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BURL or ROST or TJX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Burlington Stores (BURL) vs. Ross Stores (ROST) vs. The TJX Companies (TJX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- All three are off-price apparel and home retailers, but they differ sharply in scale: TJX is the global leader with roughly $62 billion in trailing-12-month revenue, ROST generates about $24.5 billion, and BURL about $12 billion.
- ROST has shown the strongest recent momentum, trading near 52-week highs after a 10% comparable-sales gain, while TJX and BURL have each pulled back meaningfully from recent peaks.
- BURL offers the highest unit-growth runway, expanding its store base at the fastest pace in its history, but carries more sensitivity to execution and same-store-sales trends.
- TJX is the most geographically diversified and lowest-beta name in the group, yet its shares corrected roughly 17% in recent weeks despite solid results.
- All three trade in a broadly similar valuation band, making relative performance, momentum, and market positioning the key differentiators in this stock comparison.
Introduction
Burlington Stores, Ross Stores, and The TJX Companies sit at the core of the U.S. off-price retail sector, a segment that has historically outperformed during periods of cautious consumer spending. Comparing these three stocks is useful for investors weighing growth potential against stability, and for traders assessing relative performance and momentum. Because they compete for a similar value-oriented shopper, their diverging stock trajectories in recent weeks offer a clear view of how market sentiment differentiates otherwise comparable business models. This analysis examines business context, recent performance, and market positioning to help readers evaluate which name currently presents the most compelling risk-reward profile.
BURL Overview and Recent Performance
Burlington Stores, Inc. operates off-price retail stores selling branded apparel, accessories, and home goods at discounts to department-store prices. The company has been executing an aggressive "Burlington 2.0" transformation focused on smaller-format, high-productivity stores. Recent quarters have delivered double-digit total sales growth, margin expansion, and rising adjusted earnings per share (EPS), supported by new-store openings and supply-chain productivity gains. In its most recent quarter, comparable-store sales rose modestly while adjusted EPS increased sharply on merchandise-margin improvement.
Despite strong fundamentals, BURL shares have corrected significantly in recent weeks, falling well below their all-time high reached earlier in the year. The decline reflects elevated investor expectations, caution around consumer spending, and the temporary same-store-sales "cannibalization" that accompanies rapid store expansion. The company has also reinvested tariff refunds into lower prices rather than near-term profit, a strategy aimed at protecting market share. This combination of robust growth and heightened volatility makes BURL the highest-beta, highest-opportunity name in the group.
ROST Overview and Recent Performance
Ross Stores, Inc. operates two off-price chains, Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS, serving primarily middle- and lower-to-moderate-income households. The company has delivered standout results in recent quarters, with comparable-store sales growth driven overwhelmingly by customer traffic — including new, lapsed, and higher-frequency shoppers. Its most recent quarter produced double-digit comparable sales and a sizable EPS beat, with management raising full-year guidance and expanding its store-opening plan to about 115 locations.
ROST shares have been among the strongest performers in the off-price group, rallying substantially year-to-date and trading near all-time highs. Some of the recent profit uplift reflected one-time tariff refunds, but even excluding those benefits, operating margin expanded well above plan. The stock's sustained momentum, improving vendor relationships, and broadening customer base have reinforced positive market sentiment. Its main consideration is valuation, which has expanded alongside the share-price advance.
TJX Overview and Recent Performance
The TJX Companies, Inc. is the world's largest off-price retailer, operating T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, Sierra, and Homesense in the U.S., plus TK Maxx and Homesense internationally. Its scale, buying power, and geographic diversification distinguish it from its two smaller rivals. Recent results have been solid: comparable-store sales grew in the mid-single digits, EPS rose sharply year-over-year, and the company increased its share-repurchase plans while raising its long-term store target.
Paradoxically, TJX shares have declined sharply in recent weeks, giving back much of their earlier-year gains and moving into negative year-to-date territory. The pullback appears tied to profit-taking after a lengthy rally, a more measured pace of comparable-sales guidance, and broad-based pressure on consumer-discretionary names. With the lowest beta in the group, a growing dividend, and the most defensive balance sheet, TJX now trades below its 200-day moving average, a notable contrast to its prior leadership.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Scale and diversification are the clearest contrasts. TJX generates roughly five times BURL's revenue and benefits from international exposure that reduces reliance on any single market; ROST sits between the two, with a large U.S. footprint and a secondary value banner. Growth drivers differ as well: BURL leans on aggressive unit growth, ROST on traffic-driven same-store-sales momentum, and TJX on steady, compounding comps plus buybacks and dividends.
