SMR Rating (37) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (47) and is in the same range as RGLD (66). This means that AGI's stock grew similarly to FNV’s and similarly to RGLD’s over the last 12 months.
FNV's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as RGLD (62) and is in the same range as AGI (63). This means that FNV's stock grew similarly to RGLD’s and similarly to AGI’s over the last 12 months.
RGLD's P/E Growth Rating (68) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (91) and is in the same range as AGI (98). This means that RGLD's stock grew similarly to FNV’s and similarly to AGI’s over the last 12 months.
| AGI | FNV | RGLD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 7 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 80% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 17 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 62% | 5 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 59% |
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FNV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FNV has been closely correlated with WPM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FNV jumps, then WPM could also see price increases.