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AMBA or MTSI or NVMI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) vs. MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) vs. Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MTSI leads year-to-date performance with over 72% gains, fueled by demand for analog semiconductors in AI optical and data center applications.
- NVMI shows robust 51% YTD growth, supported by metrology tools essential for advanced semiconductor manufacturing amid AI chip production surges.
- AMBA remains relatively flat YTD at 0.21% but has surged nearly 29% in the recent month, reflecting edge AI momentum.
- All three stocks operate in the semiconductor sector with AI exposure, but MTSI and NVMI exhibit stronger market caps over $15B compared to AMBA's $3.1B.
- Recent analyst actions include price target raises for MTSI and coverage initiations for NVMI, signaling positive sentiment shifts.
Introduction
This comparison examines AMBA, MTSI, and NVMI, three semiconductor companies positioned at key points in the AI and advanced tech supply chain. Investors tracking relative performance in the chip sector, particularly those focused on AI-driven growth, edge computing, and manufacturing tools, will find value here. Amid recent market activity highlighting AI infrastructure demand, these stocks offer insights into momentum, valuation sensitivity, and sector tailwinds for portfolio positioning or trading decisions.
AMBA Overview and Recent Performance
Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) designs low-power system-on-a-chip (SoC) semiconductors and software for edge AI applications, including video processing for automotive, IoT security cameras, and consumer devices. In recent market activity, AMBA shares have climbed about 29% over the past month and 50% yearly, trading around $71 with a $3.1B market cap. Sentiment has improved with an emphasis on edge AI expansion and semi-custom chips, alongside upcoming Q1 FY2027 earnings. However, YTD performance is flat at 0.21%, reflecting broader volatility in smaller-cap semis.
MTSI Overview and Recent Performance
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) supplies analog semiconductors for RF, microwave, and lightwave applications in telecom, defense, and data centers. Recent weeks have seen strong gains, with shares near $295 and a $22B market cap, up 72% YTD and 25% monthly. Highlights include next-gen AI optical chip exposure and Q1 revenue beats at $272M, boosting sentiment. Analyst price targets have risen, such as Stifel's to $300, amid sustained demand in 5G/6G infrastructure.
NVMI Overview and Recent Performance
Nova Ltd. (NVMI) provides metrology and process control systems for semiconductor manufacturing, aiding lithography, etch, and advanced packaging. Shares trade around $494 with a $15.7B market cap, up 51% YTD following Q4 revenue of $223M and EPS beats. Recent activity shows volatility with short-term dips but gains tied to metrology demand in AI chip production. Upcoming Q1 2026 results and positive coverage have supported sentiment, though shares remain sensitive to semi cycles.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AMBA focuses on edge AI SoCs for consumer and auto, contrasting MTSI's analog RF components for infrastructure and NVMI's metrology tools for fab processes. Growth drivers include AI for all, but MTSI and NVMI benefit more directly from data center and advanced node expansions. Recent momentum favors MTSI (72% YTD) over NVMI (51%) and AMBA (flat), with AMBA showing higher volatility due to its $3B cap versus peers' $15-22B. Risk factors: AMBA's elevated forward P/E near 95x signals growth sensitivity; all face semi cyclicality. Market sentiment tilts toward infrastructure plays like MTSI amid AI buildout.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors MTSI based on superior trend consistency, YTD outperformance, and catalysts in AI optical/datacenter demand, positioning it strongly relative to peers. This probabilistic edge stems from observable momentum and analyst support, though all three merit monitoring amid semiconductor tailwinds.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMBA’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMTSI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and NVMI’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- AMBA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MTSI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NVMI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMBA’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTSI’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and NVMI’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMBA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MTSI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NVMI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AMBA (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а +5.12% price change this week, while MTSI (@Semiconductors) price change was +19.50% , and NVMI (@Electronic Production Equipment) price fluctuated -4.40% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +3.21%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +27.85%, and the average quarterly price growth was +145.22%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +7.79%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +46.60%, and the average quarterly price growth was +84.58%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMBA is expected to report earnings on May 28, 2026.
MTSI is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
NVMI is expected to report earnings on May 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+3.21% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (+7.79% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| AMBA | MTSI | NVMI | |
| Capitalization | 3.42B | 27.7B | 15.7B |
| EBITDA | -56.94M | 276M | 276M |
| Gain YTD | 10.347 | 111.794 | 50.120 |
| P/E Ratio | N/A | 154.37 | 61.93 |
| Revenue | 391M | 1.07B | 881M |
| Total Cash | 313M | 665M | 1.05B |
| Total Debt | 13.4M | 377M | 799M |
AMBA | MTSI | NVMI | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 29 | 74 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 86 Overvalued | 73 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 4 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 60 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 35 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 19 | 9 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVMI's Valuation (73) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as MTSI (86) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as AMBA (88) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that NVMI's stock grew similarly to MTSI’s and similarly to AMBA’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NVMI (8) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for AMBA (100) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that MTSI's stock grew similarly to NVMI’s and significantly faster than AMBA’s over the last 12 months.
NVMI's SMR Rating (41) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as MTSI (60) in the Semiconductors industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for AMBA (94) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that NVMI's stock grew similarly to MTSI’s and somewhat faster than AMBA’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NVMI (37) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is in the same range as AMBA (39) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that MTSI's stock grew similarly to NVMI’s and similarly to AMBA’s over the last 12 months.
AMBA's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NVMI (9) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is in the same range as MTSI (19) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that AMBA's stock grew similarly to NVMI’s and similarly to MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
| AMBA | MTSI | NVMI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 80% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 87% | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | N/A | 1 day ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 80% | 16 days ago 69% | 10 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 84% | 1 day ago 63% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 73% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| QQHG | 64.83 | N/A | N/A |
| Invesco QQQ Hedged Advantage ETF | |||
| GSEP | 40.44 | -0.01 | -0.01% |
| FT Vest U.S. Eq Mod Buffr ETF - Sep | |||
| KURE | 17.29 | -0.09 | -0.52% |
| KraneShares MSCI All China Hlth Care ETF | |||
| INTF | 41.22 | -0.24 | -0.57% |
| iShares International Equity Factor ETF | |||
| SYZ | 29.09 | -0.31 | -1.06% |
| Lazard US Systematic Small Cap Eq ETF | |||
AMBA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AMBA has been closely correlated with ADI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AMBA jumps, then ADI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AMBA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMBA | 100% | -1.94% | ||
| ADI - AMBA | 68% Closely correlated | -0.73% | ||
| RMBS - AMBA | 68% Closely correlated | -3.12% | ||
| NXPI - AMBA | 65% Loosely correlated | -3.84% | ||
| MTSI - AMBA | 65% Loosely correlated | -0.85% | ||
| SLAB - AMBA | 65% Loosely correlated | -0.25% | ||
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NVMI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVMI has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVMI jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVMI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVMI | 100% | -6.28% | ||
| LRCX - NVMI | 78% Closely correlated | -2.30% | ||
| KLAC - NVMI | 78% Closely correlated | -1.83% | ||
| CAMT - NVMI | 76% Closely correlated | -15.83% | ||
| AMAT - NVMI | 74% Closely correlated | -2.80% | ||
| ASML - NVMI | 69% Closely correlated | -2.87% | ||
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