Risk profiles also diverge. BURL's rapid expansion creates temporary same-store-sales cannibalization and greater execution sensitivity, reflected in its higher beta. ROST's strength has been broad but partly aided by one-time tariff refunds, warranting attention to underlying, organic margin trends. TJX is the most defensive, with the lowest beta and a reliable dividend, though its recent share-price correction signals that even market leaders face sentiment reversals. On valuation, all three trade within a comparable range of roughly the mid-20s to high-20s on trailing earnings, meaning none offers an obvious discount.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors — trend consistency, relative momentum, stability, and near-term catalysts — Tickeron's AI would most likely favor ROST in the current environment. Its combination of double-digit comparable-sales growth, upward guidance revisions, and shares trading near 52-week highs reflects the strongest trend consistency of the three. BURL presents a higher-growth but more volatile profile better suited to momentum-tolerant investors, while TJX's recent pullback could represent attractive value for longer-horizon, lower-risk investors if sentiment stabilizes. These assessments are probabilistic and reflect current market conditions rather than a definitive forecast.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
BURL sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
BURL saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 21, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 42 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BURL as a result. In 64 of 95 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The 50-day moving average for BURL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 25, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BURL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BURL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 23 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BURL advanced for three days, in 219 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
BURL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 181 of 250 cases where BURL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 72%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 1 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 72 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BURL's P/B Ratio (7.769) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.830). P/E Ratio (21.798) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.232). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.955) is also within normal values, averaging (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.212) is also within normal values, averaging (0.652).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. BURL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BURL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
ROST in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
The 10-day moving average for ROST crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ROST as a result. In 55 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ROST just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where ROST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +1.63% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ROST advanced for three days, in 212 of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 27 of 63 cases where ROST's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 43%.
ROST moved below its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ROST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator for ROST entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 45 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ROST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ROST's P/B Ratio (10.863) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.830). P/E Ratio (27.527) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.232). ROST's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.542) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. ROST's P/S Ratio (2.952) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.652).
Momentum Indicator for TJX turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TJX saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on September 22, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 71 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 41 of the 71 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 58%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TJX just turned positive on September 18, 2026. Looking at past instances where TJX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
TJX moved above its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TJX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
Following a +1.92% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TJX advanced for three days, in 193 of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 146 of 292 cases where TJX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TJX moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 12 of the 40 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 30%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 22 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TJX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 37%.
TJX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TJX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: TJX's P/B Ratio (14.981) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.830). P/E Ratio (26.519) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.232). TJX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.543) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. TJX's P/S Ratio (2.210) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.652).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
BURL | ROST | TJX | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 85 | 50 | 44 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 72 Overvalued | 94 Overvalued | 93 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 12 | 24 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 24 | 18 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 74 | 47 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 77 | 27 | 64 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 1 | 45 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BURL's Valuation (72) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as TJX (93) and is in the same range as ROST (94). This means that BURL's stock grew similarly to TJX’s and similarly to ROST’s over the last 12 months.
ROST's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as TJX (24) and is significantly better than the same rating for BURL (100). This means that ROST's stock grew similarly to TJX’s and significantly faster than BURL’s over the last 12 months.
TJX's SMR Rating (18) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as ROST (24) and is in the same range as BURL (25). This means that TJX's stock grew similarly to ROST’s and similarly to BURL’s over the last 12 months.
ROST's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as TJX (49) and is in the same range as BURL (74). This means that ROST's stock grew similarly to TJX’s and similarly to BURL’s over the last 12 months.
ROST's P/E Growth Rating (27) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TJX (64) and is somewhat better than the same rating for BURL (77). This means that ROST's stock grew somewhat faster than TJX’s and somewhat faster than BURL’s over the last 12 months.
| BURL | ROST | TJX | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 90% | N/A | 3 days ago 30% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 43% | 4 days ago 44% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 76% | 6 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 39% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 72% | 7 days ago 62% | 7 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 67% | 5 days ago 53% | 5 days ago 37% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | N/A | 3 days ago 37% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 32% | 3 days ago 50% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BURL’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ROST’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and TJX’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- BURL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ROST’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TJX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BURL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ROST’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and TJX’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BURL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ROST’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TJX’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BURL (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) experienced а -5.72% price change this week, while ROST (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) price change was -3.20% , and TJX (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) price fluctuated -1.54% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Apparel/Footwear Retail industry was -2.54%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
BURL is expected to report earnings on Nov 24, 2026.
ROST is expected to report earnings on Nov 19, 2026.
TJX is expected to report earnings on Nov 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Apparel/Footwear Retail (-2.54% weekly)Companies in the apparel and/or footwear retail industry sell clothing, accessories and footwear, for different age groups and genders. The industry’s product categories could range from basics, such as underwear, to luxury items. Some retailers source items from wholesalers or an apparel brand to sell in their stores; some others are licensed to make and market their own retail goods under particular brands. Several companies outsource production of clothing to developing/emerging economies where labor costs are relatively inexpensive. Apparel retail is often influenced by fashion trends, and many companies feel the need to adapt to what’s “in vogue” to retain customers and attract new ones. A major disruption in this industry has been the burgeoning trend in digital shopping – to compete with rapidly growing e-commerce, even traditional retail players are upping the ante on their online platforms. Much of the products’ performance in apparel/footwear retail is cyclical, i.e., economic boom times encourage consumer spending, while recessions induce thriftiness among people. Some large-cap U.S. apparel/footwear retail companies include TJX Companies Inc., Ross Stores, Inc., Lululemon Athletica Inc. and Burlington Stores, Inc.
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